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Rankings
#64 of 107 in Division 7
#13 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #100 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D7 (-295 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 50-22 H #699 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 41 (97%), perf. rating 56
08/28 W 46-6 H #693 Millersport (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 81
09/05 L 52-20 H #442 Newcomerstown (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 12 (25%), perf. rating 37
09/12 L 34-22 H #537 Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 54
09/19 A Brownsville PA (0-3) D5
09/26 A #651 Bridgeport (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/03 H #640 Frontier (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/10 A #666 Crestline (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/17 H #612 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/24 A #679 Mathews (1-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
10.43 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
70% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.83 ( 2.61-14.97) 74% in, 39% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 11%
Lose: 8.77 ( 1.81-13.56) 64% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Trimble (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(22%) 8W: 12.04 ( 9.01-14.97) 99% in, 88% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), River (3-1) 12%
(30%) 7W: 10.43 ( 6.69-13.56) 98% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
(22%) 6W: 8.46 ( 5.68-12.05) 71% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 14%
(14%) 5W: 6.70 ( 4.12- 9.83) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Trimble (3-1) 17%
( 7%) 4W: 5.04 ( 3.37- 8.57) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 3%) 3W: 3.63 ( 2.57- 5.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(22%) WWWWWW: 12.04 ( 9.01-14.97) 99% in, 88% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), River (3-1) 12%
(11%) LWWWWW: 10.93 ( 8.36-13.56) 99% in, 67% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), River (3-1) 13%
( 4%) WWLWWW: 10.61 ( 8.16-13.06) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
( 4%) WLWWWW: 10.58 ( 8.06-13.36) 99% in, 51% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
( 8%) WWWWLW: 9.37 ( 6.69-12.04) 93% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
( 4%) LWWWLW: 8.41 ( 6.49-10.64) 80% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 17%
( 4%) WWLWLW: 7.91 ( 5.94-10.43) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 19%
( 1%) WLLLLL: 3.42 ( 2.61- 4.79) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 58.3, #610, D7 #64), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 59.4, #607, D7 #63), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 64.7, #588, D7 #57), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 39% home (maybe if 8-2), 9% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 66.5, #580, D7 #55), 72% (bubble if 7-3), 38% home (maybe if 8-2), 9% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 70.3, #554, D7 #49), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 62% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Last season 77.2