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Rankings
#89 of 107 in Division 3
#24 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #76 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D3 (-395 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 49-8 A #145 St Johns Jesuit (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 42 (3%), perf. rating 74
08/29 L 55-6 A #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 80
09/04 L 31-6 H #351 East (Columbus) (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 64
09/11 W 12-6 H #432 Start (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 97
09/19 A #638 Woodward (Toledo) (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 H #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/02 H #555 Bowsher (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/10 A #576 Waite (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/17 A #642 Rogers (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/24 A #253 Lima Senior (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
7% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.65 ( 3.40-19.15) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 14%
Lose: 5.70 ( 2.20-13.25) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 14.35 (11.95-15.60) 97% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Holy Name (3-1) 17%
(48%) 5W: 9.70 ( 9.65-13.85) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 16%
(32%) 4W: 7.40 ( 6.75-12.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(13%) 3W: 5.70 ( 3.95- 8.65) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 4.55 ( 2.75- 8.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWWWW: 14.40 (14.35-15.55) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Holy Name (3-1) 18%
(47%) WLWWWL: 9.70 ( 9.65-11.50) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Lexington (3-1) 16%
( 2%) WLWWLL: 8.55 ( 7.45- 9.80) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 50%
(13%) WLWLWL: 7.95 ( 6.75- 9.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Copley (3-1) 33%
( 2%) LLWWWL: 7.95 ( 6.85-10.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Revere (3-0) 100%
(14%) WLLWWL: 7.40 ( 6.75-10.30) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Revere (3-0) 33%
( 7%) WLLLWL: 5.65 ( 4.45- 7.45) out
( 1%) LLLLWL: 3.95 ( 2.75- 5.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 78.8, #507, D3 #89), 7% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 68.7, #574, D3 #96), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 70.8, #564, D3 #99), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 66.2, #582, D3 #99), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 66.3, #578, D3 #98), 7% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 57.9