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Rankings
#5 of 80 in Division 1
#3 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #1 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #33 Middletown (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 16 (77%)
08/28 A Covington Catholic KY (0-0) D2
09/04 H East Central IN (0-0) D2
09/11 H #36 La Salle (0-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 17 (84%)
09/18 H Louisville St Xavier KY (0-0) D1
09/25 H #10 St Xavier (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/02 A #7 Archbishop Moeller (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/09 A Fort Thomas Highlands KY (0-0) D2
10/16 H Bishop Chatard IN (0-0) D4
10/23 H Mt Zion Prep MD (0-0) D7
Regular season projections
5-5 record
17.29 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#6 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 3-7), 65% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.09 ( 1.31-42.39) 97% in, 75% home, 27% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 28%
Lose: 12.41 ( 0.00-34.89) 73% in, 29% home, 3% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), St Xavier (0-0) 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 31.68 (22.85-42.39) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 7%) 8W: 28.06 (18.32-38.22) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 85%
(15%) 7W: 24.51 (15.73-34.10) 100% in, 99% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 54%
(22%) 6W: 21.05 (11.41-30.38) 100% in, 93% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 20%
(23%) 5W: 17.29 ( 8.87-27.74) 99% in, 68% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Lebanon (0-0) 9%
(16%) 4W: 13.63 ( 6.38-22.04) 94% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Lebanon (0-0) 8%
(10%) 3W: 10.06 ( 3.34-16.49) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 10%
( 4%) 2W: 6.51 ( 1.86-11.51) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 12%
( 1%) 1W: 3.10 ( 0.60- 6.62) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Lebanon (0-0) 6%
Hamilton (0-0) 5%
Middletown (0-0) 5%
Lakota East (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 13%
St Xavier (0-0) 13%
Winton Woods (0-0) 12%
Lakota West (0-0) 10%
Princeton (0-0) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 171.6, #16, D1 #5), 91% (bubble if 3-7), 65% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 5-5
Last season 173.4