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Rankings
#46 of 105 in Division 4
#11 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #91 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D4 (+80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-6 A #614 Cambridge (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 103
08/29 W 37-19 A #459 East Liverpool (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 113
09/05 W 23-15 H #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 117
09/12 W 46-22 A Weir WV (0-3) D4
09/19 H Brooke WV (1-2) D3
09/26 H #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 A #556 Harrison Central (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/10 H #426 Beaver Local (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/17 H #217 St Clairsville (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 A #335 Edison (Richmond) (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
17.46 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#7 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.50 ( 7.04-27.48) 98% in, 85% home, 31% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 32%
Lose: 17.41 ( 7.40-24.61) 94% in, 70% home, 15% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 10W: 24.28 (20.83-27.48) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 94%
(32%) 9W: 20.64 (17.44-24.61) 100% in, 99% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 39%
(33%) 8W: 17.46 (14.36-21.27) 100% in, 89% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Johnstown (2-2) 13%
(16%) 7W: 14.69 (11.39-17.73) 98% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Circleville (4-0) 12%
( 4%) 6W: 11.97 ( 8.93-15.27) 56% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Philo (3-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWWW: 24.28 (20.83-27.48) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 6%) WWWWWL: 20.79 (18.11-24.04) 100% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 34%
(20%) WWWWLW: 20.43 (17.44-24.20) 100% in, 99% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 34%
( 6%) LWWWLW: 18.18 (15.66-21.12) 100% in, 98% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Johnstown (2-2) 12%
(19%) WWWWLL: 16.99 (14.36-21.01) 100% in, 85% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Johnstown (2-2) 13%
( 6%) LWWWLL: 14.79 (12.16-16.91) 99% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Circleville (4-0) 14%
( 5%) WWWLLL: 14.07 (11.39-16.60) 95% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Philo (3-1) 13%
( 1%) WLWLLL: 11.30 ( 8.93-13.41) 39% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 108.8, #304, D4 #46), 97% (bubble if 6-4), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 108.5, #298, D4 #47), 97% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 8-2), 21% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 112.3, #276, D4 #39), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 97.1, #380, D4 #60), 51% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.3, #396, D4 #65), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 102.8