Drew Pasteur's NCAA D3 Men's Basketball Bracketology

See also D3hoops.com, Massey ratings, D3 Datacast rankings
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Last update: 25-Feb-2024 3:27PM, with 5000 sims

History: 112/121 (93%) Pool C teams correct since 2016
Mock regional rankings page
Top 25 teams
Teams by conference
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Daily update
Bubble team details
Simplified info on team status
Regional details pages: R01 R02 R03 R04 R05 R06 R07 R08 R09 R10

Confirmed Pool A teams
Hampden-Sydney (26-2, 14-2 ODAC, SOS 0.613, 9-2 vRRO, R06#1)

Trinity CT (25-1, 9-1 NESCAC, SOS 0.547, 7-1 vRRO, R01#1)

John Carroll (25-2, 17-1 OAC, SOS 0.580, 3-1 vRRO, R07#2)

Case Western (21-4, 10-4 UAA, SOS 0.576, 11-4 vRRO, R07#1)

UW-Platteville (23-4, 12-2 WIAC, SOS 0.581, 3-2 vRRO, R09#1)

Keene St (24-3, 15-1 LEC, SOS 0.549, 4-2 vRRO, R02#1)

Catholic (24-3, 16-2 LAND, SOS 0.561, 2-1 vRRO, R05#3)

Loras (23-5, 11-5 ARC, SOS 0.530, 6-3 vRRO, R09#5)

St Joseph CT (24-4, 14-0 GNAC, SOS 0.539, 3-2 vRRO, R01#4)

Hope (22-6, 11-3 MIAA, SOS 0.554, 3-4 vRRO, R07#6)

Eastern (19-7, 10-4 MACC, SOS 0.591, 4-6 vRRO, R05#4)

Christopher Newport (21-6, 0-0 C2C, SOS 0.560, 3-3 vRRO, R06#5)

Swarthmore (20-8, 14-4 CENT, SOS 0.563, 5-7 vRRO, R05#5)

Stevens (22-5, 11-3 MACF, SOS 0.543, 4-3 vRRO, R04#6)

TCNJ (20-8, 11-7 NJAC, SOS 0.562, 6-4 vRRO, R04#5)

C-M-S (20-6, 13-3 SCIAC, SOS 0.532, 4-3 vRRO, R10#5)

Elmhurst (22-5, 12-4 CCIW, SOS 0.515, 3-1 vRRO, R08#3)

Bethany Lutheran (24-3, 14-0 UMAC, SOS 0.514, 1-1 vRRO, R09#7)

Hobart (22-5, 13-5 LL, SOS 0.527, 3-2 vRRO, R03#2)

Illinois College (23-4, 13-3 MWC, SOS 0.496, 1-0 vRRO, R09)

Utica (24-3, 15-1 E8, SOS 0.477, 3-1 vRRO, R03#4)

PSU-Harrisburg (24-4, 11-1 UEC, SOS 0.498, 0-2 vRRO, R04)

WI Lutheran (24-4, 16-2 NACC, SOS 0.494, 1-3 vRRO, R08#5)

Whitworth (18-8, 13-3 NWC, SOS 0.526, 1-2 vRRO, R10)

Geneva (24-3, 18-2 PAC, SOS 0.486, 0-0 vRRO, R07)

Anderson (23-4, 16-2 HCAC, SOS 0.489, 0-1 vRRO, R08#4)

Gustavus Adolphus (18-10, 14-6 MIAC, SOS 0.544, 1-4 vRRO, R09)

SUNY New Paltz (20-7, 12-6 SUNYAC, SOS 0.491, 1-2 vRRO, R03)

Texas-Dallas (18-9, 12-4 ASC, SOS 0.527, 3-5 vRRO, R10)

Farmingdale St (26-2, 15-1 SKY, SOS 0.467, 0-1 vRRO, R03#6)

Wabash (20-8, 13-3 NCAC, SOS 0.522, 0-4 vRRO, R07)

Marymount (19-8, 10-2 AEC, SOS 0.511, 0-3 vRRO, R05)

Worcester St (18-9, 10-2 MASCAC, SOS 0.522, 1-4 vRRO, R01)

Berry (19-9, 13-1 SAA, SOS 0.506, 0-6 vRRO, R06)

Babson (15-13, 8-8 NEWMAC, SOS 0.550, 4-6 vRRO, R02)

Centenary LA (14-10, 9-7 SCAC, SOS 0.507, 2-3 vRRO, R10)

Fontbonne (16-5, 13-3 SLIAC, SOS 0.458, 0-1 vRRO, R08)

Mary Baldwin (17-10, 11-3 USAC, SOS 0.493, 0-1 vRRO, R06)

Baruch (19-7, 13-1 CUNYAC, SOS 0.475, 0-5 vRRO, R04)

La Roche (15-10, 12-4 AMCC, SOS 0.485, 0-3 vRRO, R07)

Husson (21-5, 10-2 NAC, SOS 0.414, 0-0 vRRO, R01)

Roger Williams (12-14, 8-8 CCC, SOS 0.538, 2-5 vRRO, R02)


Top Pool-C-if-needed teams
* Percentage is Pool C chance if no Pool A/B berth
* Some of the 22 Pool C berths will go to current Pool A teams who lose in conference tournaments.
* After Pool A/B chance is projected resume (WP / SOS / vRRO) if no Pool A/B berth,
or (during conf. tourney) Pool C chance by round reached
* Current Pool A/B favorites are in blue text.

Locks & near-locks

100% (C#1) Randolph-Macon (23-4, 15-1 ODAC, WP 0.852, SOS 0.618, 5-3 vRRO, R06#2) 0% A

100% (C#2) Widener (23-4, 12-2 MACC, WP 0.852, SOS 0.605, 6-3 vRRO, R05#1) 0% A

100% (C#3) NYU (20-5, 10-4 UAA, WP 0.800, SOS 0.581, 10-5 vRRO, R04#1) 0% A

100% (C#4) Nebraska Wesleyan (23-4, 13-3 ARC, WP 0.852, SOS 0.547, 4-4 vRRO, R09#2) 0% A

100% (C#5) Cal Lutheran (23-4, 15-1 SCIAC, WP 0.852, SOS 0.546, 5-4 vRRO, R10#1) 0% A

100% (C#6) Oswego St (25-2, 18-0 SUNYAC, WP 0.926, SOS 0.538, 4-1 vRRO, R03#1) 0% A

99% (C#7) Trine (23-4, 12-2 MIAA, WP 0.852, SOS 0.553, 5-3 vRRO, R07#3) 0% A

99% (C#8) Guilford (22-4, 13-3 ODAC, WP 0.846, SOS 0.555, 5-3 vRRO, R06#3) 0% A

99% (C#9) Trinity TX (23-3, 14-2 SCAC, WP 0.885, SOS 0.543, 6-2 vRRO, R10#2) 0% A

99% (C#10) Calvin (22-4, 12-2 MIAA, WP 0.846, SOS 0.555, 3-4 vRRO, R07#4) 0% A

99% (C#11) Coe (21-5, 13-3 ARC, WP 0.808, SOS 0.556, 4-3 vRRO, R09#3) 0% A

99% (C#12) Wash U (18-7, 8-6 UAA, WP 0.720, SOS 0.600, 8-7 vRRO, R08#1) 0% A

99% (C#13) Hood (19-6, 11-3 MACC, WP 0.760, SOS 0.573, 4-4 vRRO, R05#2) 0% A

99% (C#14) VA Wesleyan (18-8, 9-7 ODAC, WP 0.692, SOS 0.605, 5-5 vRRO, R06#4) 0% A

99% (C#15) Rowan (19-7, 13-5 NJAC, WP 0.731, SOS 0.594, 5-6 vRRO, R04#2) 0% A

99% (C#16) Tufts (19-7, 5-5 NESCAC, WP 0.731, SOS 0.578, 5-5 vRRO, R01#2) 0% A

99% (C#17) Dubuque (21-6, 11-5 ARC, WP 0.778, SOS 0.566, 3-5 vRRO, R09#4) 0% A

99% (C#18) DeSales (24-3, 14-0 MACF, WP 0.889, SOS 0.538, 3-3 vRRO, R04#3) 0% A

99% (C#19) Williams (21-6, 9-1 NESCAC, WP 0.778, SOS 0.554, 5-4 vRRO, R01#3) 0% A


Bubble-in

65% (C#20) Carnegie Mellon (16-9, 8-6 UAA, WP 0.640, SOS 0.601, 6-6 vRRO, R07#5) 0% A, proj. 7-6 vRRO

50% (C#21) Mt Union (20-7, 12-6 OAC, WP 0.741, SOS 0.566, 1-3 vRRO, R07#7) 0% A, proj. 1-3 vRRO

48% (C#22) St Thomas TX (19-6, 12-4 SCAC, WP 0.760, SOS 0.523, 4-0 vRRO, R10#3) 0% A, proj. 5-0 vRRO


Bubble-out

30% (C#23) Nichols (20-4, 15-1 CCC, WP 0.833, SOS 0.532, 1-2 vRRO, R02#2) 0% A, proj. 1-2 vRRO

24% (C#24) Albertus Magnus (21-5, 13-1 GNAC, WP 0.808, SOS 0.529, 2-3 vRRO, R01#5) 0% A, proj. 2-3 vRRO


Fringe contenders

19% (C#25) W&L (18-10, 10-6 ODAC, WP 0.643, SOS 0.589, 3-8 vRRO, R06) 0% A, proj. 4-8 vRRO

14% (C#26) Illinois Wesleyan (19-8, 14-2 CCIW, WP 0.704, SOS 0.546, 3-4 vRRO, R08#2) 0% A, proj. 5-4 vRRO

12% (C#27) Clark (20-7, 13-3 NEWMAC, WP 0.741, SOS 0.541, 2-3 vRRO, R02#3) 0% A, proj. 2-3 vRRO

8% (C#28) St Johns (20-6, 18-2 MIAC, WP 0.769, SOS 0.527, 2-2 vRRO, R09#6) 0% A, proj. 2-2 vRRO

8% (C#29) Stockton (17-10, 12-6 NJAC, WP 0.630, SOS 0.576, 5-6 vRRO, R04#4) 0% A, proj. 5-6 vRRO

5% (C#30) Emory (15-10, 6-8 UAA, WP 0.600, SOS 0.594, 6-8 vRRO, R06#6) 0% A, proj. 6-8 vRRO