Ohio State Championship Odds
(end of regular season)

These probabilities are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  Only teams with at least a 0.2% (1-in-500) chance of winning a state title are listed.

In 2013, five of the state champions werewere  listed first or second in their division entering the playoffs.  The others were Cincinnati Moeller (sixth in D-I, at 6.4%) and Clinton-Massie (4th in D-IV, at 5.4%).

In 2012, two of the state champions were at the top of their divisional listings after the regular season - Toledo Central Catholic in D-II and Coldwater in D-V.  Marion Local was 4th in D-VI at 11.6%, Clinton-Massie 4th in D-IV at 10.3%, Akron SVSM was 7th in D-III at 6.2%, and the longshot was Archbishop Moeller, 11th in D-I at 0.4%.

In 2011, three of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (Trotwood-Madison first at 42%, Kirtland second at 17%, and Marion Local second at 22%).  For the second year in a row, a true underdog won Division IV; this year it was Norwayne, which entered the playoffs at 1.0% (and 11th on the D-IV list).

In 2010, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (St. Edward 1st at 36%, Maple Heights 2nd at 10%, Bishop Watterson 2nd at 22%, Ursuline 1st at 80%, and Delphos St. John's 1st at 72%).  However, in Division IV, Bishop Hartley was quite a long-shot listed 17th (of 32 teams) most likely to win that title, at 0.8%.

Also in 2009, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division (Winton Woods - tied for 2nd at 14%, Cardinal Mooney 1st at 45%, Archbishop Alter 1st at 55%, Ursuline 1st at 33%, and Norwalk St. Paul 2nd at 14%).  The one surprise was D-I champ Hilliard Davidson, listed 9th at 4%.

Division 1 State Championship Probabilities
St Edward (Lakewood) 29.1%
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 23.5%
Hudson 20.9%
Mentor 8.4%
Centerville 4.2%
Wayne (Huber Heights) 2.8%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 2.4%
Springboro 1.6%
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 1.3%
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 1.1%
Elder (Cincinnati) 0.9%
Colerain (Cincinnati) 0.8%
Austintown-Fitch (Youngstown) 0.7%
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 0.7%
Brunswick 0.7%
Pickerington Central (Pickerington) 0.5%

Division 2 State Championship Probabilities
La Salle (Cincinnati) 52.0%
Bedford 12.3%
Nordonia (Macedonia) 10.8%
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 8.2%
Mayfield 4.4%
Perrysburg 3.3%
Midview (Grafton) 2.8%
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 2.6%
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 0.9%
Highland (Medina) 0.6%
Kings (Kings Mills) 0.6%
Avon 0.4%
Madison 0.2%
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 0.2%

Division 3 State Championship Probabilities
Central Catholic (Toledo) 36.4%
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 15.5%
Hubbard 12.7%
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 12.0%
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 9.4%
Wapakoneta 4.7%
Jackson 2.6%
Athens (The Plains) 1.9%
Kenston (Chagrin Falls) 0.9%
Norwalk 0.8%
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 0.7%
Clyde 0.6%
Aurora 0.5%
Dover 0.5%
Louisville 0.3%
Poland Seminary (Poland) 0.3%

Division 4 State Championship Probabilities
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 41.4%
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 25.5%
Benedictine (Cleveland) 17.6%
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 4.9%
Kenton 2.1%
Triway (Wooster) 1.8%
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 1.8%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 1.7%
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 0.7%
Beechcroft (Columbus) 0.7%
Wauseon 0.6%
Steubenville 0.5%
Bellevue 0.3%

Division 5 State Championship Probabilities
Coldwater 30.2%
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 28.5%
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 14.0%
Ursuline (Youngstown) 11.6%
Huron 4.2%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 3.7%
Pleasant (Marion) 2.3%
Wheelersburg 2.1%
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 1.2%
Badin (Hamilton) 1.0%
St Clairsville 0.4%
Eastwood (Pemberville) 0.2%

Division 6 State Championship Probabilities
Kirtland 26.8%
Loudonville 15.7%
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 9.9%
Tinora (Defiance) 9.9%
Mogadore 8.7%
Minster 7.7%
Fredericktown 3.7%
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 3.6%
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 2.6%
Versailles 1.9%
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 1.7%
Wynford (Bucyrus) 1.2%
Mc Donald 0.9%
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 0.9%
Valley (Lucasville) 0.9%
Jefferson (Delphos) 0.7%
Spencerville 0.6%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 0.5%
Centerburg 0.4%
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 0.4%
Mechanicsburg 0.3%
Van Buren 0.2%
Grandview Heights (Columbus) 0.2%
Miami East (Casstown) 0.2%

Division 7 State Championship Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 95.3%
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 1.1%
Arlington 1.1%
Shadyside 0.8%
St Paul (Norwalk) 0.7%
Trimble (Glouster) 0.6%


State Championship Odds by Region>

Division I
Region 1 - 62%
Region 2 - 38%

Division II
Region 3 - 17%
Region 4 - 19%
Region 5 - 9%
Region 6 - 55%

Division III
Region 7 - 27%
Region 8 - 38%
Region 9 - 15%
Region 10 - 20%

Division IV
Region 11 - 44%
Region 12 - 5%
Region 13 - 6%
Region 14 - 45%

Division V
Region 15 - 26%
Region 16 - 38%
Region 17 - 32%
Region 18 - 5%

Division VI
Region 19 - 57%
Region 20 - 15%
Region 21 - 7%
Region 22 - 21%

Division VII
Region 23 - 2%
Region 24 - 1%
Region 25 - 2%
Region 26 - 95%