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Rankings
#4 of 100 in Division 2
#1 of 25 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #1 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #7 in D2 (+465 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 27-9 H #24 Trotwood-Madison (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 191
08/27 W 24-14 H Portage Central MI (1-1) D2
09/04 L 38-25 A #1 Walsh Jesuit (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 180
09/11 A #155 St Francis (Toledo) (1-2) D2 R6, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/18 H #66 St Johns Jesuit (3-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/25 A Lumen Christi MI (2-0) D6
10/03 A Detroit Cath. Cent. MI (2-0) D1
10/09 H Brother Rice MI (2-0) D2
10/16 H Orchard Lake St Mary MI (1-1) D5
10/23 A Warren De La Salle MI (1-0) D2
Regular season projections
6-4 record
22.29 Harbin points (divisor 91)
#4 seed in R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 80% bye (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.46 ( 8.23-36.85) 99% in, 99% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 80%
Lose: 20.51 (10.26-29.98) 99% in, 97% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 59%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 33.09 (29.16-36.85) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(13%) 8W: 29.31 (23.62-35.14) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(29%) 7W: 25.80 (18.90-32.23) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(34%) 6W: 22.29 (15.37-28.10) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 85%
(18%) 5W: 18.81 (13.01-25.46) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 43%
( 4%) 4W: 15.53 (10.60-21.19) 100% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#12), Rhodes (1-2) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 33.09 (29.16-36.85) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 4%) WWLWLWW: 25.58 (21.46-29.81) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) WWLLWWW: 25.36 (20.36-28.99) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) WWWLLWW: 23.95 (18.90-28.57) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
( 4%) WWLWLWL: 22.56 (16.68-26.68) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 89%
( 5%) WWLLLWW: 20.86 (15.37-26.03) 100% home, 76% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 76%
( 5%) WWLLLWL: 17.74 (13.39-22.46) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 28%
( 4%) WWLLLLL: 15.75 (11.41-20.86) 100% in, 95% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Rhodes (1-2) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 181.3, #6, D2 #4), likely in and likely home, 80% bye (maybe if 5-5), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 178.3, #10, D2 #7), likely in and likely home, 84% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 177.1, #7, D2 #6), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 4-6), 65% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 176.1, #13, D2 #8), 96% (bubble if 3-7), 82% home (maybe if 4-6), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 6-4
Last season 177.7