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Rankings
#28 of 79 in Division 1
#6 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #70 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D1 (+68 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 44-8 A #576 Scott (1-7) D3 R10, pick: W by 42 (97%), perf. rating 121
08/28 W 25-0 H #137 Anthony Wayne (4-4) D2 R6, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 167
09/04 W 32-6 H #205 Euclid (4-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 159
09/11 L 56-7 A Orchard Lake St Mary MI (5-2) D2
09/18 L 45-14 A #8 Toledo Central Catholic (6-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 30 (3%), perf. rating 134
09/25 L 36-3 H Detroit Cath. Cent. MI (7-0) D1
10/02 L 27-6 A Divine Child MI (7-0) D3
10/09 L 27-24 H Warren De La Salle MI (4-3) D2
10/16 A Brother Rice MI (5-2) D2
10/23 H #165 St Francis (Toledo) (1-7) D2 R6, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.14 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#12 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
84% (bubble if 3-7), 9% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.47 (10.98-15.47) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 38%
Lose: 9.08 ( 7.22-11.77) 76% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Grove City (4-4) 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
(31%) 5W: 13.47 (12.21-15.47) 100% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 38%
(63%) 4W: 9.14 ( 8.45-14.19) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Grove City (4-4) 26%
( 6%) 3W: 7.85 ( 7.22- 9.80) 46% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wayne (4-4) 41%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(31%) WW: 13.47 (12.21-15.47) 100% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 38%
( 3%) WL: 12.24 (10.98-14.19) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #9 (#7-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 37%
(59%) LW: 9.08 ( 8.45-11.77) 79% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Grove City (4-4) 26%
( 6%) LL: 7.85 ( 7.22- 9.80) 46% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wayne (4-4) 41%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 145.2, #66, D1 #29), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 24% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 147.3, #66, D1 #29), likely in, 53% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 5 (3-2, 146.2, #75, D1 #33), likely in, 67% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 148.6, #63, D1 #30), likely in, 81% home (maybe if 5-5), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 145.9, #66, D1 #30), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 5-5), 60% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 142.3, #82, D1 #31), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 4-6), 50% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 128.1, #166, D1 #52), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 68% home (maybe if 5-5), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 129.7, #152, D1 #48), 83% (bubble if 3-7), 46% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 132.7