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Rankings
#44 of 100 in Division 2
#10 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #27 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D2 (-64 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-0 H #2 Bishop Watterson (3-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 40 (3%), perf. rating 137
08/28 L 25-0 A #66 St Johns Jesuit (3-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 111
09/04 W 33-12 H #298 Napoleon (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 138
09/11 A #254 Liberty-Benton (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 10 (72%)
09/18 A #417 Bowling Green (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 H #49 Whitmer (2-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/02 A #90 Clay (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/09 A #562 Sylvania Northview (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/16 H #26 Perrysburg (3-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #70 Findlay (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 15 (16%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.26 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
47% (bubble if 4-6), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.33 ( 3.22-30.81) 59% in, 28% home, 4% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), Lakewood (3-0) 12%
Lose: 5.59 ( 1.11-25.61) 16% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Lakewood (3-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 27.73 (25.31-30.81) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) 7W: 21.88 (18.04-25.87) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 67%
(10%) 6W: 16.84 (13.45-23.00) 99% in, 97% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), Rhodes (1-2) 14%
(24%) 5W: 12.19 ( 8.96-17.75) 93% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Lakewood (3-0) 14%
(39%) 4W: 8.26 ( 5.74-14.17) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Clay (3-0) 18%
(20%) 3W: 5.13 ( 3.22-11.30) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 2%) 2W: 3.32 ( 1.61- 8.42) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 27.73 (25.31-30.81) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWWWWLW: 21.58 (18.04-24.66) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 66%
( 5%) WWLWWLW: 16.68 (13.60-21.58) 100% in, 99% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Rhodes (1-2) 14%
(11%) WWLLWLW: 12.14 ( 8.96-16.49) 93% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 15%
( 9%) WWLWWLL: 11.89 ( 9.67-16.08) 92% in, 27% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lakewood (3-0) 13%
(33%) WWLLWLL: 7.86 ( 5.74-12.71) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Clay (3-0) 20%
(17%) LWLLWLL: 5.13 ( 3.77- 9.28) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakewood (3-0) 27%
( 2%) LLLLWLL: 2.92 ( 1.61- 5.34) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 128.0, #159, D2 #44), 47% (bubble if 4-6), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 122.1, #203, D2 #49), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 135.3, #121, D2 #38), 74% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 134.5, #127, D2 #39), 66% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 26% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 127.4