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Region 4 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#10 of 80 in Division 1
#4 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #24 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 H #7 Archbishop Moeller (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 12 (28%)
08/28 A #33 Middletown (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (62%)
09/04 H #258 Colerain (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/11 H #358 Sycamore (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 44 (99%)
09/18 H #25 Lakota West (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 A #46 Lakota East (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/02 H #83 Mason (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 A #73 Hamilton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/16 H #115 Oak Hills (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 H #101 Fairfield (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
20.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 29.15 ( 1.80-39.40) 98% in, 92% home, 74% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 75%
Lose: 18.80 ( 0.00-33.70) 82% in, 59% home, 28% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 34%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 10W: 34.85 (30.55-39.40) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(17%) 9W: 30.50 (25.25-35.55) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(18%) 8W: 25.25 (19.40-30.55) 100% in, 99% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 69%
(17%) 7W: 20.10 (14.90-29.10) 100% in, 96% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 10%
(13%) 6W: 15.60 (11.05-23.85) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
(10%) 5W: 11.70 ( 8.40-20.05) 89% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
( 7%) 4W: 8.40 ( 5.80-15.60) 29% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 11%
( 4%) 3W: 5.20 ( 3.90-12.30) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.95- 6.50) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 3.90) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 5%
Lebanon (0-0) 4%
Springboro (0-0) 3%
Hamilton (0-0) 3%
Most likely second round opponents
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 12%
Elder (0-0) 10%
St Xavier (0-0) 10%
Lakota West (0-0) 10%
Winton Woods (0-0) 9%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 165.2, #24, D1 #10), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 165.1