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Rankings
#72 of 107 in Division 7
#15 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #66 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D7 (-382 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-7 H #532 East Palestine (4-0) D7 R25, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 24
08/29 W 36-22 A #621 Southern (Salineville) (1-3) D7 R25, pick: L by 33 (5%), perf. rating 80
09/05 L 20-14 A #623 Buckeye Local (1-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 49
09/12 W 13-6 H #640 Frontier (1-3) D7 R27, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 60
09/20 A #590 Notre Dame (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/26 A #599 Shenandoah (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/03 H #584 River (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/10 H #415 Caldwell (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/17 H #651 Bridgeport (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 A #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.85 ( 4.30-17.30) 64% in, 27% home, 3% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
Lose: 4.70 ( 1.40-13.65) 12% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 12.45 (10.10-15.80) 100% in, 89% home, 9% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 11%
( 7%) 6W: 10.45 ( 7.75-14.45) 97% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
(15%) 5W: 8.45 ( 4.50-12.20) 68% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 14%
(23%) 4W: 6.40 ( 3.65-10.75) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 18%
(31%) 3W: 4.40 ( 2.50- 7.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(20%) 2W: 2.90 ( 1.40- 5.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLWW: 12.35 (10.10-15.80) 100% in, 89% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 12%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 11.15 ( 9.25-14.45) 100% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 11%
( 4%) LWWLWL: 8.30 ( 6.40-11.25) 73% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 16%
( 6%) LLWLWL: 7.00 ( 4.85- 9.10) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 18%
( 5%) WLLLWL: 6.95 ( 4.70- 9.90) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miller (3-1) 15%
( 7%) LWLLWL: 5.55 ( 3.70- 7.50) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Conotton Valley (2-2) 29%
(23%) LLLLWL: 4.35 ( 2.50- 7.40) out
(20%) LLLLLL: 2.90 ( 1.40- 5.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 53.0, #639, D7 #72), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 47.1, #647, D7 #75), 11% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 52.9, #629, D7 #69), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 32.5, #677, D7 #88), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 49.6, #643, D7 #74), 34% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 47.1