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Rankings
#77 of 107 in Division 7
#19 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #80 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #92 in D7 (-622 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 36-13 A #640 Frontier (1-3) D7 R27, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 20
08/29 W 22-20 A #599 Shenandoah (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 32 (5%), perf. rating 66
09/05 L 28-21 H #532 East Palestine (4-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 62
09/13 L 22-13 A #612 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 46
09/19 A Magnolia WV (0-2) D6
09/26 H #610 Conotton Valley (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/03 H Valley (Pine Grove) WV (0-2) D7
10/11 H Oak Glen WV (3-0) D5
10/17 A #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 H Cameron WV (2-0) D7
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.79 Harbin points (divisor 92)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.41 ( 1.23-14.93) 18% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 12%
Lose: 4.20 ( 0.83-14.75) 10% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Trimble (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 10.86 ( 7.63-14.75) 95% in, 50% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
( 9%) 5W: 8.69 ( 4.95-13.31) 67% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 13%
(23%) 4W: 6.66 ( 3.13-11.39) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 14%
(33%) 3W: 4.79 ( 1.58- 9.90) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 17%
(26%) 2W: 3.09 ( 1.18- 7.21) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 8%) 1W: 1.60 ( 0.83- 3.23) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWWLL: 7.42 ( 4.97- 9.97) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miller (3-1) 19%
( 3%) WLWLLW: 5.85 ( 3.84- 8.29) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Conotton Valley (2-2) 17%
( 3%) WLWLWL: 5.14 ( 3.13- 7.59) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) 33%
( 3%) WLLLLW: 5.12 ( 3.16- 6.80) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Conotton Valley (2-2) 20%
( 8%) WLWLLL: 3.65 ( 1.58- 6.04) out
( 8%) WLLLLL: 2.87 ( 1.23- 5.37) out
( 8%) LLWLLL: 2.38 ( 1.18- 4.34) out
( 8%) LLLLLL: 1.60 ( 0.83- 3.23) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 46.1, #651, D7 #77), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 42.9, #655, D7 #80), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 36.2, #672, D7 #84), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 23.3, #693, D7 #97), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 31.7, #686, D7 #93), 28% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 31.5