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Rankings
#67 of 105 in Division 4
#17 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #59 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D4 (-156 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 27-20 H #512 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 87
08/29 W 26-0 A Brooke WV (1-2) D3
09/05 L 38-7 H #217 St Clairsville (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 72
09/12 W 21-12 H #459 East Liverpool (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 6 (64%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #227 Salem (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 26 (5%)
09/26 A #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/03 H #302 Youngstown East (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/10 A #304 Indian Creek (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/17 A #614 Cambridge (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 H #378 Lakeview (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 5 (37%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.17 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
18% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.81 ( 7.75-25.01) 63% in, 32% home, 7% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Circleville (4-0) 12%
Lose: 7.96 ( 3.72-23.60) 16% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Philo (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 19.10 (16.58-23.60) 100% in, 96% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 15%
( 6%) 7W: 15.67 (12.14-20.12) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Philo (3-1) 14%
(15%) 6W: 12.29 ( 9.26-17.44) 56% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), West Holmes (3-1) 13%
(31%) 5W: 9.17 ( 6.09-13.71) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jonathan Alder (4-0) 19%
(43%) 4W: 6.39 ( 4.73-11.39) out, proj. out
( 3%) 3W: 5.84 ( 3.72- 8.62) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 19.35 (16.73-23.60) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 18%
( 4%) LLLWWW: 12.50 (10.53-16.18) 65% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Philo (3-1) 18%
( 5%) LLWLWW: 12.24 ( 9.57-15.58) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Holmes (3-1) 14%
( 5%) LLWLWL: 9.97 ( 7.70-13.11) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 22%
( 4%) LWLLWL: 9.52 ( 6.94-12.10) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jonathan Alder (4-0) 29%
(18%) LLLLWW: 8.66 ( 6.09-11.94) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 21%
(42%) LLLLWL: 6.39 ( 4.73- 9.68) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 5.84 ( 3.72- 8.62) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 91.5, #426, D4 #67), 18% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 88.3, #436, D4 #72), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 93.1, #414, D4 #68), 34% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 91.7, #426, D4 #73), 26% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 102.9, #332, D4 #54), 45% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 100.4