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Rankings
#13 of 104 in Division 2
#3 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #22 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #18 in D2 (+198 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-0 H #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 37 (96%), perf. rating 168
08/29 W 31-7 A #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 35 (96%), perf. rating 145
09/05 W 24-23 H #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 152
09/12 L 16-8 H #16 Elder (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 156
09/19 H #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 8 (69%)
09/26 A #1 Archbishop Moeller (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/03 H Roncalli IN (2-2) D2
10/10 A #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/17 A #79 Louisville (4-0) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/24 A #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
88% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.40 ( 9.70-32.05) 99% in, 77% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Butler (3-1) 14%
Lose: 11.25 ( 4.45-24.55) 64% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 8W: 24.50 (20.45-30.55) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 66%
(31%) 7W: 20.10 (15.25-25.15) 100% in, 99% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Aiken (3-1) 15%
(36%) 6W: 15.85 (10.60-22.95) 99% in, 51% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Butler (3-1) 19%
(20%) 5W: 11.05 ( 6.85-17.80) 67% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 23%
( 5%) 4W: 6.45 ( 4.45-12.95) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WLWWWW: 24.45 (20.45-30.55) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 66%
(24%) WLWLWW: 19.70 (15.25-25.05) 100% in, 99% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Aiken (3-1) 16%
(16%) WLLLWW: 16.60 (12.95-20.80) 100% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Butler (3-1) 19%
( 8%) WLWLLW: 15.35 (11.60-19.85) 99% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Withrow (4-0) 19%
( 9%) LLWLWW: 14.30 (10.60-18.60) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 25%
( 6%) WLLLLW: 12.25 ( 9.70-16.10) 88% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 28%
( 8%) LLWLLW: 9.95 ( 6.85-13.80) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 26%
( 5%) LLLLLW: 6.40 ( 4.45- 9.55) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 56%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 157.0, #40, D2 #13), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 159.1, #37, D2 #12), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 165.7, #25, D2 #8), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 168.0, #19, D2 #7), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 40% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 165.3, #20, D2 #7), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 5-5), 40% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 168.7