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Rankings
#7 of 72 in Division 1
#4 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #2 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D1 (+785 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-0 H Lanham Mt Zion Prep MD (0-4) D7
08/29 W 28-20 H Covington Catholic KY (2-2) D2
09/05 W 21-7 A #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 172
09/12 W 16-8 A #40 La Salle (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 171
09/19 A Louisville St Xavier KY (3-0) D1
09/26 A #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 H #1 Archbishop Moeller (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/10 H Fort Thomas Highlands KY (3-1) D2
10/17 A Bishop Chatard IN (3-1) D3
10/24 H Warren De La Salle MI (1-2) D2
Regular season projections
7-3 record
25.53 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#4 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 55% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.77 (14.79-45.54) 100% in, 99% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 72%
Lose: 22.71 (10.26-38.26) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 34.77 (28.77-40.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(24%) 8W: 30.11 (24.29-36.74) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(35%) 7W: 25.53 (18.34-32.62) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 62%
(24%) 6W: 21.10 (14.11-27.48) 100% in, 99% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 18%
( 8%) 5W: 17.19 (11.01-22.39) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 23%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWLWWW: 34.69 (28.77-40.15) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(10%) WLLWWW: 29.63 (24.50-34.86) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
( 6%) WLLWLW: 25.58 (20.33-30.17) 100% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 61%
( 6%) WLLLWW: 25.17 (18.34-30.22) 100% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 51%
( 7%) LLLWWW: 24.51 (19.41-29.15) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 38%
( 5%) LLLWLW: 20.44 (14.11-26.36) 100% in, 99% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 20%
( 5%) LLLLWW: 20.11 (15.95-25.24) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 20%
( 3%) LLLLLW: 15.81 (11.01-19.69) 100% in, 96% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 170.2, #16, D1 #7), appears locked in and likely home, 55% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 175.6, #12, D1 #6), appears locked in, 98% home (maybe if 4-6), 61% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 167.1, #23, D1 #9), 98% (likely needs 3-7), 79% home (maybe if 4-6), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 167.1, #23, D1 #9), 97% (likely in at 3-7 or better), 70% home (maybe if 5-5), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 167.1, #19, D1 #8), 94% (bubble if 2-8), 60% home (maybe if 4-6), 13% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Last season 167.8