Ohio State Championship Odds
(updated after week #9)

These probabilities are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  Only teams with at least a 0.2% (1-in-500) chance of winning a state title are listed.

In 2013, five of the state champions werewere  listed first or second in their division entering the playoffs.  The others were Cincinnati Moeller (sixth in D-I, at 6.4%) and Clinton-Massie (4th in D-IV, at 5.4%).

In 2012, two of the state champions were at the top of their divisional listings after the regular season - Toledo Central Catholic in D-II and Coldwater in D-V.  Marion Local was 4th in D-VI at 11.6%, Clinton-Massie 4th in D-IV at 10.3%, Akron SVSM was 7th in D-III at 6.2%, and the longshot was Archbishop Moeller, 11th in D-I at 0.4%.

In 2011, three of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (Trotwood-Madison first at 42%, Kirtland second at 17%, and Marion Local second at 22%).  For the second year in a row, a true underdog won Division IV; this year it was Norwayne, which entered the playoffs at 1.0% (and 11th on the D-IV list).

In 2010, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (St. Edward 1st at 36%, Maple Heights 2nd at 10%, Bishop Watterson 2nd at 22%, Ursuline 1st at 80%, and Delphos St. John's 1st at 72%).  However, in Division IV, Bishop Hartley was quite a long-shot listed 17th (of 32 teams) most likely to win that title, at 0.8%.

Also in 2009, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division (Winton Woods - tied for 2nd at 14%, Cardinal Mooney 1st at 45%, Archbishop Alter 1st at 55%, Ursuline 1st at 33%, and Norwalk St. Paul 2nd at 14%).  The one surprise was D-I champ Hilliard Davidson, listed 9th at 4%.

Division 1 State Championship Probabilities
St Edward (Lakewood) 23.7%
Hudson 23.1%
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 21.7%
Mentor 7.0%
Wayne (Huber Heights) 5.4%
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 5.3%
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 4.7%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 1.7%
Centerville 1.6%
Elder (Cincinnati) 1.4%
Springboro 1.1%
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 0.9%
Colerain (Cincinnati) 0.8%
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 0.6%
Westerville Central (Westerville) 0.3%
Solon 0.2%

Division 2 State Championship Probabilities
La Salle (Cincinnati) 43.6%
Bedford 14.4%
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 11.4%
Nordonia (Macedonia) 9.9%
Mayfield 6.2%
Perrysburg 4.4%
Midview (Grafton) 2.8%
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 2.7%
Highland (Medina) 1.1%
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 0.9%
Kings (Kings Mills) 0.8%
Avon 0.6%
Lima Senior (Lima) 0.3%

Division 3 State Championship Probabilities
Central Catholic (Toledo) 36.1%
Hubbard 13.9%
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 12.7%
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 9.8%
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 8.7%
Wapakoneta 5.8%
Jackson 2.3%
Athens (The Plains) 2.2%
Aurora 2.2%
Clyde 1.5%
Norwalk 1.4%
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 1.0%
Louisville 0.7%
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 0.3%
Poland Seminary (Poland) 0.2%
Dover 0.2%

Division 4 State Championship Probabilities
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 36.2%
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 33.8%
Benedictine (Cleveland) 15.0%
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 5.4%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 2.3%
Kenton 1.9%
Triway (Wooster) 1.7%
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 0.9%
Wauseon 0.5%
Steubenville 0.5%
Beechcroft (Columbus) 0.4%
Bellevue 0.4%
Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin (Chardon) 0.3%

Division 5 State Championship Probabilities
Coldwater 30.8%
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 27.5%
Ursuline (Youngstown) 14.7%
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 14.5%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 2.7%
Huron 2.6%
Pleasant (Marion) 1.7%
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 1.6%
Badin (Hamilton) 1.2%
Wheelersburg 1.2%
St Clairsville 0.5%
Coshocton 0.3%

Division 6 State Championship Probabilities
Kirtland 26.7%
Loudonville 15.9%
Minster 10.6%
Mogadore 9.2%
Tinora (Defiance) 8.9%
Fredericktown 6.5%
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 5.5%
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 2.9%
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 2.5%
Spencerville 2.3%
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 1.2%
Wynford (Bucyrus) 1.2%
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 1.2%
Anna 1.0%
Mc Donald 0.8%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 0.6%
Centerburg 0.6%
Villa Angela-St Joseph (Cleveland) 0.4%
St Henry 0.4%
Valley (Lucasville) 0.3%

Division 7 State Championship Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 94.6%
Arlington 1.4%
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 1.1%
Shadyside 1.1%
St Paul (Norwalk) 0.7%
Trimble (Glouster) 0.6%
Fort Recovery 0.3%



State Championship Odds by Region

Division I
Region 1 - 59%
Region 2 - 41%

Division II
Region 3 - 21%
Region 4 - 20%
Region 5 - 12%
Region 6 - 47%

Division III
Region 7 - 26%
Region 8 - 39%
Region 9 - 16%
Region 10 - 19%

Division IV
Region 11 - 49%
Region 12 - 5%
Region 13 - 7%
Region 14 - 40%

Division V
Region 15 - 29%
Region 16 - 37%
Region 17 - 30%
Region 18 - 4%

Division VI
Region 19 - 57%
Region 20 - 15%
Region 21 - 9%
Region 22 - 19%

Division VII
Region 23 - 2%
Region 24 - 2%
Region 25 - 2%
Region 26 - 95%