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Rankings
#80 of 101 in Division 4
#21 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #84 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D4 (-340 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 49-36 H #618 Cambridge (0-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 39 (96%), perf. rating 73
08/28 L 48-14 H #286 East Liverpool (2-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 58
09/04 A #185 Union Local (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 36 (2%)
09/11 H Weir WV (0-1) D4
09/18 A Brooke WV (1-0) D3
09/25 A #535 Bellaire (1-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/01 H #567 Harrison Central (1-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/09 A #252 Beaver Local (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #337 St Clairsville (0-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/23 H #469 Edison (Richmond) (1-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
2.39 Harbin points (divisor 96)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Lose: 2.33 ( 0.50- 5.25) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Union Local (2-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 4.46 ( 4.19- 4.78) 79% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out)
( 9%) 6W: 3.72 ( 3.38- 4.18) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(21%) 5W: 3.05 ( 2.77- 3.52) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(28%) 4W: 2.39 ( 2.12- 2.90) out, proj. out
(23%) 3W: 1.74 ( 1.53- 2.30) out, proj. out
(13%) 2W: 1.15 ( 0.99- 1.49) out, proj. out
( 3%) 1W: 0.55 ( 0.50- 0.66) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) LWWWWLLW: 3.72 ( 3.39- 4.01) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Johnstown (2-0) 17%
( 4%) LWWWWLLL: 3.13 ( 2.90- 3.38) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Philo (1-1) 100%
( 7%) LWLWWLLW: 2.90 ( 2.77- 3.14) out
( 6%) LWLWWLLL: 2.32 ( 2.13- 2.59) out
( 5%) LLLWWLLW: 2.29 ( 2.12- 2.56) out
( 6%) LWLLWLLL: 1.69 ( 1.54- 1.90) out
( 5%) LWLLLLLL: 1.16 ( 1.05- 1.36) out
( 3%) LLLLLLLL: 0.55 ( 0.50- 0.66) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 77.9, #511, D4 #80), 4% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 93.7, #410, D4 #63), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 103.7, #329, D4 #47), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 104.7