Ohio Playoff Berth Info
(Oct. 26, 2009 - after week #9)


Division I     Division II     Division III     Division IV     Division V     Division VI

(Nov. 1, 2009) Of the eight teams in each region that I listed as having the best playoff chances (going into the last week of the regular season), 178 out of 192 made the playoffs (93%).  Of the 14 teams I did not correctly pick, 11 of them were teams that had the 9th-best probability in their region.  This means that 189 of the 192 playoff teams (98%) were shown in the top nine in their region here.  The other three teams were Canton McKinley in Region 2 (which upset rival Massillon Washington, and got help from losses by Steele, Perrysburg, and St. John's Jesuit), Pickerington North in Region 3 (which was helped by Groveport-Madison's upset loss, as well as losses by Delware Hayes and Troy), and Campbell Memorial in Region 13 (aided by losses by St. Clairsville, Perry, Cleveland Central Catholic, and L2 help against Belmont Union Local).  I am not aware of any mistakes where I said a team was either definitely in with a win or definitely out in a loss, and this turned out to be untrue.  Teams that I correctly picked to make the playoffs are shown in green, those that were picked but did not qualify are in red, and teams that unexpectedly earned berths are in blue.


The playoff percentages below are based on 25,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  They are not based on the favored team winning every remaining regular-season game.

If a team is shown at 100%, this indicates that they made the playoffs in all of the simulations (but still may not have mathematically clenched a playoff berth).  By comparison, the percentage for a team that made the playoffs in 99.98% of the simulations would be rounded down to 99%.

The numbers in parenthesis are conditional probabilities of making the playoffs, based on finishing the regular season with the specified number of wins.  For example 8W-19.1H-73% means that the team would have approximately 19.1 Harbin points and a 73% chance of receiving a playoff berth, if they finish the regular season with an 8-2 record.

Teams are listed in order of likelihood of earning a playoff berth (not by projected seed).  For each region, the projected Harbin point cut-off is noted.  This is the estimated number of points the #8 seed in the region will have at the end of the regular season.

Disclaimer: These numbers are only as good as the information on which they are based.  Incorrect scores, wins later forfeited, incomplete schedule information (particularly regarding non-OHSAA teams), or even error in the computational coding could render any conclusions inaccurate.  The owner of fantastic50.net takes no responsibility for any damages incurred based on the use of this information.


Region 1 Playoff Berth Probabilities (Back to top)
Projected Harbin cut-off 20.08 (actual 20.60)
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 100% (9W-24.7H-100%)
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 100% (9W-37.8H-100%)
North Royalton 100% (8W-23.0H-100%)
Solon 100% (9W-31.1H-100%)
Mayfield 100% (8W-28.2H-100%)
Parma 98% (6W-19.9H-92% 7W-21.7H-100%)
Boardman (Youngstown) 70% (7W-21.1H-99%)
Shaw (East Cleveland) 57% (7W-20.2H-99%)
Euclid 43% (6W-21.1H-100%) (earned playoff berth)
South (Willoughby) 18% (8W-19.3H-19%)
Warren G Harding (Warren) 12% (7W-19.1H-12%)
St Edward (Lakewood) 2% (5W-19.4H-18%)
Mentor 1% (6W-18.2H-1%)

Region 2 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.25 (actual 17.75)
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 100% (7W-25.6H-100%)
Hoover (North Canton) 100% (6W-21.2H-100%)
Whitmer (Toledo) 100% (8W-30.3H-100%)
Twinsburg 100% (8W-23.5H-100%)
Wadsworth 100% (8W-22.0H-100%)
Glenoak (Canton) 99% (7W-21.4H-99% 8W-24.2H-100%)
Brunswick 68% (6W-17.1H-9% 7W-20.1H-85%)
Steele (Amherst) 45% (7W-17.0H-2% 8W-21.0H-99%)
Hudson 33% (7W-16.9H-6% 8W-18.0H-33%)
Perrysburg 30% (7W-17.0H-1% 8W-22.0H-100%)
St John'S Jesuit (Toledo) 19% (7W-19.1H-54%)
Sylvania Southview (Sylvania) 3% (7W-17.7H-4%)
Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) 2% (6W-17.7H-13%) (earned playoff berth)
Elyria 1% (5W-17.0H-1%)
Findlay 1% (5W-16.7H-1%)

Region 3 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.27 (actual 16.95)
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 100% (9W-36.0H-100%)
Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) 100% (7W-32.5H-100%)
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 100% (8W-23.1H-100%)
Westerville South (Westerville) 99% (7W-19.9H-99% 8W-24.6H-100%)
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 99% (7W-19.6H-99% 8W-24.2H-100%)
Groveport-Madison (Groveport) 80% (6W-16.9H-8% 7W-19.3H-97%)
Lancaster 63% (5W-17.5H-31% 6W-18.1H-64%)
Hayes (Delaware) 51% (6W-15.6H-1% 7W-20.0H-99%)
Springfield 44% (6W-16.9H-5% 7W-21.0H-100%) (earned playoff berth)
Troy 36% (6W-18.0H-51%)
Pickerington North (Pickerington) 20% (7W-17.8H-25%)
(earned playoff berth)
Upper Arlington (Columbus) 7% (5W-15.8H-1% 6W-22.0H-100%)
Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) 1% (5W-15.6H-1%)
Northland (Columbus) 1% (7W-15.9H-1%)
Thomas Worthington (Worthington) 1% (6W-15.7H-1%)

Region 4 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 23.31 (actual 23.40)
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-34.3H-100%)
Elder (Cincinnati) 100% (6W-27.2H-100%)
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-32.0H-100%)
Anderson (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-28.2H-100%)
Lakota West (West Chester) 94% (8W-22.9H-46% 9W-25.3H-100%)
Wayne (Huber Heights) 77% (6W-22.9H-44% 7W-26.9H-100%)
Centerville 75% (7W-21.0H-1% 8W-23.9H-86%)
Colerain (Cincinnati) 71% (7W-21.2H-1% 8W-23.5H-81%)
Middletown 61% (8W-20.2H-1% 9W-23.6H-77%)
(earned playoff berth)
Northmont (Clayton) 15% (6W-22.6H-19%)
Lebanon 7% (8W-22.4H-7%)
Withrow (Cincinnati) 1% (8W-21.2H-1%)

 
Region 5 Playoff Berth Probabilities (Back to top)
Projected Harbin cut-off 19.33 (actual 20.95)
Highland (Medina) 100% (6W-22.5H-100%)
West Geauga (Chesterland) 100% (8W-22.4H-100%)
Lake Catholic (Mentor) 100% (8W-24.1H-100%)
Howland (Warren) 98% (8W-20.0H-95% 9W-23.5H-100%)
Ashland 98% (8W-20.2H-95% 9W-24.0H-100%)
Aurora 86% (7W-18.6H-51% 8W-22.3H-100%)
Ravenna 80% (7W-17.3H-1% 8W-20.8H-99%)
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 44% (5W-17.2H-2% 6W-20.5H-94%)
Canfield 35% (8W-18.2H-21% 9W-22.9H-100%)
(earned playoff berth)
Geneva 34% (7W-17.3H-4% 8W-18.7H-39%)
Cloverleaf (Lodi) 17% (5W-16.2H-1% 6W-20.1H-75%)
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 6% (7W-18.3H-21%)
Copley 1% (7W-17.3H-1%)
Revere (Richfield) 1% (7W-17.3H-1%)
Roosevelt (Kent) 1% (8W-16.8H-1%)

Region 6 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.56 (actual 19.25)
Rogers (Toledo) 100% (8W-20.7H-100%)
St Francis De Sales (Toledo) 100% (8W-24.9H-100%)
Rocky River 99% (7W-20.8H-99% 8W-23.2H-100%)
Maple Heights 99% (7W-20.3H-99% 8W-21.4H-100%)
Central Catholic (Toledo) 99% (7W-19.8H-99% 8W-23.9H-100%)
Maumee 83% (8W-17.2H-44% 9W-21.8H-100%)
Olmsted Falls 77% (6W-15.6H-5% 7W-19.8H-99%)
Avon Lake 64% (6W-15.8H-18% 7W-20.3H-99%)
North Ridgeville 39% (7W-15.3H-4% 8W-18.5H-54%)
(earned playoff berth)
Lexington 21% (6W-14.4H-1% 7W-19.0H-65%)
Normandy (Parma) 12% (6W-18.2H-38%)
Midview (Grafton) 4% (6W-15.7H-13%)

Region 7 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.93 (actual 19.25)
Brookhaven (Columbus) 100% (7W-22.5H-100%)
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 100% (8W-20.5H-100%)
Logan 100% (9W-29.4H-100%)
Louisville 100% (9W-29.8H-100%)
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 95% (7W-18.4H-54% 8W-19.7H-95%)
Canal Winchester 70% (7W-17.2H-5% 8W-19.2H-74%)
St Charles (Columbus) 59% (5W-17.4H-6% 6W-20.5H-99%)
Olentangy Orange (Lewis Center) 58% (7W-17.9H-16% 8W-21.8H-100%)
Walnut Ridge (Columbus) 56% (7W-16.7H-1% 8W-19.1H-73%)
(earned playoff berth)
New Philadelphia 40% (9W-17.6H-7% 10W-22.1H-100%)
New Albany 17% (7W-18.1H-21%)
Big Walnut (Sunbury) 5% (7W-18.5H-20%)
Warren (Vincent) 1% (8W-17.3H-1%)
Zanesville 1% (9W-16.5H-1%)

Region 8 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.21 (actual 16.35)
Turpin (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-25.7H-100%)
Winton Woods (Cincinnati) 100% (7W-25.6H-100%)
Tecumseh (New Carlisle) 100% (8W-23.6H-100%)
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 100% (6W-21.8H-100%)
West Carrollton 99% (8W-17.0H-99% 9W-20.8H-100%)
Wilmington 99% (7W-16.4H-99% 8W-21.8H-100%)
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 99% (6W-15.2H-98% 7W-17.9H-100%)
Ross (Hamilton) 87% (5W-14.0H-57% 6W-16.6H-99%)
Carroll (Dayton) 11% (6W-14.1H-18%)
Harrison 3% (5W-12.4H-1% 6W-18.0H-100%)
Greenville 1% (4W-12.5H-1%)

 
Region 9 Playoff Berth Probabilities (Back to top)
Projected Harbin cut-off 18.91 (actual 18.60)
Poland Seminary (Poland) 100% (8W-26.0H-100%)
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 100% (6W-21.0H-100%)
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 100% (9W-33.6H-100%)
Padua Franciscan (Parma) 99% (6W-19.9H-99% 7W-20.9H-99%)
Hubbard 99% (8W-19.8H-99% 9W-22.5H-100%)
Buckeye (Medina) 99% (7W-19.7H-99% 8W-22.4H-100%)
Archbishop Hoban (Akron) 99% (6W-19.6H-97% 7W-22.6H-100%)
Field (Mogadore) 59% (7W-18.2H-42% 8W-18.7H-59%)
Bay (Bay Village) 42% (8W-19.0H-67%)
Buchtel (Akron) 1% (7W-17.5H-1%)

Region 10 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 17.22 (actual 17.20)
Bishop Watterson (Columbus) 100% (7W-23.2H-100%)
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 100% (6W-21.6H-100%)
Napoleon 100% (8W-23.0H-100%)
Perkins (Sandusky) 100% (8W-19.5H-100%)
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 100% (7W-19.0H-100%)
Eastmoor Academy (Columbus) 99% (7W-17.2H-75% 8W-18.3H-100%)
Bryan 83% (7W-15.2H-2% 8W-17.3H-87%)
Bellefontaine 79% (8W-17.4H-71% 9W-22.1H-100%)
Graham (St Paris) 38% (8W-17.2H-44%)
Buckeye Valley (Delaware) 1% (8W-16.3H-1%)
Shawnee (Lima) 1% (7W-15.2H-1%)
Clyde 1% (6W-15.9H-1%)
Bellevue 1% (6W-15.2H-1%)

Region 11 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.26 (actual 16.95)
Northwest (Canal Fulton) 100% (6W-18.2H-100%)
Dover 100% (8W-22.9H-100%)
Granville 100% (8W-19.0H-100%)
Buckeye Local (Rayland) 100% (7W-21.2H-100%)
Steubenville 100% (8W-30.4H-100%)
Salem 98% (7W-16.5H-87% 8W-19.2H-100%)
Marlington (Alliance) 77% (7W-14.8H-15% 8W-16.8H-94%)
Harrison Central (Cadiz) 62% (7W-13.4H-1% 8W-16.9H-93%)
Indian Creek (Wintersville) 31% (5W-14.0H-4% 6W-15.9H-39%)
Sheridan (Thornville) 18% (8W-15.6H-23%)
Minerva 13% (7W-13.8H-1% 8W-19.0H-100%)
Carrollton 1% (7W-13.6H-1%)

Region 12 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.61 (actual 16.95)
Logan Elm (Circleville) 100% (7W-18.4H-100%)
Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) 100% (8W-20.9H-100%)
Wyoming (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-18.3H-100%)
Monroe 97% (7W-16.4H-52% 8W-17.3H-98%)
Eaton 92% (7W-15.6H-5% 8W-17.1H-93%)
Goshen 76% (7W-16.5H-61% 8W-21.4H-100%)
Shawnee (Springfield) 58% (6W-16.0H-24% 7W-16.6H-59%)
New Richmond 56% (8W-15.3H-2% 9W-17.6H-99%)
Washington (Washington Court House) 55% (6W-15.9H-11% 7W-18.4H-100%)
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 22% (6W-16.5H-46%)
Jackson 21% (8W-17.5H-98%)
Franklin 21% (7W-16.1H-24%)
Indian Hill (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-16.0H-4%)
Hillsboro 1% (8W-15.1H-1%)

 
Region 13 Playoff Berth
Probabilities (Back to top)
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.00 (actual 12.35)
Chagrin Falls 100% (9W-26.5H-100%)
Lakeview (Cortland) 100% (6W-17.3H-100%)
Manchester (Akron) 100% (8W-18.1H-100%)
Girard 100% (9W-22.8H-100%)
Woodridge (Peninsula) 100% (7W-15.4H-100%)
Martins Ferry 100% (7W-20.8H-100%)
Cuyahoga Valley Christian (Cuyahoga Falls) 97% (7W-13.7H-97% 8W-17.9H-100%)
St Clairsville 32% (6W-10.1H-1% 7W-14.0H-95%)
Union Local (Belmont) 31% (6W-12.7H-44%)
Memorial (Campbell) 22% (6W-10.7H-2% 7W-12.2H-27%)
(earned playoff berth)
Perry 12% (6W-11.0H-2% 7W-16.1H-100%)
Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) 5% (7W-12.5H-33%)
Garfield (Garrettsville) 1% (7W-10.7H-1%)
Liberty (Youngstown) 1% (5W-11.6H-4%)
Sandy Valley (Magnolia) 1% (6W-10.7H-1%)
Fairview (Fairview Park) 1% (5W-10.3H-1%)

Region 14 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 14.82 (actual 15.15)
Orrville 100% (6W-17.5H-100%)
Triway (Wooster) 100% (7W-19.6H-100%)
Clear Fork (Bellville) 100% (6W-16.3H-100%)
Galion 100% (9W-20.7H-100%)
Genoa Area (Genoa) 100% (9W-19.4H-100%)
Ottawa-Glandorf (Ottawa) 100% (7W-17.3H-100%)
Edison (Milan) 99% (8W-15.8H-99% 9W-18.5H-100%)
Eastwood (Pemberville) 57% (7W-13.1H-1% 8W-14.7H-63%)

Black River (Sullivan) 29% (6W-14.5H-36%)
Clearview (Lorain) 14% (8W-14.2H-18%)

Bucyrus 1% (8W-13.6H-1%)
Elyria Catholic (Elyria) 1% (7W-13.2H-1%)

Region 15 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 15.08 (actual 15.25)
Coshocton 100% (7W-16.4H-100%)
Amanda-Clearcreek (Amanda) 100% (9W-27.7H-100%)
Ironton 100% (7W-21.1H-100%)
West Muskingum (Zanesville) 100% (8W-16.6H-100%)
Heath 100% (7W-18.4H-100%)
Highland (Sparta) 95% (7W-14.5H-47% 8W-15.7H-97%)
Zane Trace (Chillicothe) 89% (7W-14.0H-14% 8W-16.0H-99%)
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 39% (7W-13.3H-1% 8W-16.6H-99%)
Alexander (Albany) 34% (7W-13.1H-1% 8W-14.8H-45%)
(earned playoff berth)
Fairland (Proctorville) 21% (7W-15.4H-70%)
Portsmouth 17% (7W-14.3H-19%)
Portsmouth West (West Portsmouth) 5% (7W-14.9H-30%)
Westfall (Williamsport) 1% (7W-12.9H-1%)

Region 16 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.63 (actual 16.68)
Kenton 100% (8W-20.5H-100%)
Valley View (Germantown) 100% (6W-18.8H-100%)
North College Hill (Cincinnati) 100% (9W-23.0H-100%)
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 100% (9W-26.1H-100%)
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 100% (9W-22.9H-100%)
Carlisle 96% (7W-16.0H-48% 8W-18.5H-100%)
Waynesville 91% (7W-15.3H-8% 8W-17.0H-94%)
Milton-Union (West Milton) 52% (6W-15.6H-19% 7W-16.6H-62%)
Jonathan Alder (Plain City) 44% (6W-14.8H-1% 7W-18.0H-99%)
(earned playoff berth)
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 18% (7W-15.9H-18%)

 
Region 17 Playoff Berth
Probabilities (Back to top)
Projected Harbin cut-off 14.13 (actual 13.55)
Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) 100% (9W-20.5H-100%)
Crestview (Columbiana) 100% (8W-17.6H-100%)
East Palestine 100% (7W-15.2H-100%)
Trinity (Garfield Heights) 100% (7W-15.1H-100%)
Independence 100% (9W-16.5H-100%)
Ursuline (Youngstown) 99% (5W-14.1H-96% 6W-18.1H-100%)
Hawken (Gates Mills) 86% (7W-12.4H-14% 8W-15.5H-100%)
Waynedale (Apple Creek) 85% (7W-13.2H-53% 8W-15.3H-100%)

Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 13% (5W-13.3H-25%)
Mineral Ridge 9% (6W-13.1H-20%)

Springfield (New Middletown) 7% (6W-13.4H-25%)
Norwayne (Creston) 1% (6W-12.3H-2%)
East Canton 1% (6W-12.2H-1%)
Northwestern (West Salem) 1% (5W-11.6H-1%)

Region 18 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.19 (actual 13.30)
Crestview (Ashland) 100% (9W-16.3H-100%)
Tinora (Defiance) 100% (8W-17.4H-100%)
Patrick Henry (Hamler) 100% (9W-23.0H-100%)
Hicksville 100% (9W-14.4H-100%)
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 100% (7W-15.2H-100%)
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 100% (8W-17.0H-100%)
Fairview (Sherwood) 99% (6W-13.3H-99% 7W-14.0H-100%)
Northwood 92% (6W-12.5H-66% 7W-13.2H-92%)
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 5% (7W-12.9H-23%)
Loudonville 3% (7W-12.9H-24%)
Oberlin 1% (7W-11.9H-1%)

Region 19 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 17.46 (actual 17.50)
Oak Hill 100% (10W-20.5H-100%)
Monroe Central (Woodsfield) 100% (8W-19.4H-100%)
Fredericktown 99% (9W-18.0H-97% 10W-20.9H-100%)
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 97% (9W-16.8H-54% 10W-19.0H-99%)
Minford 91% (7W-17.1H-70% 8W-20.6H-100%)
Wheelersburg 87% (7W-16.3H-26% 8W-19.5H-100%)
Dawson-Bryant (Coal Grove) 78% (8W-16.3H-28% 9W-19.4H-100%)
Caldwell 54% (8W-17.8H-81%)
Liberty Union (Baltimore) 51% (8W-16.3H-8% 9W-19.9H-100%)
Nelsonville-York (Nelsonville) 43% (7W-16.0H-11% 8W-16.9H-43%)

Region 20 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 16.51 (actual 17.05)
Coldwater 100% (8W-19.3H-100%)
North Union (Richwood) 100% (9W-19.1H-100%)
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 100% (9W-19.3H-100%)
Anna 99% (8W-17.4H-99% 9W-19.6H-100%)
Bishop Ready (Columbus) 92% (7W-16.6H-78% 8W-21.2H-100%)
St Henry 83% (6W-16.0H-39% 7W-16.7H-84%)
West Jefferson 74% (8W-16.1H-45% 9W-19.8H-100%)
Columbus Academy (Gahanna) 60% (7W-15.0H-9% 8W-16.5H-63%)
Badin (Hamilton) 50% (6W-14.4H-1% 7W-17.3H-97%) (earned playoff berth)

Miami East (Casstown) 40% (9W-18.0H-100%)
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 1% (7W-15.4H-1%)


Region 21 Playoff Berth
Probabilities (Back to top)
Projected Harbin cut-off 13.62 (actual 14.30)
Wynford (Bucyrus) 100% (9W-18.1H-100%)
Dalton 100% (8W-16.5H-100%)
Mc Donald 100% (9W-17.5H-100%)
Mogadore 100% (8W-16.1H-100%)
St Paul (Norwalk) 100% (9W-16.6H-100%)
John F Kennedy (Warren) 99% (7W-15.8H-99% 8W-20.7H-100%)
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 90% (8W-12.4H-64% 9W-14.6H-99%)
Hopewell-Loudon (Bascom) 89% (7W-12.4H-42% 8W-14.3H-98%)

Calvert (Tiffin) 18% (6W-12.3H-25%)
Monroeville 4% (7W-11.2H-1% 8W-15.0H-100%)

St Peter Chanel (Bedford) 1% (5W-12.9H-36%)

Region 22 Playoff Berth Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 12.09 (actual 11.80)
St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) 100% (8W-13.4H-100%)
Ada 100% (9W-17.5H-100%)
Carey 100% (9W-18.2H-100%)
St John'S (Delphos) 100% (9W-23.3H-100%)
Leipsic 100% (8W-15.2H-100%)
Columbus Grove 92% (6W-12.0H-63% 7W-14.0H-100%)
Arlington 75% (6W-11.4H-6% 7W-12.1H-75%)
Cory-Rawson (Rawson) 56% (6W-11.0H-1% 7W-12.1H-61%)
Mc Comb 41% (7W-12.0H-69%)
Pandora-Gilboa (Pandora) 36% (7W-12.4H-90%)

Region 23 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 10.49 (actual 10.85)
Columbiana 100% (7W-13.0H-100%)
Malvern 100% (8W-14.2H-100%)
Bridgeport 99% (8W-11.5H-99% 9W-12.2H-100%)
Tuscarawas Central Catholic (New Philadelphia) 99% (6W-11.5H-99% 7W-11.9H-100%)
Grove City Christian (Grove City) 92% (8W-10.6H-86% 9W-11.0H-92%)
Symmes Valley (Willow Wood) 88% (7W-9.6H-13% 8W-11.0H-95%)
Bishop Rosecrans (Zanesville) 77% (7W-10.2H-48% 8W-12.9H-100%)

Frontier (New Matamoras) 58% (6W-9.7H-14% 7W-10.9H-82%)
Shadyside 42% (5W-11.2H-94%) (earned playoff berth)
Newark Catholic (Newark) 38% (6W-9.8H-23% 7W-14.1H-100%)
Eastern (Reedsville) 6% (6W-9.8H-11%)
Trimble (Glouster) 1% (6W-9.1H-1%)

Region 24 Playoff Berth
Probabilities
Projected Harbin cut-off 11.41 (actual 11.35)
Ansonia 100% (9W-15.8H-100%)
Fort Loramie 100% (8W-13.8H-100%)
Lockland 100% (8W-18.2H-100%)
Southeastern Local (South Charleston) 99% (7W-12.5H-99% 8W-14.1H-100%)
Waynesfield-Goshen (Waynesfield) 99% (8W-12.0H-99% 9W-14.9H-100%)
Lehman Catholic (Sidney) 99% (6W-12.1H-99% 7W-15.4H-100%)
Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) 95% (7W-11.8H-94% 8W-15.0H-100%)
Covington 73% (7W-11.4H-84%)
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 29% (4W-10.9H-16% 5W-14.3H-100%) (earned playoff berth)
New Bremen 3% (6W-11.7H-96%)
Catholic Central (Springfield) 1% (6W-9.8H-1%)
Mississinawa Valley (Union City) 1% (6W-9.2H-1%)