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Rankings
#81 of 107 in Division 3
#17 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #84 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #84 in D3 (-458 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 23-12 H #459 East Liverpool (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 5 (59%), perf. rating 66
08/29 W 16-14 A #335 Edison (Richmond) (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 109
09/05 L 42-18 A #340 Cloverleaf (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating 70
09/12 W 16-10 H #527 Howland (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 10 (72%), perf. rating 83
09/19 H #495 Kenmore-Garfield (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/26 H #433 Marlington (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/03 A #111 Alliance (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/10 H #227 Salem (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/17 A #85 West Branch (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/24 A #461 Minerva (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.22 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.52 ( 3.72-19.61) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 17%
Lose: 6.00 ( 2.67-16.89) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 14.82 (11.89-17.75) 91% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 16%
(24%) 5W: 11.64 ( 8.11-15.18) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Granville (3-1) 18%
(31%) 4W: 9.22 ( 5.74-13.01) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 17%
(27%) 3W: 7.05 ( 3.72-10.39) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(14%) 2W: 4.89 ( 2.67- 7.11) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLWLW: 14.56 (11.89-17.09) 90% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Granville (3-1) 17%
(21%) WWLLLW: 11.54 ( 8.11-14.17) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Hamilton Township (4-0) 18%
( 4%) LWLLLW: 9.37 ( 7.05-11.80) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bloom-Carroll (2-2) 28%
(15%) WLLLLW: 9.37 ( 6.44-12.20) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Buckeye Valley (4-0) 22%
(11%) WWLLLL: 8.87 ( 5.74-11.80) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), Licking Valley (4-0) 20%
( 5%) LLLLLW: 7.26 ( 4.98- 9.38) out
(18%) WLLLLL: 7.05 ( 3.72- 9.48) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Buckeye Valley (4-0) 33%
(14%) LLLLLL: 4.89 ( 2.67- 7.11) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 86.8, #444, D3 #81), 14% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 83.2, #481, D3 #87), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 89.5, #436, D3 #82), 26% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 93.7, #415, D3 #78), 19% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 101.1, #347, D3 #72), 38% (bubble if 7-3), 15% home (maybe if 9-1), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 99.5