Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50

Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions


#645 Springfield Northeastern (0-3) 71.4

Updated 20-Sep-2019 10:27PM
Week 4 in progress
Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

Rankings
#96 of 107 in Division VI
#22 of 27 in Region 24
Eitel team page
Region 24 projections
Region 24 playoff probabilities
Region 24 seeding probabilities
Regional champion probabilities

Schedule and results
Aug 30 (W1) L 14-27 H #533 Worthington Christian (2-1 D6 R24), pick: L by 2 (54%)
Sep 06 (W2) L 0-41 A #381 Springfield Northwestern (2-1 D4 R16), pick: L by 24 (88%)
Sep 13 (W3) L 7-44 H #317 Springfield Greenon (3-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 23 (89%)
Sep 20 (W4) A #697 Springfield Catholic Central (0-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 13 (76%)
Sep 27 (W5) H #693 Cedarville (0-3 D7 R28), pick: W by 14 (79%)
Oct 04 (W6) H #530 Milford Center Fairbanks (1-2 D6 R24), pick: L by 14 (78%)
Oct 11 (W7) A #155 West Jefferson (4-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 37 (98%)
Oct 18 (W8) A #170 Mechanicsburg (3-0 D6 R24), pick: L by 36 (98%)
Oct 25 (W9) H #243 West Liberty-Salem (4-0 D5 R20), pick: L by 31 (96%)
Nov 01 (W10) A #624 North Lewisburg Triad (1-3 D6 R24), pick: L by 5 (62%)

Strength of schedule
(based on all regular-season games)
#44 of 107 in Division 6

Regular season projections
Final L2 divisor 100
Projected record 2-8
1.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
Projected out of R24 playoffs

Win probabilities:
0W-6%, 1W-19%, 2W-37%, 3W-28%, 4W-9%

Playoff chance
1% now
1% with a win in next game, and 0% with a loss

Best realistic scenario
8.2% WWWLLLW 3.65 pts, out

Worst realistic scenario
5.6% LLLLLLL 0.00 pts, out

Most likely other scenarios
26% WWLLLLL 1.05 pts, out
17% WWLLLLW 2.15 pts, out
8.7% LWLLLLL 0.70 pts, out
8.4% WLLLLLL 0.35 pts, out
7.1% WWWLLLL 2.55 pts, out
4.1% LWLLLLW 1.45 pts, out
(15% some other outcome)

Weekly ranking & projection history
W3: 72.7 (0-3, #642, D6 #95) out
W2: 72.8 (0-2, #650, D6 #99) 1% , proj. 2-8, out
W1: 74.6 (0-1, #640, D6 #93) 1% , proj. 2-8, out
W0: 77.7 (0-0, #626, D6 #89) 8% (need 7-3), 3% home, proj. 3-7, out
Last year 73.0 (1-9)