Drew Pasteur's NCAA D3 Men's Basketball Bracketology

Drew Pasteur's NCAA D3 Men's Basketball Bracketology


All scores courtesy of D3Hoops.com
See also Matt Snyder's page
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Last update: 17-Feb-2019 7:43PM, with 5000 sims

History: 56/61 (92%) Pool C teams correct in 2016-2018
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Regional details pages: NE EA AT MA SO GL CE WE

Simplified info on team status

Top Pool-C-if-needed teams
* Percentage is Pool C chance if no Pool A/B berth
* Some of the 20 Pool C berths will go to current Pool A teams who lose in conference tournaments.
* After Pool A/B chance is projected resume (WP / SOS / vRRO) if no Pool A/B berth,
or (during conf. tourney) Pool C chance by round reached
* Current Pool A/B favorites are in blue text.

Locks & near-locks
100% (A) Whitman (24-1, 16-0 NWC, WP 0.960, SOS 0.554, NCSOS 0.568, 4-1 vRRO, WE#2) 83% A
100% (A) Nebraska_Wesleyan (24-1, 15-1 ARC, WP 0.960, SOS 0.570, NCSOS 0.560, 1-1 vRRO, WE#1) 76% A
100% (A) Augustana (23-2, 15-1 CCIW, WP 0.920, SOS 0.537, NCSOS 0.505, 7-2 vRRO, CE#1) 69% A
100% (A) Randolph-Macon (23-2, 15-1 ODAC, WP 0.920, SOS 0.525, NCSOS 0.555, 4-2 vRRO, SO#1) 67% A
100% (A) Christopher_Newport (22-3, 12-2 CAC, WP 0.880, SOS 0.543, NCSOS 0.515, 5-3 vRRO, MA#2) 67% A
100% (A) Hamilton (22-3, 7-3 NESCAC, WP 0.880, SOS 0.553, NCSOS 0.496, 4-3 vRRO, NE#4) 48% A
100% (C#1) Amherst (21-4, 7-3 NESCAC, WP 0.840, SOS 0.560, NCSOS 0.473, 6-3 vRRO, NE#1) 32% A
100% (A) Swarthmore (22-3, 15-3 CC, WP 0.880, SOS 0.528, NCSOS 0.582, 4-1 vRRO, MA#1) 73% A
100% (A) MIT (22-3, 12-2 NEWMAC, WP 0.880, SOS 0.551, NCSOS 0.543, 1-0 vRRO, NE#2) 73% A
100% (A) Nichols (23-2, 15-1 CCC, WP 0.920, SOS 0.517, NCSOS 0.554, 3-2 vRRO, NE#3) 65% A
99% (C#2) Williams (20-5, 6-4 NESCAC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.594, NCSOS 0.550, 5-4 vRRO, NE#6) 19% A
99% (A) UW-Oshkosh (23-2, 13-1 WIAC, WP 0.920, SOS 0.540, NCSOS 0.461, 3-2 vRRO, CE#2) 67% A
99% (C#3) Loras (20-5, 12-4 ARC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.577, NCSOS 0.578, 3-1 vRRO, WE#4) 12% A
99% (A) St._Thomas (22-3, 18-2 MIAC, WP 0.880, SOS 0.526, NCSOS 0.561, 3-2 vRRO, WE#3) 49% A
99% (A) Wooster (21-4, 16-2 NCAC, WP 0.840, SOS 0.532, NCSOS 0.539, 5-3 vRRO, GL#3) 53% A
99% (C#4) Marietta (20-5, 14-4 OAC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.549, NCSOS 0.572, 4-4 vRRO, GL#2) 24% A
99% (C#5) Middlebury (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, WP 0.708, SOS 0.599, NCSOS 0.587, 4-5 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A
98% (C#6) Rowan (18-6, 13-5 NJAC, WP 0.750, SOS 0.548, NCSOS 0.582, 7-3 vRRO, AT#2) 33% A

Strong contenders
97% (C#7) Rochester (20-4, 10-3 UAA, WP 0.833, SOS 0.528, NCSOS 0.495, 5-1 vRRO, EA#1) 36% A, proj. 0.800 / 0.537 / 4-2
97% (A) Emory (19-5, 9-3 UAA, WP 0.792, SOS 0.558, NCSOS 0.546, 1-4 vRRO, SO#3) 64% A, proj. 0.760 / 0.562 / 3-3
95% (C#8) St._John's (21-4, 17-3 MIAC, WP 0.840, SOS 0.522, NCSOS 0.546, 4-1 vRRO, WE#6) 42% A, fin 98% C, semi 87% C
94% (C#9) York_(Pa.) (19-6, 12-2 CAC, WP 0.760, SOS 0.548, NCSOS 0.521, 5-4 vRRO, MA#3) 20% A, fin 99% C, semi 92% C, qtr 80% C
91% (A) Capital (19-6, 14-4 OAC, WP 0.760, SOS 0.541, NCSOS 0.537, 4-3 vRRO, GL#1) 35% A, fin 98% C, semi 90% C, qtr 75% C
88% (A) New_Jersey_City (19-6, 14-4 NJAC, WP 0.760, SOS 0.543, NCSOS 0.555, 5-5 vRRO, AT#1) 45% A, fin 98% C, semi 80% C
88% (C#10) Wittenberg (19-5, 14-4 NCAC, WP 0.792, SOS 0.526, NCSOS 0.522, 5-4 vRRO, GL#5) 27% A, fin 99% C, semi 87% C, qtr 66% C
85% (C#11) Plattsburgh_State (19-5, 13-4 SUNYAC, WP 0.792, SOS 0.530, NCSOS 0.528, 5-3 vRRO, EA#2) 35% A, fin 93% C, semi 76% C
83% (C#12) Wheaton_(Ill.) (18-7, 11-5 CCIW, WP 0.720, SOS 0.567, NCSOS 0.587, 4-4 vRRO, CE#3) 10% A, fin 99% C, semi 82% C, qtr 61% C
82% (A) Pomona-Pitzer (19-2, 14-1 SCIAC, WP 0.905, SOS 0.498, NCSOS 0.535, 1-0 vRRO, WE#5) 61% A, proj. 0.875 / 0.508 / 1-1

Bubble-in
75% (A) Centre (19-4, 12-2 SAA, WP 0.826, SOS 0.532, NCSOS 0.545, 1-1 vRRO, SO#2) 59% A, fin 84% C, semi 70% C, qtr 49% C
73% (A) Keene_State (18-7, 13-3 LEC, WP 0.720, SOS 0.567, NCSOS 0.638, 2-4 vRRO, NE#11) 49% A, fin 84% C, semi 57% C
71% (A) Arcadia (20-5, 14-2 MACC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.527, NCSOS 0.576, 1-2 vRRO, MA#6) 58% A, fin 78% C, semi 58% C
68% (C#13) Eastern_Connecticut (19-6, 13-3 LEC, WP 0.760, SOS 0.544, NCSOS 0.572, 2-4 vRRO, NE#7) 35% A, fin 78% C, semi 59% C
67% (A) Oswego_State (20-5, 15-3 SUNYAC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.526, NCSOS 0.525, 4-3 vRRO, EA#3) 45% A, fin 81% C, semi 55% C
60% (C#14) Salisbury (18-7, 8-6 CAC, WP 0.720, SOS 0.566, NCSOS 0.568, 4-6 vRRO, MA#4) 5% A, fin 89% C, semi 66% C, qtr 31% C
59% (C#15) Gordon (21-4, 13-3 CCC, WP 0.840, SOS 0.508, NCSOS 0.523, 2-2 vRRO, NE#8) 20% A, fin 76% C, semi 38% C, qtr 21% C
54% (A) La_Roche (23-2, 18-0 AMCC, WP 0.920, SOS 0.500, NCSOS 0.547, 0-1 vRRO, GL#4) 68% A, fin 63% C, semi 31% C

Bubble-out
46% (C#16) Wabash (18-5, 14-4 NCAC, WP 0.783, SOS 0.524, NCSOS 0.508, 3-4 vRRO, GL#8) 15% A, fin 84% C, semi 38% C, qtr 14% C
43% (C#17) North_Central_(Ill.) (20-5, 12-4 CCIW, WP 0.800, SOS 0.520, NCSOS 0.452, 3-3 vRRO, CE#5) 14% A, fin 71% C, semi 18% C
41% (A) Drew (20-5, 12-2 LAND, WP 0.800, SOS 0.518, NCSOS 0.504, 2-2 vRRO, MA) 41% A, fin 64% C, semi 27% C
30% (C#18) Scranton (20-5, 9-5 LAND, WP 0.800, SOS 0.509, NCSOS 0.488, 2-0 vRRO, MA#7) 17% A, fin 62% C, semi 20% C
26% (C#19) Ramapo (18-8, 11-7 NJAC, WP 0.692, SOS 0.562, NCSOS 0.621, 8-4 vRRO, AT#3) 12% A, fin 76% C, semi 12% C
25% (C#20) Mary_Hardin-Baylor (20-5, 11-5 ASC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.515, NCSOS 0.521, 0-0 vRRO, SO#6) 22% A, fin 49% C, semi 16% C, qtr 9% C
20% (C#21) Mount_Union (20-5, 14-4 OAC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.507, NCSOS 0.420, 4-2 vRRO, GL#6) 24% A, fin 41% C, semi 12% C

Fringe contenders
18% (A) Texas-Dallas (20-4, 13-3 ASC, WP 0.833, SOS 0.500, NCSOS 0.490, 1-1 vRRO, SO) 46% A, fin 28% C, semi 15% C, qtr 5% C
12% (C#22) Whitworth (20-5, 12-4 NWC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.523, NCSOS 0.486, 1-2 vRRO, WE#7) 10% A, fin 18% C
9% (C#23) Washington_and_Lee (18-7, 11-5 ODAC, WP 0.720, SOS 0.534, NCSOS 0.531, 4-3 vRRO, SO#7) 8% A, fin 37% C, semi 10% C
8% (C#24) Wilmington (17-7, 13-5 OAC, WP 0.708, SOS 0.536, NCSOS 0.513, 3-5 vRRO, GL#7) 8% A, fin 35% C, semi 5% C
6% (C#25) Lynchburg (20-5, 11-5 ODAC, WP 0.800, SOS 0.497, NCSOS 0.461, 3-4 vRRO, SO#5) 6% A, fin 27% C
6% (C#26) Wartburg (15-7, 11-5 ARC, WP 0.682, SOS 0.570, NCSOS 0.540, 1-4 vRRO, WE) 8% A, fin 18% C

Longshots
4% (C#27) Guilford (18-8, 12-4 ODAC, WP 0.692, SOS 0.533, NCSOS 0.528, 3-4 vRRO, SO#4) 9% A, fin 15% C
3% (C#28) Mary_Washington (17-8, 9-5 CAC, WP 0.680, SOS 0.551, NCSOS 0.532, 4-6 vRRO, MA#5) 7% A, fin 11% C
3% (C#29) Mass-Dartmouth (18-7, 12-4 LEC, WP 0.720, SOS 0.523, NCSOS 0.521, 2-3 vRRO, NE) 11% A, fin 16% C
2% (C#30) Bethel (18-7, 15-5 MIAC, WP 0.720, SOS 0.520, NCSOS 0.528, 2-5 vRRO, WE) 6% A, fin 12% C
1% (C#31) UW-Whitewater (17-8, 6-8 WIAC, WP 0.680, SOS 0.568, NCSOS 0.531, 2-6 vRRO, CE) 2% A, fin 15% C
1% (C#32) Illinois_Wesleyan (17-8, 10-6 CCIW, WP 0.680, SOS 0.560, NCSOS 0.564, 2-7 vRRO, CE#7) 6% A, fin 10% C