Drew Pasteur's NCAA D3 Men's Basketball Bracketology

Drew Pasteur's NCAA D3 Men's Basketball Bracketology


All scores courtesy of D3Hoops.com
See also Matt Snyder's page
Interact via Twitter
Last update: 24-Feb-2019 7:48PM, with 2500 sims

History: 56/61 (92%) Pool C teams correct in 2016-2018
Mock regional rankings page
Top 25 teams
Teams by conference
Upcoming big games
Daily update
Bubble team details
Regional details pages: NE EA AT MA SO GL CE WE

Simplified info on team status

Confirmed Pool A teams
Whitman (26-1, 16-0 NWC, SOS 0.563, 5-1 vRRO, WE#1)
Nebraska_Wesleyan (26-1, 15-1 ARC, SOS 0.574, 2-1 vRRO, WE#2)
Amherst (23-4, 7-3 NESCAC, SOS 0.578, 8-3 vRRO, NE#1)
Christopher_Newport (25-3, 12-2 CAC, SOS 0.548, 7-3 vRRO, MA#1)
Swarthmore (24-3, 15-3 CC, SOS 0.536, 5-1 vRRO, MA#2)
Nichols (25-2, 15-1 CCC, SOS 0.525, 4-2 vRRO, NE#4)
Rowan (20-6, 13-5 NJAC, SOS 0.560, 9-3 vRRO, AT#1)
St._John's (23-4, 17-3 MIAC, SOS 0.534, 4-2 vRRO, WE#5)
Oswego_State (22-5, 15-3 SUNYAC, SOS 0.532, 8-4 vRRO, EA#3)
Wittenberg (22-5, 14-4 NCAC, SOS 0.545, 6-3 vRRO, GL#4)
North_Central_(Ill.) (22-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.544, 5-3 vRRO, CE#4)
Pomona-Pitzer (22-2, 15-1 SCIAC, SOS 0.510, 1-0 vRRO, WE#6)
Emory (20-5, 11-3 UAA, SOS 0.566, 2-4 vRRO, SO#3)
Keene_State (20-7, 13-3 LEC, SOS 0.575, 3-4 vRRO, NE#7)
Guilford (21-7, 12-4 ODAC, SOS 0.546, 5-4 vRRO, SO#5)
Arcadia (22-5, 14-2 MACC, SOS 0.530, 1-2 vRRO, MA#7)
Baldwin_Wallace (20-8, 11-7 OAC, SOS 0.551, 4-8 vRRO, GL#9)
Moravian (19-8, 10-4 LAND, SOS 0.540, 3-5 vRRO, MA)
Texas-Dallas (23-4, 13-3 ASC, SOS 0.504, 1-1 vRRO, SO)
Sewanee (18-6, 8-6 SAA, SOS 0.514, 3-1 vRRO, SO)
Farmingdale_State (20-7, 16-4 SKY, SOS 0.505, 2-4 vRRO, AT#7)
Skidmore (19-6, 15-3 LL, SOS 0.523, 0-2 vRRO, EA#4)
Albertus_Magnus (19-7, 9-2 GNAC, SOS 0.519, 0-4 vRRO, NE)
Albion (19-7, 10-4 MIAA, SOS 0.494, 2-1 vRRO, GL)
DeSales (21-5, 12-2 MACF, SOS 0.508, 0-2 vRRO, AT#6)
Alfred (21-4, 14-2 E8, SOS 0.492, 1-2 vRRO, EA)
UW-Platteville (17-10, 8-6 WIAC, SOS 0.593, 6-5 vRRO, CE)
Penn_State-Behrend (23-4, 14-4 AMCC, SOS 0.475, 1-2 vRRO, GL)
Maryville_(Tenn.) (17-7, 14-4 USAC, SOS 0.499, 0-1 vRRO, SO)
Morrisville_State (22-4, 15-1 NEAC, SOS 0.483, 0-2 vRRO, EA)
Texas_Lutheran (18-7, 11-3 SCAC, SOS 0.494, 0-2 vRRO, SO)
Hanover (19-6, 14-4 HCAC, SOS 0.486, 0-1 vRRO, GL)
Baruch (22-5, 14-2 CUNYAC, SOS 0.464, 1-1 vRRO, AT)
Salem_State (18-9, 10-2 MASCAC, SOS 0.522, 0-4 vRRO, NE)
Mitchell (17-7, 10-5 NECC, SOS 0.484, 0-0 vRRO, NE)
Emerson (16-10, 9-5 NEWMAC, SOS 0.567, 1-4 vRRO, NE)
Northwestern_(Minn.) (21-6, 15-1 UMAC, SOS 0.464, 0-0 vRRO, WE)
Lake_Forest (17-9, 12-6 MWC, SOS 0.502, 1-3 vRRO, CE)
Husson (17-10, 11-3 NAC, SOS 0.492, 0-3 vRRO, NE)
Aurora (17-11, 12-8 NACC, SOS 0.490, 0-1 vRRO, CE)
Chatham (17-9, 9-7 PAC, SOS 0.450, 0-0 vRRO, GL)
Eureka (13-11, 10-8 SLIAC, SOS 0.467, 0-0 vRRO, CE)

Top Pool-C-if-needed teams
* Percentage is Pool C chance if no Pool A/B berth
* Some of the 20 Pool C berths will go to current Pool A teams who lose in conference tournaments.
* After Pool A/B chance is projected resume (WP / SOS / vRRO) if no Pool A/B berth,
or (during conf. tourney) Pool C chance by round reached
* Current Pool A/B favorites are in blue text.

Locks & near-locks
100% (C#1) Augustana (24-3, 15-1 CCIW, WP 0.889, SOS 0.547, NCSOS 0.507, 8-3 vRRO, CE#1) 0% A
100% (C#2) Randolph-Macon (25-3, 15-1 ODAC, WP 0.893, SOS 0.539, NCSOS 0.558, 6-3 vRRO, SO#1) 0% A
100% (C#3) Williams (20-6, 6-4 NESCAC, WP 0.769, SOS 0.600, NCSOS 0.553, 6-5 vRRO, NE#3) 0% A
100% (C#4) Hamilton (23-4, 7-3 NESCAC, WP 0.852, SOS 0.559, NCSOS 0.501, 4-4 vRRO, NE#2) 0% A
100% (C#5) St._Thomas (22-4, 18-2 MIAC, WP 0.846, SOS 0.532, NCSOS 0.567, 4-1 vRRO, WE#4) 0% A
100% (C#6) UW-Oshkosh (23-3, 13-1 WIAC, WP 0.885, SOS 0.542, NCSOS 0.460, 3-3 vRRO, CE#2) 0% A
100% (C#7) MIT (22-4, 12-2 NEWMAC, WP 0.846, SOS 0.555, NCSOS 0.545, 1-0 vRRO, NE#5) 0% A
100% (C#8) Marietta (20-6, 14-4 OAC, WP 0.769, SOS 0.550, NCSOS 0.580, 6-4 vRRO, GL#1) 0% A
99% (C#9) Loras (21-6, 12-4 ARC, WP 0.778, SOS 0.587, NCSOS 0.579, 2-2 vRRO, WE#3) 0% A
99% (C#10) Middlebury (17-7, 7-3 NESCAC, WP 0.708, SOS 0.601, NCSOS 0.593, 4-5 vRRO, NE#6) 0% A
99% (C#11) York_(Pa.) (21-7, 12-2 CAC, WP 0.750, SOS 0.561, NCSOS 0.524, 6-4 vRRO, MA#3) 0% A
99% (C#12) Wooster (23-5, 16-2 NCAC, WP 0.821, SOS 0.543, NCSOS 0.548, 3-4 vRRO, GL#2) 0% A
99% (C#13) Rochester (20-5, 10-4 UAA, WP 0.800, SOS 0.538, NCSOS 0.498, 5-2 vRRO, EA#1) 0% A
98% (C#14) New_Jersey_City (20-7, 14-4 NJAC, WP 0.741, SOS 0.552, NCSOS 0.559, 6-6 vRRO, AT#2) 0% A

Strong contenders
94% (C#15) Capital (20-7, 14-4 OAC, WP 0.741, SOS 0.546, NCSOS 0.553, 6-4 vRRO, GL#3) 0% A, proj. 6-4 vRRO

Bubble-in
78% (C#16) Wheaton_(Ill.) (19-8, 11-5 CCIW, WP 0.704, SOS 0.574, NCSOS 0.588, 4-5 vRRO, CE#3) 0% A, proj. 4-5 vRRO
70% (C#17) Plattsburgh_State (20-6, 14-4 SUNYAC, WP 0.769, SOS 0.529, NCSOS 0.525, 6-6 vRRO, EA#2) 0% A, proj. 6-6 vRRO
70% (C#18) Centre (21-5, 12-2 SAA, WP 0.808, SOS 0.530, NCSOS 0.544, 1-1 vRRO, SO#2) 0% A, proj. 2-2 vRRO
69% (C#19) Eastern_Connecticut (20-7, 13-3 LEC, WP 0.741, SOS 0.557, NCSOS 0.574, 2-5 vRRO, NE#8) 0% A, proj. 2-5 vRRO
64% (C#20) Salisbury (19-8, 8-6 CAC, WP 0.704, SOS 0.575, NCSOS 0.572, 4-7 vRRO, MA#4) 0% A, proj. 4-7 vRRO

Bubble-out
59% (C#21) Gordon (23-5, 13-3 CCC, WP 0.821, SOS 0.522, NCSOS 0.518, 2-3 vRRO, NE#9) 0% A, proj. 2-3 vRRO
45% (C#22) La_Roche (24-3, 18-0 AMCC, WP 0.889, SOS 0.509, NCSOS 0.534, 0-1 vRRO, GL#5) 0% A, proj. 0-1 vRRO

Fringe contenders
16% (C#23) Whitworth (21-6, 12-4 NWC, WP 0.778, SOS 0.544, NCSOS 0.493, 1-3 vRRO, WE#7) 0% A, proj. 1-4 vRRO
15% (C#24) Ramapo (18-9, 11-7 NJAC, WP 0.667, SOS 0.569, NCSOS 0.624, 8-5 vRRO, AT#3) 0% A, proj. 8-5 vRRO
12% (C#25) Washington_and_Lee (19-8, 11-5 ODAC, WP 0.704, SOS 0.543, NCSOS 0.529, 5-5 vRRO, SO#4) 0% A, proj. 5-5 vRRO