Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#242 Goshen (4-0) 111.9

Updated 17-Sep-2017 7:55AM
Week 4 complete
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#56 of 107 in Division III
#14 of 27 in Region 12
Eitel team page

Schedule and results
Aug 26 (W1) W 56-9 H Holy Cross (Covington) KY (0-5 D6)
Sep 01 (W2) W 39-15 A #409 Hillsboro (3-1 D3 R11), pick: L by 5 (60%)
Sep 08 (W3) W 50-7 A #594 Williamsburg (1-3 D6 R24), pick: W by 19 (84%)
Sep 15 (W4) W 55-17 H #433 Norwood (2-2 D4 R16), pick: W by 12 (74%)
Sep 22 (W5) H #509 Blanchester (1-3 D5 R20), pick: W by 22 (90%)
Sep 29 (W6) A #502 Mount Orab Western Brown (1-3 D2 R8), pick: W by 19 (86%)
Oct 06 (W7) A #165 Wilmington (3-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 8 (67%)
Oct 13 (W8) H #49 Clarksville Clinton-Massie (4-0 D4 R16), pick: L by 19 (86%)
Oct 20 (W9) H #484 Batavia (3-1 D4 R16), pick: W by 20 (88%)
Oct 27 (W10) A #209 New Richmond (3-1 D3 R12), pick: L by 4 (59%)

Strength of schedule
(no future, non-OHSAA, or playoff games)
(this feature is returning soon)

Regular season projections
Projected record 8-2
20.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected #5 seed in R12 playoffs

Win probabilities:
6W-12%, 7W-37%, 8W-36%, 9W-13%, 10W-1%

Playoff chance
58% now (need 8-2), 17% home
60% with a win in next game, and 40% with a loss

More conditional playoff info
(based on number of wins)
6W: 14.45 (10.95-19.05) 3% in, 0% home, proj. out
7W: 17.00 (13.10-23.25) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out
8W: 20.55 (16.40-26.40) 92% in, 14% home, proj. #6 (#2-out)
9W: 24.50 (20.95-28.80) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #4 (#1-#8)
10W: 28.95 (26.65-31.70) 100% in, 100% home, proj. #2 (#1-#3)

Best realistic scenario
2.6% WWLWWW 25.05 pts, 100% in, 80% home (#3, range #1-#7) Archbishop Alter 18%

Worst realistic scenario
3.1% WWLLLL 13.65 pts, 1% in (out, range #8-out)

Most likely other scenarios
23% WWLLWL 16.30 pts, 10% in (out, range #5-out) Franklin 53%
16% WWLLWW 20.15 pts, 89% in, 7% home (#7, range #3-out) Trotwood-Madison 25%
11% WWWLWL 20.30 pts, 93% in, 9% home (#6, range #3-out) Trotwood-Madison 23%
8.2% WWWLWW 24.15 pts, 100% in, 79% home (#4, range #1-#8) Dunbar 20%
3.9% WWLWWL 21.20 pts, 92% in, 16% home (#6, range #2-out) Trotwood-Madison 21%
3.7% WLLLWL 14.65 pts, 2% in (out, range #7-out)
(29% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W4: 111.9 (4-0, #242, D3 #56) 58% (need 8-2), 17% home, proj. #5
W3: 109.1 (3-0, #275, D3 #68) 46% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home, proj. out
W2: 107.1 (#303, D3 #72) 34% (need 8-2), 8% home, proj. out
W1: 98.7 (#429, D3 #88) 11% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home, proj. out
W0: 96.2 (#425, D3 #88) 6% (need 8-2), 1% home, proj. out