Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#318 Sandusky Perkins (2-1) 103.7

Updated 20-Sep-2019 10:27PM
Week 4 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#43 of 106 in Division IV
#13 of 27 in Region 14
Eitel team page
Region 14 projections
Region 14 playoff probabilities
Region 14 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 30 (W1) L 13-46 A #227 Elyria Catholic (2-1 D5 R18), pick: L by 8 (65%)
Sep 06 (W2) W 42-35 A #519 Maumee (0-4 D3 R10), pick: W by 9 (67%)
Sep 13 (W3) W 61-28 A #455 Columbus Independence (1-2 D3 R11), pick: L by 1 (52%)
Sep 20 (W4) H #567 Vermilion (0-3 D4 R14), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Sep 27 (W5) H #269 Huron (2-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Oct 04 (W6) A #160 Clyde (2-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 14 (79%)
Oct 11 (W7) H #117 Bellevue (3-0 D4 R14), pick: L by 15 (80%)
Oct 18 (W8) H #149 Norwalk (3-1 D3 R10), pick: L by 12 (75%)
Oct 25 (W9) A #82 Tiffin Columbian (3-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 22 (89%)
Nov 01 (W10) A #71 Sandusky (3-0 D3 R10), pick: L by 24 (92%)

Strength of schedule
(based on all regular-season games)
#12 of 106 in Division 4

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 4-6
8.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R14 playoffs

Win probabilities:
2W-4%, 3W-27%, 4W-31%, 5W-21%, 6W-11%

Playoff chance
12% now (bubble if 6-4), 4% home
13% with a win in next game, and 3% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
5W: 11.80 (7.05-17.70) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
6W: 15.50 (11.40-20.80) 48% in, 4% home, proj. out
7W: 19.25 (14.70-23.95) 97% in, 46% home, proj. #5 (#1-out)
8W: 23.65 (20.60-28.10) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #2 (#1-#5)

Best realistic scenario
2.1% WWWLWLL 14.60 pts, 33% in, 1% home (out, range #4-out) Bellevue 26%

Worst realistic scenario
4.5% LLLLLLL 3.75 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
23% WLLLLLL 4.70 pts, out
13% WWLLLLL 8.25 pts, out
5.1% WLLLWLL 7.75 pts, out
4.6% WWLLWLL 11.35 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)
4.0% WLLWLLL 8.40 pts, out
3.6% WLWLLLL 7.90 pts, out
(40% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 5: Maumee (0-4 D3 R10) over Sylvania Southview (1-2 D2 R7)
Week 10: Archbold (4-0 D6 R23) over Wauseon (4-0 D4 R14)
Week 7: Oak Harbor (4-0 D5 R18) over Huron (2-1 D4 R14)
Week 8: Akron Manchester (3-1 D5 R17) over Canal Fulton Northwest (3-0 D4 R14)
Week 5: Dayton Dunbar (0-4 D3 R12) over Dayton Thurgood Marshall (1-2 D4 R16)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
12% Bellevue (3-0)
12% Bellville Clear Fork (2-1)
12% Wauseon (4-0)
9% Galion (4-0)
8% Lorain Clearview (3-0)

Championship probabilities
1.1% Region 14 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W3: 103.4 (2-1, #315, D4 #41) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. 4-6, out
W2: 100.1 (1-1, #358, D4 #49) 10% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. 3-7, out
W1: 100.2 (0-1, #361, D4 #52) 12% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home, proj. 3-7, out
W0: 103.7 (0-0, #310, D4 #40) 26% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home, proj. 4-6, out
Last year 101.5 (2-8)