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Rankings
#82 of 102 in Division 4
#22 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #93 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D4 (-506 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 49-36 H #611 Cambridge (0-7) D4 R15, pick: W by 39 (96%), perf. rating 74
08/28 L 48-14 H #377 East Liverpool (5-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 45
09/04 L 48-7 A #290 Union Local (6-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 51
09/11 W 42-7 H Weir WV (0-6) D4
09/18 W 15-6 A Brooke WV (4-1) D3
09/25 L 37-28 A #482 Bellaire (4-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 8 (31%), perf. rating 72
10/01 W 68-27 H #621 Harrison Central (1-6) D5 R17, pick: W by 8 (70%), perf. rating 113
10/09 A #316 Beaver Local (4-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/16 A #451 St Clairsville (2-5) D4 R15, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 H #474 Edison (Richmond) (2-5) D5 R17, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.96 Harbin points (divisor 96)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.74 ( 8.28-16.00) 43% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 27%
Lose: 8.13 ( 5.23-12.95) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 14.80 (12.82-16.00) 90% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 27%
(16%) 6W: 11.39 ( 9.77-13.89) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(37%) 5W: 8.96 ( 7.09-11.46) out, proj. out
(45%) 4W: 6.79 ( 5.23- 8.93) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWW: 14.80 (12.82-16.00) 90% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 27%
( 1%) WLW: 12.30 (10.61-13.89) 23% in, proj. out (#10-out), Heath (5-2) 32%
(14%) LWW: 11.39 ( 9.77-12.95) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 42%
(11%) LWL: 8.96 ( 7.92-10.52) out
(25%) LLW: 8.80 ( 7.09-10.89) out
(45%) LLL: 6.79 ( 5.23- 8.93) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 78.9, #507, D4 #82), 2% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 70.0, #555, D4 #89), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (3-2, 72.2, #540, D4 #87), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 71.5, #548, D4 #89), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 74.2, #540, D4 #85), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 77.9, #511, D4 #80), 4% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 93.7, #410, D4 #63), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 103.7, #329, D4 #47), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 104.7