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Rankings
#67 of 107 in Division 6
#19 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #87 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D6 (-130 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 46-0 H #687 Bishop Rosecrans (0-4) D7 R27, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 82
08/28 W 49-18 A #666 Bridgeport (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 37 (97%), perf. rating 81
09/04 L 35-0 A #354 Waterford (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 29 (5%), perf. rating 51
09/11 W 44-6 A #646 Buckeye Trail (0-4) D6 R23, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 102
09/18 H #624 Trimble (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/25 A #442 Shadyside (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/02 H #385 Monroe Central (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/09 A #474 River (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/16 H #577 Frontier (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/23 H #544 Caldwell (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 7-3), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.20 ( 3.25-20.00) 36% in, 15% home, 4% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 12%
Lose: 6.00 ( 2.20-17.95) 8% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), West Jefferson (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 9W: 17.60 (15.20-20.00) 100% in, 99% home, 77% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 77%
(11%) 8W: 14.70 (11.55-18.35) 100% in, 78% home, 9% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Elgin (3-1) 10%
(22%) 7W: 11.70 ( 8.30-16.10) 76% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Elgin (3-1) 13%
(30%) 6W: 8.80 ( 6.25-12.80) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Elgin (3-1) 13%
(22%) 5W: 6.95 ( 4.40-10.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(10%) 4W: 5.00 ( 3.25- 8.25) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 3.30 ( 2.20- 4.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWW: 17.60 (15.20-20.00) 100% in, 99% home, 77% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 77%
( 5%) WWLWWW: 15.10 (12.80-18.35) 100% in, 83% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), bye 11%
(11%) WLLWWW: 12.00 ( 9.50-14.85) 85% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Elgin (3-1) 12%
( 5%) WWLLWW: 11.45 ( 9.25-14.10) 58% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Waterford (3-1) 14%
(20%) WLLLWW: 8.45 ( 6.25-11.70) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Elgin (3-1) 16%
(13%) WLLLWL: 7.25 ( 5.10- 9.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Waterford (3-1) 100%
( 8%) WLLLLL: 5.00 ( 3.25- 6.90) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 3.30 ( 2.20- 4.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 77.7, #506, D6 #67), 34% (bubble if 7-3), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 72.2, #549, D6 #75), 35% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 76.5, #518, D6 #70), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 78.9, #500, D6 #65), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 69.2, #559, D6 #76), 44% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 74.4