Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

Follow the Fantastic 50 on Twitter/X for the latest updates.

Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#1 Archbishop Moeller Crusaders (3-1) 195.0

Updated Sat 13-Sep-2025 10:57 PM
Week 4 complete

Region 4 home page
Region 4 projections
Region 4 playoff probabilities
Region 4 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 4 page
Eitel team page
Team history page

Rankings
#1 of 72 in Division 1
#1 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #3 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #1 in D1 (+960 WP+)

Lists this team is on
Fantastic 50 Rankings
Key games this week
Best team performances
Toughest schedules

Schedule and results
08/23 W 41-20 H #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 205
08/30 L 43-42 N Chicago Mt Carmel IL (3-0) D4
09/05 W 24-21 H Louisville Trinity KY (3-1) D1
09/12 W 49-28 A Nashville Christ Presbyterian Academy TN (1-3) D5
09/19 H #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/26 H #40 La Salle (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 A #16 Elder (4-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/10 H #64 St Ignatius (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/18 A #2 St Edward (4-0) D1 R1, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/25 H Muskegon MI (1-2) D2

Regular season projections
8-2 record
33.20 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#1 seed in R4 playoffs

Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 96% bye (maybe if 6-4)

Depending on the next game
Win: 34.02 (18.82-42.77) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#7), bye 99%
Lose: 25.64 (15.16-36.45) 100% in, 99% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 66%

Based on eventual number of wins
(31%) 9W: 37.71 (31.84-42.77) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(42%) 8W: 33.20 (26.39-39.74) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(21%) 7W: 29.09 (22.96-35.54) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 5%) 6W: 24.17 (18.34-30.81) 100% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 51%

Under certain win/loss scenarios
(31%) WWWWWW: 37.71 (31.84-42.77) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(15%) WWWWWL: 35.16 (29.95-39.74) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 32.89 (28.56-36.24) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(23%) WWWWLW: 32.22 (26.39-37.06) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) WWWWLL: 29.76 (24.76-33.06) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WWLWLW: 27.45 (22.96-30.69) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 2%) LWWWLW: 26.31 (23.06-30.44) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 86%
( 2%) LWWWLL: 23.86 (20.56-26.79) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 49%

Most likely first-round opponents
Oak Hills (1-3) 1%
Western Hills (1-3) 1%
West Clermont (1-3) 1%
Hamilton (1-3) 1%

Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 195.0, #1, D1 #1), appears locked in and likely home, 96% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 190.4, #2, D1 #2), appears locked in and likely home, 78% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 190.6, #1, D1 #1), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 3-7), 69% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 191.0, #1, D1 #1), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 4-6), 72% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 188.4, #1, D1 #1), 98% (bubble if 2-8), 89% home (maybe if 4-6), 57% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 189.4