Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#281 Greenville (3-1) 106.2

Updated 20-Sep-2019 10:27PM
Week 4 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#58 of 107 in Division III
#14 of 27 in Region 12
Eitel team page
Region 12 projections
Region 12 playoff probabilities
Region 12 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 30 (W1) W 13-6 H #522 Eaton (0-4 D4 R16), pick: W by 13 (74%)
Sep 06 (W2) W 21-10 H #413 Riverside Stebbins (1-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 4 (58%)
Sep 13 (W3) L 16-37 H #87 Dayton Chaminade Julienne (3-0 D3 R12), pick: L by 14 (77%)
Sep 20 (W4) W 29-26 A #401 Fairborn (1-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 27 (W5) H #116 Troy (3-1 D2 R7), pick: L by 12 (76%)
Oct 04 (W6) A #329 Tipp City Tippecanoe (1-3 D3 R12), pick: W by 2 (55%)
Oct 11 (W7) H #599 West Carrollton (0-4 D2 R8), pick: W by 27 (94%)
Oct 18 (W8) A #220 Piqua (2-2 D2 R7), pick: L by 6 (64%)
Oct 25 (W9) A #246 Vandalia Butler (2-2 D3 R12), pick: L by 4 (60%)
Nov 01 (W10) H #315 Sidney (1-3 D2 R7), pick: W by 4 (59%)

Lists on which the team appears
Playoff streaks & droughts

Strength of schedule
(based on all regular-season games)
#66 of 107 in Division 3

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 6-4
12.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
4W-12%, 5W-22%, 6W-27%, 7W-22%, 8W-13%

Playoff chance
30% now (bubble if 7-3), 6% home
68% with a win in next game, and 18% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 9.75 (7.40-15.90) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 12.70 (10.30-18.30) 7% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 16.00 (13.30-21.05) 56% in, 2% home, proj. #8 (#3-out)
8W: 19.60 (17.25-25.30) 98% in, 24% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
9W: 23.55 (21.90-26.50) 100% in, 85% home, proj. #3 (#1-#7)

Best realistic scenario
3.5% WWWWWW 23.55 pts, 100% in, 85% home (#3, range #1-#7) Franklin 15%

Worst realistic scenario
9.6% LLWLLL 6.80 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
7.2% LWWLLW 12.00 pts, 1% in (out, range #7-out)
7.0% LLWLLW 9.60 pts, out
6.4% LWWLLL 9.27 pts, out
5.7% LWWLWW 15.40 pts, 47% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Wapakoneta 39%
5.5% LWWWWW 18.90 pts, 97% in, 15% home (#6, range #3-out) Archbishop Alter 16%
4.7% LWWWLW 15.45 pts, 40% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Wapakoneta 34%
(50% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 6: Eaton (0-4 D4 R16) over Monroe (0-3 D3 R12)
Week 8: Riverside Stebbins (1-3 D2 R8) over Vandalia Butler (2-2 D3 R12)
Week 5: Eaton (0-4 D4 R16) over Dayton Oakwood (1-2 D4 R16)
Week 7: Riverside Stebbins (1-3 D2 R8) over Tipp City Tippecanoe (1-3 D3 R12)
Week 6: Kenton (3-1 D4 R16) over St Marys Memorial (2-2 D3 R12)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
22% Wapakoneta (4-0)
18% Kettering Archbishop Alter (3-0)
14% Dayton Chaminade Julienne (3-0)
11% Franklin (2-1)
8% Trotwood-Madison (3-1)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W3: 104.4 (2-1, #296, D3 #60) 24% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home, proj. 5-5, out
W2: 104.2 (2-0, #305, D3 #66) 32% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home, proj. 6-4, #8
W1: 99.9 (1-0, #367, D3 #81) 14% (need 7-3), 4% home, proj. 4-6, out
W0: 99.9 (0-0, #372, D3 #84) 12% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home, proj. 4-6, out
Last year 95.7 (3-7)