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Rankings
#5 of 80 in Division 1
#3 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #24 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D1 (+800 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 31-24 H #16 Archbishop Moeller (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 12 (28%), perf. rating 182
08/28 W 28-7 A #67 Middletown (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 180
09/04 H #90 Colerain (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 30 (95%)
09/11 H #362 Sycamore (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/18 H #4 Lakota West (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/25 A #48 Lakota East (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/02 H #156 Mason (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/09 A #244 Hamilton (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/16 H #47 Oak Hills (2-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/23 H #108 Fairfield (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
8.23 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 98% home, 84% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.23 ( 4.08- 9.66) 99% in, 99% home, 86% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 86%
Lose: 6.28 ( 3.30- 8.82) 96% in, 78% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 45%
Based on eventual number of wins
(28%) 10W: 9.41 ( 9.16- 9.66) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
(41%) 9W: 8.23 ( 7.92- 8.88) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(21%) 8W: 7.08 ( 6.76- 7.79) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 66%
( 7%) 7W: 6.08 ( 5.72- 6.74) 100% in, 96% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), St Xavier (1-1) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(28%) WWWWWWWW: 9.41 ( 9.16- 9.66) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
( 2%) WWWLWWWW: 8.30 ( 8.11- 8.56) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WWWWWWLW: 8.24 ( 7.93- 8.56) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(35%) WWLWWWWW: 8.18 ( 7.92- 8.55) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 9%) WWLLWWWW: 7.07 ( 6.75- 7.53) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 59%
( 7%) WWLWWWLW: 7.07 ( 6.76- 7.39) 100% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 60%
( 3%) WWLLWWLW: 5.97 ( 5.71- 6.29) 100% in, 91% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), St Xavier (1-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 175.6, #13, D1 #5), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 75% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 172.8, #14, D1 #6), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 89% home (maybe if 6-4), 66% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 165.2, #24, D1 #10), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 69% home (maybe if 6-4), 42% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 165.1