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Rankings
#65 of 107 in Division 7
#14 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #94 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D7 (-170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 W 26-15 A #677 Wellsville (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 52
08/30 L 20-12 H #537 Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 60
09/06 W 52-45 H #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 9 (69%), perf. rating 56
09/13 W 22-13 H #651 Bridgeport (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 57
09/20 H Wheeling Cent. Cath. WV (2-1) D7
09/27 A #697 Belpre (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/03 A Oak Glen WV (3-0) D5
10/11 A #368 Fairport Harding (3-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/17 A #610 Conotton Valley (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/25 H #645 East Technical (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.30 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#9 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
85% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.70 ( 4.93-21.24) 92% in, 64% home, 20% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 22%
Lose: 9.77 ( 3.47-18.47) 77% in, 39% home, 7% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 15.62 (12.41-18.47) 100% in, 99% home, 78% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 78%
(28%) 7W: 12.92 ( 9.02-17.33) 100% in, 95% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 23%
(35%) 6W: 10.30 ( 6.82-14.72) 97% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
(22%) 5W: 7.95 ( 5.33-11.80) 60% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
( 5%) 4W: 5.71 ( 3.50- 9.18) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWLWW: 15.62 (12.41-18.31) 100% in, 99% home, 78% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 78%
( 7%) LWWLWW: 13.67 (10.27-17.33) 100% in, 99% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 41%
( 9%) WWWLLW: 13.22 (10.12-16.48) 100% in, 95% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 24%
(10%) WWLLWW: 12.12 ( 9.02-15.23) 100% in, 91% home, 9% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), River (3-1) 11%
( 8%) LWLLWW: 10.09 ( 7.72-12.88) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
(11%) WWLLLW: 9.51 ( 6.82-12.30) 93% in, 20% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Conotton Valley (2-2) 14%
( 9%) LWLLLW: 7.68 ( 5.37-10.11) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 16%
( 4%) LWLLLL: 5.45 ( 3.50- 8.40) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Trimble (3-1) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 57.6, #612, D7 #65), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 60.4, #603, D7 #61), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 59.7, #603, D7 #59), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 59.2, #608, D7 #64), 65% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 61.2, #603, D7 #59), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 57.5