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Rankings
#4 of 72 in Division 1
#2 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #22 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D1 (+255 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 L 41-20 A #1 Archbishop Moeller (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 166
08/29 W 32-2 A #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 37 (97%), perf. rating 155
09/05 W 47-0 A #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 174
09/12 W 27-10 A #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 196
09/19 H #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/26 A #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/03 H #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 A #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/17 A #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 H #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
31.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 31.15 (14.25-31.15) 100% in, 99% home, 96% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 96%
Lose: 25.30 ( 7.80-27.90) 100% in, 97% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#11), bye 57%
Based on eventual number of wins
(76%) 9W: 31.15 (31.15-31.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(19%) 8W: 26.60 (24.65-29.85) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 4%) 7W: 22.05 (19.45-26.65) 100% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(76%) WWWWWW: 31.15 (31.15-31.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 2%) WWWLWW: 27.95 (26.65-29.25) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 27.25 (25.95-29.20) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 27.25 (26.60-29.85) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 98%
( 4%) WLWWWW: 26.60 (25.95-27.90) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 80%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 25.95 (25.30-27.90) 100% home, 83% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 83%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 25.30 (24.65-27.25) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 80%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 176.1, #12, D1 #4), appears locked in and likely home, 93% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 164.4, #27, D1 #12), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 164.8, #27, D1 #12), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 83% home (maybe if 5-5), 44% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 165.8, #25, D1 #11), 96% (bubble if 3-7), 77% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 168.4, #17, D1 #7), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 77% home (maybe if 5-5), 43% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 167.7