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Rankings
#23 of 72 in Division 1
#6 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #21 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D1 (+142 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-7 A #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 168
08/29 W 38-0 H #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 29 (93%), perf. rating 181
09/05 L 21-7 H #16 Elder (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 147
09/12 L 48-23 A #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 125
09/19 A #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/26 H #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 8 (31%)
10/03 A #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/10 H #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/17 A #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 H #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 4-6), 58% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.95 ( 4.95-26.80) 91% in, 58% home, 20% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 22%
Lose: 12.48 ( 5.80-23.45) 72% in, 28% home, 4% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 8W: 22.55 (19.35-26.80) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 83%
(24%) 7W: 19.10 (14.95-23.60) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 31%
(25%) 6W: 15.90 (12.40-20.60) 99% in, 68% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 12%
(22%) 5W: 12.85 ( 9.30-19.15) 93% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
(12%) 4W: 10.35 ( 6.75-14.85) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 12%
( 3%) 3W: 8.55 ( 4.95-11.05) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 22.55 (19.35-26.80) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 83%
( 5%) WWWWLW: 19.75 (15.55-23.60) 100% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 46%
(13%) WLWWWW: 18.65 (14.95-23.00) 100% in, 98% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 24%
( 7%) WLWWLW: 16.10 (13.40-20.55) 99% in, 77% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 12%
( 8%) WLWLWW: 15.35 (12.50-19.70) 99% in, 57% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
(12%) WLWLLW: 12.80 ( 9.80-16.70) 91% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
( 7%) WLLLLW: 10.25 ( 6.75-12.95) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Middletown (4-0) 12%
( 3%) WLLLLL: 8.45 ( 4.95-10.95) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 149.4, #59, D1 #23), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 58% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 160.4, #33, D1 #13), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 59% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 161.1, #31, D1 #14), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 85% home (maybe if 6-4), 63% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 156.6, #39, D1 #18), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 49% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 149.3, #60, D1 #27), 72% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 150.9