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Rankings
#5 of 79 in Division 1
#4 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #3 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D1 (+262 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-3 H #48 Middletown (4-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 198
08/28 W 56-20 A Covington Catholic KY (4-3) D2
09/04 W 42-7 H East Central IN (6-1) D2
09/11 W 35-0 H #84 La Salle (3-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 192
09/18 W 31-0 H Louisville St Xavier KY (2-4) D1
09/25 L 31-29 H #14 St Xavier (3-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 19 (89%), perf. rating 170
10/02 L 35-28 A #2 Archbishop Moeller (5-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 12 (22%), perf. rating 179
10/09 A Fort Thomas Highlands KY (6-1) D3
10/16 H Bishop Chatard IN (6-1) D3
10/23 H Mt Zion Prep MD (1-4) D7
Regular season projections
7-3 record
26.84 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#3 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 68% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.76 (21.64-35.79) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
Lose: 22.89 (17.74-29.72) 100% in, 99% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 48%
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 8W: 31.46 (26.87-35.79) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(40%) 7W: 26.84 (22.87-33.74) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 93%
(37%) 6W: 22.68 (18.30-29.27) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 42%
( 9%) 5W: 20.94 (17.74-24.23) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#9), Oak Hills (4-3) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(14%) WWW: 31.46 (26.87-35.79) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 5%) WWL: 30.54 (27.34-33.74) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(18%) WLW: 26.58 (22.92-30.08) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 92%
(17%) LWW: 26.58 (22.87-29.72) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 92%
( 7%) LWL: 25.51 (22.21-29.27) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 78%
( 7%) WLL: 25.45 (21.64-29.27) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 79%
(23%) LLW: 21.75 (18.30-25.25) 100% in, 99% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), Oak Hills (4-3) 25%
( 9%) LLL: 20.94 (17.74-24.23) 100% in, 99% home, 12% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#9), Oak Hills (4-3) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 178.6, #9, D1 #5), appears locked in and likely home, 68% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 6 (5-1, 180.7, #10, D1 #5), appears locked in and likely home, 79% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 5 (5-0, 187.8, #3, D1 #1), appears locked in and home, 97% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 4 (4-0, 185.6, #4, D1 #1), appears locked in and likely home, 92% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 179.8, #9, D1 #3), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 4-6), 76% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 179.4, #8, D1 #3), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 5-5), 55% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 180.1, #5, D1 #1), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 5-5), 42% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 171.5, #16, D1 #5), 91% (bubble if 3-7), 65% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 5-5
Last season 173.4