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Rankings
#82 of 107 in Division 6
#23 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #83 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D6 (-520 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-14 A #335 Edison (Richmond) (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 31 (8%), perf. rating 75
08/29 L 22-20 H #651 Bridgeport (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 41
09/05 L 49-0 H #364 Waterford (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 41 (1%), perf. rating 36
09/12 W 28-8 H #635 Buckeye Trail (0-4) D6 R23, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 82
09/19 A #478 Trimble (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/26 H #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/03 A #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/10 H #584 River (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/17 A #640 Frontier (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/24 A #415 Caldwell (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.10 ( 3.20-14.70) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 3.95 ( 0.40-11.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 10.55 ( 8.55-13.15) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(13%) 5W: 8.10 ( 6.00-10.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(24%) 4W: 6.30 ( 3.60- 9.90) out, proj. out
(26%) 3W: 3.95 ( 1.85- 7.35) out, proj. out
(22%) 2W: 2.20 ( 1.10- 5.00) out, proj. out
(11%) 1W: 0.75 ( 0.40- 2.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWL: 10.90 ( 9.45-12.80) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Centerburg (3-1) 23%
( 9%) LWWWWL: 7.80 ( 6.00- 9.65) out
(15%) LWLWWL: 6.30 ( 4.85- 8.45) out
( 5%) LWLWLL: 4.85 ( 3.80- 7.10) out
(14%) LWLLWL: 3.60 ( 2.15- 5.45) out
( 7%) LLLLWL: 2.20 ( 1.10- 3.65) out
(11%) LWLLLL: 2.15 ( 1.45- 3.95) out
(11%) LLLLLL: 0.75 ( 0.40- 2.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 60.9, #599, D6 #82), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 49.4, #640, D6 #89), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 47.8, #647, D6 #91), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 62.3, #596, D6 #83), 12% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 60.4, #605, D6 #86), 14% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 55.7