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Rankings
#40 of 101 in Division 4
#11 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #80 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D4 (+85 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 19-10 H #363 Carrollton (1-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (45%), perf. rating 111
08/28 W 48-14 A #509 Indian Creek (1-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 131
09/04 A #123 Salem (2-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 24 (9%)
09/11 H #252 Beaver Local (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/18 H #337 St Clairsville (0-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/25 A #618 Cambridge (0-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/02 A #469 Edison (Richmond) (1-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 H Oak Glen WV (1-0) D5
10/16 A Weir WV (0-1) D4
10/23 H Brooke WV (1-0) D3
Regular season projections
7-3 record
4.75 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#11 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (likely needs 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.35 ( 3.16- 7.66) 98% in, 83% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 43%
Lose: 4.74 ( 1.77- 6.77) 78% in, 36% home, 5% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 9W: 6.36 ( 5.90- 6.83) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 55%
(26%) 8W: 5.52 ( 5.04- 6.20) 100% in, 84% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Philo (1-1) 11%
(29%) 7W: 4.75 ( 4.21- 5.52) 98% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Union Local (2-0) 14%
(23%) 6W: 4.03 ( 3.40- 4.68) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Union Local (2-0) 15%
( 8%) 5W: 3.32 ( 2.91- 3.88) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) LWWWWWWW: 6.29 ( 5.90- 6.77) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 53%
( 5%) LWWWWLWW: 5.59 ( 5.22- 5.94) 100% in, 91% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Beaver Local (2-0) 12%
( 5%) LWWWWWWL: 5.49 ( 5.06- 5.87) 100% in, 87% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Philo (1-1) 13%
( 9%) LLWWWWWW: 5.41 ( 5.04- 5.98) 100% in, 71% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Fairfield Union (1-1) 12%
( 4%) LLLWWWWW: 4.73 ( 4.30- 5.06) 98% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 17%
( 6%) LLWWWLWW: 4.72 ( 4.35- 5.08) 95% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Union Local (2-0) 18%
( 6%) LLWWWWWL: 4.61 ( 4.21- 4.98) 95% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 17%
( 3%) LLLWWWWL: 3.90 ( 3.40- 4.33) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Beaver Local (2-0) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 110.1, #292, D4 #40), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 93.2, #413, D4 #65), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 87.6, #452, D4 #71), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 84.2