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Rankings
#20 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #39 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D5 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 47-27 A #186 Norwayne (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 97
08/29 W 49-13 A Brownsville PA (0-3) D5
09/05 W 38-7 A #426 Beaver Local (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 140
09/12 W 24-14 H Linsly WV (1-2) D7
09/19 H #459 East Liverpool (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/26 A Wheeling Park WV (2-1) D2
10/04 A #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/10 H #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 A #304 Indian Creek (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 H #614 Cambridge (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 43 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
19.32 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#4 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 5-5), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 43% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.18 ( 6.21-27.47) 99% in, 86% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 44%
Lose: 13.37 ( 5.08-22.34) 83% in, 53% home, 14% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(17%) 9W: 23.10 (18.57-27.47) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(38%) 8W: 19.32 (14.73-24.37) 100% in, 99% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 62%
(31%) 7W: 15.39 (11.01-21.63) 100% in, 86% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 13%
(12%) 6W: 11.60 ( 8.27-16.81) 94% in, 21% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
( 2%) 5W: 8.97 ( 6.21-14.17) 44% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(17%) WWWWWW: 23.10 (18.57-27.47) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(18%) WWWLWW: 19.48 (15.05-23.90) 100% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 63%
(15%) WLWWWW: 19.27 (15.99-23.96) 100% in, 99% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 63%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 18.27 (14.73-22.23) 100% in, 99% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 49%
(14%) WLWLWW: 15.70 (12.78-19.97) 100% in, 90% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 13%
(11%) WWWLLW: 14.76 (11.01-19.39) 100% in, 81% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Liberty (3-1) 13%
( 4%) WLWWLW: 14.60 (11.89-18.51) 100% in, 78% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 16%
( 8%) WLWLLW: 11.14 ( 8.27-15.25) 94% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 120.0, #217, D5 #20), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 43% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 120.5, #218, D5 #20), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 87% home (maybe if 6-4), 53% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 113.5, #268, D5 #25), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 121.0, #202, D5 #18), 85% (bubble if 4-6), 65% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 130.6, #147, D5 #13), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 127.8