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Rankings
#32 of 104 in Division 2
#9 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #50 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D2 (+170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 64-19 A #576 Waite (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 45 (98%), perf. rating 131
08/29 L 31-15 A Bishop Dwenger IN (3-1) D3
09/05 W 30-24 H #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 147
09/12 W 33-3 H #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 144
09/19 H #145 St Johns Jesuit (2-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 8 (69%)
09/26 A U of Detroit Jesuit MI (0-3) D2
10/03 H Lumen Christi MI (1-2) D6
10/10 H Divine Child MI (3-0) D3
10/17 A #11 Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 A Riverview MI (2-1) D3
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.23 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#9 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.90 ( 7.36-29.43) 95% in, 62% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 10%
Lose: 13.64 ( 5.40-24.41) 70% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), St Johns Jesuit (2-2) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 21.75 (16.64-26.70) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Rhodes (3-1) 15%
(29%) 7W: 18.33 (12.50-25.20) 99% in, 85% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-out), Rhodes (3-1) 11%
(35%) 6W: 15.23 ( 9.71-21.95) 97% in, 40% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 11%
(20%) 5W: 12.39 ( 7.65-18.59) 68% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 17%
( 6%) 4W: 9.60 ( 6.22-14.39) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 24%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWLW: 21.80 (17.48-25.55) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Rhodes (3-1) 16%
( 4%) WWLWLW: 19.99 (15.88-25.20) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Rhodes (3-1) 14%
( 7%) WWWWLL: 18.33 (14.79-21.72) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Rhodes (3-1) 12%
(11%) WWWLLW: 17.08 (12.50-22.03) 99% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 11%
( 5%) WWLLLW: 15.38 (10.33-19.34) 99% in, 45% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), North Ridgeville (3-1) 11%
( 5%) LWWLLW: 14.19 (10.34-17.94) 92% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), St Johns Jesuit (2-2) 16%
( 9%) WWWLLL: 13.67 ( 9.71-18.30) 93% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 14%
( 2%) LWLLLL: 8.97 ( 6.26-12.04) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Fremont Ross (2-2) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 139.0, #112, D2 #32), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 134.7, #133, D2 #35), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 126.2, #173, D2 #41), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 129.0, #158, D2 #35), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 130.5, #149, D2 #35), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 139.2