Ohio Playoff Brackets
(posted Nov. 5, 2013 - end of regular season)

During the regular season, these projections are based on the aggregate results of at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, computing the Harbin points each time.  For each team, a projected record is determined (based on the median number of wins across the simulations), followed by a projected Harbin point total (from the median number of Harbin points earned in finishing with the projected number of wins).

First round picks : 89-23 (79.5%)
Second Round 36-13 (73.5%), with 7 projected winners previously eliminated
Regional finals 18-5 (78.3%), with 5 projected winners previously eliminated
State semifinals: 7-3 (70.0%), with 4 projected winners previously eliminated
State finals: 3-1 (75.0%) with 3 projected winners previously eliminated

First Round
R1: (1) St Edward (Lakewood) (8-1) by 31 vs (16) Shaker Heights (6-4)
R1: (8) Wadsworth (9-1) by 3 vs (9) Cleveland Heights (9-1)
R1: (4) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) (10-0) by 24 vs (13) Marysville (7-3)
R1: (5) Westerville Central (Westerville) (9-1) by 9 vs (12) Solon (6-4)
R1: (2) Mentor (9-1) by 23 vs (15) Brunswick (6-4)
R1: (7) Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow) (9-1) by 12 vs (10) Elyria (7-3)
R1: (3) Hudson (9-1) by 9 vs (14) Whitmer (Toledo) (6-4)
R1: (11) St Ignatius (Cleveland) (6-4) by 22 at (6) Canton Mc Kinley (Canton) (9-1)
R2: (1) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) (10-0) by 29 vs (16) Miamisburg (7-3)
R2: (8) Pickerington North (Pickerington) (9-1) by 5 vs (9) Fairfield (9-1)
R2: (4) Centerville (8-2) by 12 vs (13) Dublin Coffman (Dublin) (7-3)
R2: (5) Wayne (Huber Heights) (9-1) by 10 vs (12) Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) (8-2)
R2: (2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) (9-1) by 9 vs (15) St Xavier (Cincinnati) (5-5)
R2: (7) Elder (Cincinnati) (8-2) by 7 vs (10) Northmont (Clayton) (8-2)
R2: (3) Lakota West (West Chester) (9-1) by 9 vs (14) Pickerington Central (Pickerington) (7-2)
R2: (6) Colerain (Cincinnati) (10-0) by 21 vs (11) Springboro (9-1)

R3: (1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) (9-1) by 20 vs (8) Brush (Lyndhurst) (7-3)
R3: (5) Bedford (9-1) by 3 at (4) Roosevelt (Kent) (9-1)
R3: (2) Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) (9-1) by 19 vs (7) Riverside (Painesville) (7-3)
R3: (3) South (Willoughby) (8-2) by 2 vs (6) Madison (8-2)
R4: (1) Highland (Medina) (10-0) by 17 vs (8) Avon Lake (8-2)
R4: (4) Massillon Washington (Massillon) (8-2) by 8 vs (5) Nordonia (Macedonia) (8-2)
R4: (7) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) (8-2) by 2 at (2) Avon (10-0)
R4: (3) Ellet (Akron) (10-0) by 4 vs (6) Perrysburg (8-2)
R5: (1) New Albany (9-1) by 27 vs (8) Northland (Columbus) (7-2)
R5: (4) Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) (10-0) by 19 vs (5) Licking Heights (Pataskala) (9-1)
R5: (2) Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus) (9-1) by 7 vs (7) Dublin Scioto (Dublin) (6-4)
R5: (3) Zanesville (10-0) by 9 vs (6) St Charles (Columbus) (8-2)
R6: (1) Loveland (10-0) by 28 vs (8) Butler (Vandalia) (6-4)
R6: (4) Northwest (Cincinnati) (8-2) by 2 vs (5) Harrison (7-3)
R6: (2) Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) (9-1) by 7 vs (7) Withrow (Cincinnati) (8-2)
R6: (3) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) (8-2) by 18 vs (6) Kings (Kings Mills) (7-3)

R7: (1) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) (10-0) by 27 vs (8) Kenston (Chagrin Falls) (7-3)
R7: (5) Poland Seminary (Poland) (9-1) by 5 at (4) West Geauga (Chesterland) (7-3)
R7: (2) Hubbard (10-0) by 14 vs (7) Marlington (Alliance) (8-2)
R7: (6) Aurora (9-1) by 2 at (3) Louisville (10-0)
R8: (1) Central Catholic (Toledo) (10-0) by 32 vs (8) Defiance (6-4)
R8: (4) Columbian (Tiffin) (9-1) by 8 vs (5) Norwalk (9-1)
R8: (2) Clyde (9-1) by 34 vs (7) Buckeye (Medina) (6-4)
R8: (3) Perkins (Sandusky) (10-0) by 26 vs (6) Napoleon (6-4)
R9: (1) Athens (The Plains) (10-0) by 10 vs (8) Logan Elm (Circleville) (7-3)
R9: (4) Tri-Valley (Dresden) (8-2) by 2 vs (5) New Philadelphia (9-1)
R9: (2) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) (9-1) by 9 vs (7) Dover (7-3)
R9: (6) Chillicothe (9-1) by 4 at (3) Brookhaven (Columbus) (8-2)
R10: (1) Tippecanoe (Tipp City) (10-0) by 23 vs (8) Kenton Ridge (Springfield) (7-3)
R10: (5) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) (6-3) by 17 at (4) Western Brown (Mount Orab) (10-0)
R10: (7) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) (7-2$) by 10 at (2) Franklin (9-1)
R10: (3) Wapakoneta (9-1) by 15 vs (6) Shawnee (Springfield) (9-1)

R11: (1) Chagrin Falls (8-2) by 17 vs (8) Cleveland Central Catholic (Cleveland) (8-2)
R11: (5) Benedictine (Cleveland) (7-3) by 3 at (4) Woodridge (Peninsula) (8-2)
R11: (2) Struthers (8-2) by 15 vs (7) Lakeview (Cortland) (7-3)
R11: (3) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) (6-4) by 28 vs (6) John Hay (Cleveland) (8-2)
R12: (1) River Valley (Caledonia) (10-0) by 15 vs (8) Lake (Millbury) (8-2)
R12: (4) Genoa Area (Genoa) (10-0) by 5 vs (5) Bryan (10-0)
R12: (2) Kenton (10-0) by 26 vs (7) Galion (9-1)
R12: (6) Wauseon (9-1) by 4 at (3) Triway (Wooster) (8-2)
R13: (1) Licking Valley (Newark) (8-2) by 3 vs (8) Steubenville (6-4)
R13: (4) Maysville (Zanesville) (7-3) by 6 vs (5) Bexley (Columbus) (7-3)
R13: (2) Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten) (8-2) by 11 vs (7) Bloom-Carroll (Carroll) (6-4)
R13: (3) Philo (Duncan Falls) (8-2) by 8 vs (6) John Glenn (New Concord) (7-3)
R14: (1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) (9-1) by 15 vs (8) Wyoming (Cincinnati) (8-2)
R14: (4) Valley View (Germantown) (9-1) by 8 vs (5) Circleville (8-2)
R14: (2) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) (9-1) by 13 vs (7) Miami Trace (Washington Court House) (7-3)
R14: (3) Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) (8-2) by 3 vs (6) Urbana (10-0)

R15: (8) Ursuline (Youngstown) (4-5) by 11 at (1) Manchester (Akron) (8-2)
R15: (5) Fairless (Navarre) (7-3) by 4 at (4) Black River (Sullivan) (7-3)
R15: (2) Crestview (Columbiana) (9-1) by 9 vs (7) Liberty (Youngstown) (7-3)
R15: (3) Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills) (8-2) by 1 vs (6) Beachwood (6-4)
R16: (1) Columbia (Columbia Station) (10-0) by 9 vs (8) Chippewa (Doylestown) (8-2)
R16: (5) Coldwater (8-2) by 8 at (4) Eastwood (Pemberville) (8-2)
R16: (2) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) (9-0) by 11 vs (7) Huron (7-3)
R16: (3) Northwestern (West Salem) (9-1) by 4 vs (6) Loudonville (9-1)
R17: (1) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) (9-1) by 42 vs (8) Zane Trace (Chillicothe) (5-5)
R17: (4) St Clairsville (9-1) by 2 vs (5) Liberty Union (Baltimore) (8-2)
R17: (2) Martins Ferry (9-1) by 24 vs (7) Westfall (Williamsport) (5-5)
R17: (3) Wheelersburg (9-1) by 20 vs (6) Fairland (Proctorville) (7-3)
R18: (1) West Jefferson (9-1) by 10 vs (8) Waynesville (8-2)
R18: (4) North Union (Richwood) (9-1) by 11 vs (5) Chaminade-Julienne (Dayton) (6-4)
R18: (2) Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) (10-0) by 14 vs (7) Madeira (Cincinnati) (8-2)
R18: (3) Badin (Hamilton) (8-2) by 18 vs (6) Mariemont (Cincinnati) (7-3)

R19: (1) Kirtland (10-0) by 28 vs (8) Mc Donald (7-3)
R19: (4) Brookfield (8-2) by 1 vs (5) St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) (8-2)
R19: (2) South Range (North Lima) (10-0) by 12 vs (7) Cuyahoga Heights (Cleveland) (6-4)
R19: (3) Mogadore (9-1) by 5 vs (6) Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) (9-1)
R20: (1) Tinora (Defiance) (9-1) by 21 vs (8) Northwood (8-2)
R20: (5) Wayne Trace (Haviland) (9-1) by 7 at (4) Colonel Crawford (North Robinson) (9-1)
R20: (2) Jefferson (Delphos) (9-1) by 10 vs (7) Ada (7-3)
R20: (3) Lima Central Catholic (Lima) (8-2) by 7 vs (6) Crestview (Convoy) (8-2)
R21: (1) Valley (Lucasville) (10-0) by 28 vs (8) Fort Frye (Beverly) (8-2)
R21: (4) Newark Catholic (Newark) (9-1) by 19 vs (5) Bellaire (7-3)
R21: (2) Bishop Ready (Columbus) (9-1) by 31 vs (7) Oak Hill (8-2)
R21: (3) Centerburg (10-0) by 8 vs (6) Monroe Central (Woodsfield) (7-3)
R22: (1) Miami East (Casstown) (9-1) by 7 vs (8) Tri-County North (Lewisburg) (7-3)
R22: (4) Mechanicsburg (8-2) by 14 vs (5) National Trail (New Paris) (8-2)
R22: (2) Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati) (10-0) by 5 vs (7) Summit Country Day (Cincinnati) (8-2)
R22: (6) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) (8-2) by 14 at (3) Williamsburg (7-3)

R23: (1) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) (10-0) by 27 vs (8) Trinity (Garfield Heights) (4-6)
R23: (4) Danville (8-2) by 23 vs (5) Lowellville (6-4)
R23: (2) St Paul (Norwalk) (9-1) by 35 vs (7) Chalker (Southington) (5-5)
R23: (3) Wellsville (8-2) by 9 vs (6) Mapleton (Ashland) (6-4)
R24: (8) Delphos St John's (6-4) by 4 at (1) Leipsic (8-2)
R24: (4) Calvert (Tiffin) (6-4) by 11 vs (5) Edon (8-2)
R24: (2) Mc Comb (8-2) by 12 vs (7) Hicksville (6-4)
R24: (6) Arlington (7-3) by 10 at (3) St Joseph Central Catholic (Fremont) (7-3)
R25: (1) Trimble (Glouster) (10-0) by 27 vs (8) Beallsville (6-4)
R25: (4) Catholic Central (Steubenville) (8-2) by 23 vs (5) Southern (Racine) (8-2)
R25: (2) Shadyside (10-0) by 31 vs (7) Fairfield Christian Academy (Lancaster) (7-3)
R25: (3) Malvern (8-2) by 8 vs (6) Caldwell (8-2)
R26: (1) Triad (North Lewisburg) (10-0) by 19 vs (8) Cedarville (7-3)
R26: (4) Lehman Catholic (Sidney) (9-1) by 16 vs (5) Paint Valley (Bainbridge) (8-2)
R26: (2) Covington (10-0) by 28 vs (7) Notre Dame (Portsmouth) (8-2)
R26: (3) Marion Local (Maria Stein) (10-0) by 30 vs (6) Fort Loramie (8-2)

Second Round
R1: (1) St Edward (Lakewood) by 20 vs (8) Wadsworth
R1: (4) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) by 7 vs (5) Westerville Central (Westerville)
R1: (2) Mentor by 18 vs (7) Stow-Munroe Falls (Stow)
R1: (11) St Ignatius (Cleveland) by 13 vs (3) Hudson
R2: (1) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) by 10 vs (8) Pickerington North (Pickerington)
R2: (5) Wayne (Huber Heights) by 6 vs (4) Centerville
R2: (2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) by 9 vs (7) Elder (Cincinnati)
R2: (6) Colerain (Cincinnati) by 12 vs (3) Lakota West (West Chester)

R3: (1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) by 13 vs (5) Bedford
R3: (2) Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights) by 9 vs (3) South (Willoughby)
R4: (4) Massillon Washington (Massillon) by 2 vs (1) Highland (Medina)
R4: (7) St Francis De Sales (Toledo) by 7 vs (3) Ellet (Akron)
R5: (4) Mansfield Senior (Mansfield) by 1 vs (1) New Albany
R5: (3) Zanesville by 6 vs (2) Worthington Kilbourne (Columbus)
R6: (1) Loveland by 25 vs (4) Northwest (Cincinnati)
R6: (3) Winton Woods (Cincinnati) by 13 vs (2) Mount Healthy (Cincinnati)

R7: (1) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) by 21 vs (5) Poland Seminary (Poland)
R7: (2) Hubbard by 3 vs (6) Aurora
R8: (1) Central Catholic (Toledo) by 20 vs (4) Columbian (Tiffin)
R8: (3) Perkins (Sandusky) by 7 vs (2) Clyde
R9: (4) Tri-Valley (Dresden) by 6 vs (1) Athens (The Plains)
R9: (2) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) by 12 vs (6) Chillicothe
R10: (5) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) by 2 vs (1) Tippecanoe (Tipp City)
R10: (7) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) by 5 vs (3) Wapakoneta

R11: (1) Chagrin Falls by 8 vs (5) Benedictine (Cleveland)
R11: (3) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) by 12 vs (2) Struthers
R12: (4) Genoa Area (Genoa) by 6 vs (1) River Valley (Caledonia)
R12: (2) Kenton by 20 vs (6) Wauseon
R13: (1) Licking Valley (Newark) by 16 vs (4) Maysville (Zanesville)
R13: (3) Philo (Duncan Falls) by 4 vs (2) Indian Valley (Gnadenhutten)
R14: (1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) by 5 vs (4) Valley View (Germantown)
R14: (2) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) by 8 vs (3) Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati)

R15: (8) Ursuline (Youngstown) by 21 vs (5) Fairless (Navarre)
R15: (2) Crestview (Columbiana) by 9 vs (3) Gilmour Academy (Gates Mills)
R16: (5) Coldwater by 20 vs (1) Columbia (Columbia Station)
R16: (2) Liberty-Benton (Findlay) by 8 vs (3) Northwestern (West Salem)
R17: (1) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) by 24 vs (4) St Clairsville
R17: (3) Wheelersburg by 11 vs (2) Martins Ferry
R18: (4) North Union (Richwood) by 1 vs (1) West Jefferson
R18: (3) Badin (Hamilton) by 1 vs (2) Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati)

R19: (1) Kirtland by 16 vs (4) Brookfield
R19: (2) South Range (North Lima) by 5 vs (3) Mogadore
R20: (1) Tinora (Defiance) by 4 vs (5) Wayne Trace (Haviland)
R20: (2) Jefferson (Delphos) by 1 vs (3) Lima Central Catholic (Lima)
R21: (4) Newark Catholic (Newark) by 5 vs (1) Valley (Lucasville)
R21: (2) Bishop Ready (Columbus) by 20 vs (3) Centerburg
R22: (4) Mechanicsburg by 2 vs (1) Miami East (Casstown)
R22: (6) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) by 3 vs (2) Cincinnati Country Day (Cincinnati)

R23: (1) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) by 6 vs (4) Danville
R23: (2) St Paul (Norwalk) by 15 vs (3) Wellsville
R24: (8) Delphos St John's by 11 vs (4) Calvert (Tiffin)
R24: (2) Mc Comb by 2 vs (6) Arlington
R25: (4) Catholic Central (Steubenville) by 1 vs (1) Trimble (Glouster)
R25: (2) Shadyside by 14 vs (3) Malvern
R26: (1) Triad (North Lewisburg) by 10 vs (4) Lehman Catholic (Sidney)
R26: (3) Marion Local (Maria Stein) by 18 vs (2) Covington

Third Round
R1: (1) St Edward (Lakewood) by 8 vs (4) Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown)
R1: (11) St Ignatius (Cleveland) by 5 vs (2) Mentor
R2: (1) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard) by 6 vs (5) Wayne (Huber Heights)
R2: (6) Colerain (Cincinnati) by 3 vs (2) Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati)

R3: (1) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) by 5 vs (2) Brecksville-Broadview Heights (Broadview Heights)
R4: (4) Massillon Washington (Massillon) by 6 vs (7) St Francis De Sales (Toledo)
R5: (3) Zanesville by 3 vs (4) Mansfield Senior (Mansfield)
R6: (1) Loveland by 3 vs (3) Winton Woods (Cincinnati)

R7: (1) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) by 17 vs (2) Hubbard
R8: (1) Central Catholic (Toledo) by 13 vs (3) Perkins (Sandusky)
R9: (2) Marion-Franklin (Columbus) by 5 vs (4) Tri-Valley (Dresden)
R10: (7) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) by 3 vs (5) Thurgood Marshall (Dayton)

R11: (3) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) by 8 vs (1) Chagrin Falls
R12: (2) Kenton by 10 vs (4) Genoa Area (Genoa)
R13: (1) Licking Valley (Newark) by 4 vs (3) Philo (Duncan Falls)
R14: (1) Archbishop Alter (Kettering) by 1 vs (2) Clinton-Massie (Clarksville)

R15: (8) Ursuline (Youngstown) by 13 vs (2) Crestview (Columbiana)
R16: (5) Coldwater by 5 vs (2) Liberty-Benton (Findlay)
R17: (1) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) by 18 vs (3) Wheelersburg
R18: (4) North Union (Richwood) by 7 vs (3) Badin (Hamilton)

R19: (1) Kirtland by 10 vs (2) South Range (North Lima)
R20: (2) Jefferson (Delphos) by 1 vs (1) Tinora (Defiance)
R21: (2) Bishop Ready (Columbus) by 4 vs (4) Newark Catholic (Newark)
R22: (4) Mechanicsburg by 4 vs (6) West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty)

R23: (1) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) by 3 vs (2) St Paul (Norwalk)
R24: (8) Delphos St John's by 1 vs (2) Mc Comb
R25: (2) Shadyside by 3 vs (4) Catholic Central (Steubenville)
R26: (3) Marion Local (Maria Stein) by 22 vs (1) Triad (North Lewisburg)

State Semifinals
R1: (11) St Ignatius (Cleveland) by 1 vs (1) St Edward (Lakewood)
R2: (6) Colerain (Cincinnati) by 4 vs (1) Hilliard Davidson (Hilliard)

(R4) Massillon Washington (Massillon) by 3 vs (R3) Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland)
(R6) Loveland by 3 vs (R5) Zanesville

(R7) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) by 1 vs (R8) Central Catholic (Toledo)
(R10) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) by 1 vs (R9) Marion-Franklin (Columbus)

(R11) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) by 16 vs (R13) Licking Valley (Newark)
(R12) Kenton by 13 vs (R14) Archbishop Alter (Kettering)

(R17) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) by 13 vs (R15) Ursuline (Youngstown)
(R16) Coldwater by 11 vs (R18) North Union (Richwood)

(R21) Bishop Ready (Columbus) by 4 vs (R19) Kirtland
(R20) Jefferson (Delphos) by 11 vs (R22) Mechanicsburg

(R23) Western Reserve (Berlin Center) by 1 vs (R25) Shadyside
(R26) Marion Local (Maria Stein) by 26 vs (R24) Delphos St John's

State Finals
D1: (R11) St Ignatius (Cleveland) by 3 vs (R6) Colerain (Cincinnati)
D2: (R6) Loveland by 2 vs (R4) Massillon Washington (Massillon)
D3: (R7) St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) by 17 vs (R10) Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood)
D4: (R12) Kenton by 5 vs (R11) Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown)
D5: (R17) Bishop Hartley (Columbus) by 7 vs (R16) Coldwater
D6: (R21) Bishop Ready (Columbus) by 12 vs (R20) Jefferson (Delphos)
D7: (R26) Marion Local (Maria Stein) by 23 vs (R23) Western Reserve (Berlin Center)