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Rankings
#73 of 107 in Division 7
#16 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #93 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #90 in D7 (-607 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 36-13 H #651 Bridgeport (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 78
08/29 L 20-14 H #587 Miller (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 53
09/05 L 42-20 A Clay-Batelle WV (2-1) D7
09/12 L 13-6 A #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 7 (66%), perf. rating 45
09/19 A Valley (Pine Grove) WV (0-2) D7
09/26 H St Marys WV (1-2) D7
10/03 A #610 Conotton Valley (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/10 H Magnolia WV (0-2) D6
10/17 H #599 Shenandoah (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/24 H #584 River (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 11 (23%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.35 Harbin points (divisor 91)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
17% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.39 ( 1.52-14.20) 20% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Trimble (3-1) 13%
Lose: 4.45 ( 0.79-13.08) 14% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 10.00 ( 6.87-13.08) 92% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Trimble (3-1) 12%
(13%) 5W: 8.12 ( 4.82-11.69) 57% in, 6% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Trimble (3-1) 13%
(26%) 4W: 6.12 ( 3.48-10.47) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 19%
(30%) 3W: 4.35 ( 2.26- 8.63) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(20%) 2W: 2.84 ( 1.52- 5.86) out, proj. out
( 5%) 1W: 1.61 ( 0.79- 3.26) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWW: 10.39 ( 8.08-13.02) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 16%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 5.13 ( 3.48- 7.49) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Trimble (3-1) 50%
( 4%) LWLWLL: 4.34 ( 2.75- 6.43) out
( 6%) WLLWLL: 3.63 ( 2.36- 6.10) out
( 5%) LWLLLL: 3.09 ( 1.52- 4.77) out
( 5%) LLLWLL: 2.89 ( 1.63- 5.42) out
( 5%) WLLLLL: 2.35 ( 1.52- 4.38) out
( 5%) LLLLLL: 1.61 ( 0.79- 3.26) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 52.0, #640, D7 #73), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 56.4, #618, D7 #68), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 52.6, #633, D7 #71), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 45.9, #654, D7 #76), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 37.5, #673, D7 #86), 35% (bubble if 4-6), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 4-6
Last season 43.1