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Rankings
#42 of 103 in Division 7
#10 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #85 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D7 (-92 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 46-12 A #679 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 36 (95%), perf. rating 81
08/28 W 62-13 A #687 Bishop Rosecrans (0-4) D7 R27, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 86
09/04 L 58-14 A #408 Newcomerstown (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 35
09/11 L 29-22 A #428 Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 83
09/18 H Madonna WV (1-2) D7
09/25 H #666 Bridgeport (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/02 A #577 Frontier (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/09 H #644 Crestline (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/17 A #593 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/23 H #622 Mathews (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.19 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#7 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.14 ( 2.89-17.85) 94% in, 72% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 15%
Lose: 10.77 ( 2.18-15.61) 88% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
(22%) 8W: 14.07 (10.76-17.85) 100% in, 99% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Lucas (2-2) 16%
(36%) 7W: 12.19 ( 9.18-15.61) 100% in, 94% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Eastern (Beaver) (2-2) 19%
(25%) 6W: 10.01 ( 6.95-13.83) 99% in, 39% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 20%
(12%) 5W: 7.72 ( 5.47-10.73) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 28%
( 4%) 4W: 5.89 ( 4.00- 8.54) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 3W: 4.11 ( 2.89- 5.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(22%) WWWWWW: 14.07 (10.76-17.85) 100% in, 99% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Lucas (2-2) 16%
(18%) LWWWWW: 12.70 (10.31-15.61) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Notre Dame (2-1) 17%
(10%) WWLWWW: 11.79 ( 9.18-14.44) 100% in, 84% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 27%
( 6%) WWWWLW: 11.48 ( 9.18-14.49) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (1-3) 20%
( 8%) LWLWWW: 10.42 ( 8.12-13.07) 100% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 25%
( 5%) LWWWLW: 10.01 ( 8.12-12.61) 100% in, 56% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Eastern (Beaver) (2-2) 21%
( 6%) WWLWLW: 9.14 ( 6.95-11.74) 97% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 20%
( 1%) WWLLLL: 5.48 ( 4.00- 7.37) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (3-1) 60%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 70.7, #554, D7 #42), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 68.4, #565, D7 #50), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 78.5, #506, D7 #36), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 74% home (maybe if 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 70.6, #557, D7 #47), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 69.9, #557, D7 #46), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 68.2