Ohio State Championship Odds
(updated after week #8)

These probabilities are based on at least 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season and playoffs.  Only teams with at least a 0.2% (1-in-500) chance of winning a state title are listed.

In 2013, five of the state champions werewere  listed first or second in their division entering the playoffs.  The others were Cincinnati Moeller (sixth in D-I, at 6.4%) and Clinton-Massie (4th in D-IV, at 5.4%).

In 2012, two of the state champions were at the top of their divisional listings after the regular season - Toledo Central Catholic in D-II and Coldwater in D-V.  Marion Local was 4th in D-VI at 11.6%, Clinton-Massie 4th in D-IV at 10.3%, Akron SVSM was 7th in D-III at 6.2%, and the longshot was Archbishop Moeller, 11th in D-I at 0.4%.

In 2011, three of the six state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (Trotwood-Madison first at 42%, Kirtland second at 17%, and Marion Local second at 22%).  For the second year in a row, a true underdog won Division IV; this year it was Norwayne, which entered the playoffs at 1.0% (and 11th on the D-IV list).

In 2010, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division at the end of the regular season (St. Edward 1st at 36%, Maple Heights 2nd at 10%, Bishop Watterson 2nd at 22%, Ursuline 1st at 80%, and Delphos St. John's 1st at 72%).  However, in Division IV, Bishop Hartley was quite a long-shot listed 17th (of 32 teams) most likely to win that title, at 0.8%.

Also in 2009, five state champions were listed in the top two of their division (Winton Woods - tied for 2nd at 14%, Cardinal Mooney 1st at 45%, Archbishop Alter 1st at 55%, Ursuline 1st at 33%, and Norwalk St. Paul 2nd at 14%).  The one surprise was D-I champ Hilliard Davidson, listed 9th at 4%.

Division 1 State Championship Probabilities
St Ignatius (Cleveland) 22.3%
Mentor 20.9%
St Xavier (Cincinnati) 14.7%
Hudson 10.9%
Wayne (Huber Heights) 7.7%
St Edward (Lakewood) 7.1%
Archbishop Moeller (Cincinnati) 5.9%
Dublin Coffman (Dublin) 3.3%
Centerville 1.6%
Westerville Central (Westerville) 1.3%
Elder (Cincinnati) 1.0%
Colerain (Cincinnati) 0.7%
Springboro 0.6%
Lakota East (Liberty Township) 0.5%
Hilliard Darby (Hilliard) 0.4%
Miamisburg 0.3%
Olentangy Liberty (Powell) 0.2%

Division 2 State Championship Probabilities
La Salle (Cincinnati) 43.1%
Olentangy (Lewis Center) 13.2%
Nordonia (Macedonia) 9.6%
Bedford 9.3%
Mayfield 6.3%
Mount Healthy (Cincinnati) 3.9%
Perrysburg 3.9%
Walsh Jesuit (Cuyahoga Falls) 3.0%
Midview (Grafton) 2.8%
Kings (Kings Mills) 1.2%
Highland (Medina) 0.9%
Lima Senior (Lima) 0.8%
Massillon Washington (Massillon) 0.6%
Glenville Academic Campus (Cleveland) 0.5%
Avon 0.4%
Madison 0.2%

Division 3 State Championship Probabilities
Central Catholic (Toledo) 25.8%
Hubbard 18.5%
Trotwood-Madison (Trotwood) 13.2%
Tri-Valley (Dresden) 7.5%
Wapakoneta 7.2%
St Vincent-St Mary (Akron) 6.5%
St Francis De Sales (Columbus) 4.3%
Athens (The Plains) 3.7%
Aurora 3.6%
Norwalk 2.7%
Clyde 1.9%
Jackson 1.6%
Louisville 1.1%
Dover 0.4%
Tippecanoe (Tipp City) 0.4%
Thurgood Marshall (Dayton) 0.4%
Tallmadge 0.2%
Poland Seminary (Poland) 0.2%

Division 4 State Championship Probabilities
Archbishop Alter (Kettering) 43.4%
Cardinal Mooney (Youngstown) 22.6%
Benedictine (Cleveland) 12.8%
Marion-Franklin (Columbus) 6.8%
Clinton-Massie (Clarksville) 3.6%
Kenton 3.0%
Triway (Wooster) 2.2%
Archbishop Mcnicholas (Cincinnati) 1.3%
Steubenville 1.1%
Wauseon 0.9%
Bellevue 0.5%
Beechcroft (Columbus) 0.4%
Maysville (Zanesville) 0.3%

Division 5 State Championship Probabilities
Coldwater 30.3%
Ursuline (Youngstown) 19.9%
Bishop Hartley (Columbus) 18.2%
Canton Central Catholic (Canton) 17.2%
Cincinnati Hills Christian (Cincinnati) 3.3%
Huron 2.6%
Pleasant (Marion) 2.4%
Liberty-Benton (Findlay) 1.9%
Badin (Hamilton) 1.1%
Wheelersburg 0.9%
St Clairsville 0.7%
Coshocton 0.3%
Eastwood (Pemberville) 0.3%
Chippewa (Doylestown) 0.2%

Division 6 State Championship Probabilities
Kirtland 21.4%
Loudonville 16.3%
Mogadore 12.0%
Minster 10.8%
Fredericktown 7.3%
Garaway (Sugarcreek) 4.6%
Tinora (Defiance) 4.2%
Spencerville 3.6%
Tri-County North (Lewisburg) 3.4%
Lima Central Catholic (Lima) 2.7%
St Henry 2.2%
Ridgewood (West Lafayette) 1.8%
Wynford (Bucyrus) 1.8%
Crestview (Convoy) 1.2%
Anna 1.2%
Mc Donald 0.9%
Centerburg 0.9%
Hillsdale (Jeromesville) 0.7%
West Liberty-Salem (West Liberty) 0.6%
St Thomas Aquinas (Louisville) 0.5%
Valley (Lucasville) 0.4%
Versailles 0.3%
Wayne Trace (Haviland) 0.3%

Division 7 State Championship Probabilities
Marion Local (Maria Stein) 94.9%
Shadyside 1.4%
Western Reserve (Berlin Center) 1.2%
St Paul (Norwalk) 1.0%
Arlington 0.8%
Trimble (Glouster) 0.4%

 



State Championship Odds by Region>

Division I
Region 1 - 63%
Region 2 - 37%

Division II
Region 3 - 16%
Region 4 - 21%
Region 5 - 13%
Region 6 - 49%

Division III
Region 7 - 30%
Region 8 - 30%
Region 9 - 18%
Region 10 - 21%

Division IV
Region 11 - 36%
Region 12 - 7%
Region 13 - 9%
Region 14 - 49%

Division V
Region 15 - 37%
Region 16 - 38%
Region 17 - 20%
Region 18 - 5%

Division VI
Region 19 - 56%
Region 20 - 14%
Region 21 - 11%
Region 22 - 19%

Division VII
Region 23 - 2%
Region 24 - 1%
Region 25 - 2%
Region 26 - 95%