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Rankings
#1 of 79 in Division 1
#1 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #3 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #2 in D1 (+601 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 31-24 A #3 Princeton (8-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 176
08/28 W 45-7 H #145 Groveport Madison (5-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 185
09/04 L 31-14 A Louisville Trinity KY (7-1) D1
09/11 W 42-14 H Christ Presbyterian IN (0-8) D5
09/18 W 30-15 A #11 St Xavier (4-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (44%), perf. rating 201
09/25 W 45-0 A #83 La Salle (3-5) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 206
10/02 W 35-28 H #7 Elder (6-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (78%), perf. rating 189
10/09 W 43-21 A #21 St Ignatius (4-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 16 (85%), perf. rating 203
10/17 H #6 St Edward (7-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/23 H Detroit King MI (6-1) D3
Regular season projections
7-3 record
25.38 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#4 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 71% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.67 (23.78-32.43) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 85%
Lose: 21.38 (18.75-26.98) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), Fairfield (4-4) 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
(38%) 8W: 29.90 (28.10-32.43) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(51%) 7W: 25.38 (22.65-27.91) 100% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 65%
(11%) 6W: 20.51 (18.75-22.83) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #6 (#5-#9), Fairfield (4-4) 33%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(38%) WW: 29.90 (28.10-32.43) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(42%) WL: 25.64 (23.78-27.91) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 72%
( 9%) LW: 24.79 (22.65-26.98) 100% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#5), Fairfield (4-4) 37%
(11%) LL: 20.51 (18.75-22.83) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #6 (#5-#9), Fairfield (4-4) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 187.9, #2, D1 #1), appears locked in, 97% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 190.2, #3, D1 #1), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 53% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 183.7, #5, D1 #2), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 176.4, #14, D1 #6), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 176.0, #14, D1 #6), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 47% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 174.3, #15, D1 #7), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 58% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 171.5, #15, D1 #7), 86% (bubble if 3-7), 54% home (maybe if 5-5), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 179.0, #7, D1 #3), 95% (bubble if 3-7), 81% home (maybe if 4-6), 51% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 7-3
Last season 176.3