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Rankings
#1 of 79 in Division 1
#1 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #2 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D1 (+518 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 31-24 A #4 Princeton (7-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 176
08/28 W 45-7 H #160 Groveport Madison (5-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 183
09/04 L 31-14 A Louisville Trinity KY (6-1) D1
09/11 W 42-14 H Christ Presbyterian IN (0-7) D5
09/18 W 30-15 A #14 St Xavier (3-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (44%), perf. rating 199
09/25 W 45-0 A #84 La Salle (3-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 206
10/02 W 35-28 H #9 Elder (5-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (78%), perf. rating 187
10/09 A #19 St Ignatius (4-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/17 H #5 St Edward (6-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/23 H Detroit King MI (5-1) D3
Regular season projections
7-3 record
25.02 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#5 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.33 (18.13-32.74) 100% in, 99% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 69%
Lose: 20.92 (14.91-28.22) 100% in, 79% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 8W: 29.33 (26.71-32.74) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(47%) 7W: 25.02 (22.50-28.22) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 72%
(21%) 6W: 20.51 (18.13-24.42) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Little Miami (4-3) 17%
( 4%) 5W: 16.51 (14.91-19.08) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Little Miami (4-3) 23%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWW: 29.33 (26.71-32.74) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) LWW: 25.54 (23.58-28.22) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 87%
(32%) WWL: 25.18 (23.06-27.75) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 77%
(12%) WLW: 24.51 (22.50-26.93) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#6), bye 55%
( 4%) LWL: 21.38 (19.47-24.42) 100% home, 5% bye, proj. #5 (#4-#8), Fairfield (3-4) 23%
( 4%) LLW: 20.82 (18.29-23.03) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Oak Hills (4-3) 19%
(14%) WLL: 20.20 (18.13-22.88) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Little Miami (4-3) 21%
( 4%) LLL: 16.51 (14.91-19.08) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Little Miami (4-3) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 187.9, #2, D1 #1), appears locked in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 190.2, #3, D1 #1), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 53% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 183.7, #5, D1 #2), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 176.4, #14, D1 #6), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 176.0, #14, D1 #6), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 47% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 174.3, #15, D1 #7), 87% (bubble if 3-7), 58% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 171.5, #15, D1 #7), 86% (bubble if 3-7), 54% home (maybe if 5-5), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 179.0, #7, D1 #3), 95% (bubble if 3-7), 81% home (maybe if 4-6), 51% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 7-3
Last season 176.3