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Rankings
#34 of 100 in Division 2
#7 of 26 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #32 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D2 (-32 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-0 H #2 Bishop Watterson (6-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 40 (3%), perf. rating 143
08/28 L 25-0 A #66 St Johns Jesuit (3-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 112
09/04 W 33-12 H #364 Napoleon (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 130
09/11 W 34-14 A #309 Liberty-Benton (1-5) D5 R18, pick: W by 10 (72%), perf. rating 139
09/18 W 35-0 A #420 Bowling Green (2-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 28 (96%), perf. rating 145
09/25 L 10-7 H #40 Whitmer (5-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 27 (4%), perf. rating 151
10/02 A #68 Clay (6-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/09 A #532 Sylvania Northview (0-6) D2 R6, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/16 H #26 Perrysburg (6-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 H #98 Findlay (4-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 2 (45%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.88 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#11 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
49% (likely needs 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.76 ( 9.93-23.44) 97% in, 61% home, 8% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Waite (4-2) 19%
Lose: 7.86 ( 5.29-18.30) 37% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 20.97 (19.66-23.44) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 82%
(14%) 6W: 15.42 (14.01-19.71) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Waite (4-2) 28%
(39%) 5W: 10.88 ( 9.52-16.08) 81% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 30%
(44%) 4W: 6.65 ( 5.84-14.02) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lakewood (5-1) 42%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWW: 20.97 (19.66-23.44) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 82%
( 3%) LWWW: 16.33 (14.51-18.30) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Waite (4-2) 28%
(11%) WWLW: 15.37 (14.01-17.95) 100% in, 89% home, proj. #7 (#5-#11), Waite (4-2) 27%
( 2%) LWWL: 12.14 (10.17-14.62) 96% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 24%
( 7%) WWLL: 11.64 (10.33-13.66) 90% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 29%
(30%) LWLW: 10.78 ( 9.52-12.85) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Fremont Ross (3-3) 31%
(44%) LWLL: 6.65 ( 5.84- 9.12) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakewood (5-1) 48%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 135.1, #124, D2 #34), 49% (likely needs 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 5 (3-2, 131.2, #144, D2 #37), 47% (likely needs 5-5), 13% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 132.5, #133, D2 #38), 49% (likely needs 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 128.0, #159, D2 #44), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 122.1, #203, D2 #49), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 135.3, #121, D2 #38), 74% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 134.5, #127, D2 #39), 66% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 26% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 127.4