Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#184 Sunbury Big Walnut (2-1) 114.0

Updated 20-Sep-2019 10:27PM
Week 4 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#47 of 107 in Division II
#10 of 27 in Region 7
Eitel team page
Region 7 projections
Region 7 playoff probabilities
Region 7 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 30 (W1) L 7-21 A #165 Johnstown-Monroe (1-2 D5 R19), pick: L by 11 (69%)
Sep 06 (W2) W 48-20 A #440 Delaware Buckeye Valley (0-3 D3 R11), pick: W by 3 (57%)
Sep 13 (W3) W 21-14 H #221 Shelby (2-1 D4 R14), pick: L by 3 (56%)
Sep 20 (W4) H #86 Lewis Center Olentangy Orange (2-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Sep 27 (W5) A #109 Marysville (2-1 D1 R2), pick: L by 8 (68%)
Oct 04 (W6) A #449 Newark (0-3 D1 R1), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 11 (W7) H #370 Columbus Franklin Heights (2-1 D2 R8), pick: W by 16 (82%)
Oct 18 (W8) H #114 New Albany (2-1 D1 R3), pick: L by 5 (61%)
Oct 25 (W9) A #93 Groveport Madison (3-0 D1 R3), pick: L by 10 (72%)
Nov 01 (W10) H #81 Canal Winchester (3-0 D2 R8), pick: L by 8 (68%)

Strength of schedule
(based on all regular-season games)
#55 of 107 in Division 2

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 5-5
13.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R7 playoffs

Win probabilities:
3W-9%, 4W-21%, 5W-25%, 6W-21%, 7W-14%

Playoff chance
39% now (bubble if 6-4), 12% home
66% with a win in next game, and 26% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
4W: 9.75 (4.70-16.85) 1% in, 0% home, proj. out
5W: 13.50 (8.30-21.75) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out
6W: 17.35 (11.20-24.75) 65% in, 4% home, proj. #8 (#2-out)
7W: 21.60 (15.50-27.70) 98% in, 30% home, proj. #5 (#2-out)
8W: 25.80 (19.55-31.35) 99% in, 79% home, proj. #4 (#1-out)
9W: 30.08 (23.60-35.60) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #2 (#1-#6)

Best realistic scenario
2.2% WWWWWWW 30.08 pts, 100% in, 98% home (#2, range #1-#6) Westerville South 15%

Worst realistic scenario
4.4% LLWLLLL 6.35 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
12% LLWWLLL 9.10 pts, out
5.0% LLWWWLL 12.98 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out) Central Catholic 57%
3.6% LLLWLLL 7.90 pts, out
3.6% LLWWLLW 14.48 pts, 15% in (out, range #5-out) Anthony Wayne 37%
3.4% WLWWLLL 12.65 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out)
3.3% LWWWLLL 12.40 pts, 6% in (out, range #6-out)
(63% some other outcome)

Teams to root for
Week 8: Shelby (2-1 D4 R14) over Lima Central Catholic (2-1 D6 R23)
Week 9: Shelby (2-1 D4 R14) over Caledonia River Valley (3-1 D3 R10)
Week 6: Shelby (2-1 D4 R14) over Marion Harding (1-2 D2 R7)
Week 5: Columbus Franklin Heights (2-1 D2 R8) over Westerville North (0-3 D1 R3)
Week 4: Shelby (2-1 D4 R14) over Ontario (2-1 D4 R14)

Most likely first-round playoff opponents
18% Whitehouse Anthony Wayne (4-0)
16% Troy (3-1)
16% Toledo Central Catholic (4-0)
12% Westerville South (3-0)
9% Lewis Center Olentangy (2-1)

Championship probabilities
1.1% Region 7 champ

Weekly ranking & projection history
W3: 113.3 (2-1, #188, D2 #50) 40% (need 6-4), 13% home, proj. 5-5, out
W2: 110.0 (1-1, #224, D2 #61) 27% (need 6-4), 8% home, proj. 4-6, out
W1: 108.1 (0-1, #252, D2 #66) 19% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home, proj. 4-6, out
W0: 109.9 (0-0, #223, D2 #65) 25% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home, proj. 4-6, out
Last year 109.1 (3-7)