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Rankings
#34 of 72 in Division 1
#10 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #15 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D1 (-80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-24 A #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (15%), perf. rating 152
08/29 L 19-2 A #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 127
09/05 W 38-0 H #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 162
09/12 W 34-9 H #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 28 (95%), perf. rating 144
09/19 H #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/26 A #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/03 H #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/10 A #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/17 H #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 A #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 4 (60%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
70% (bubble if 3-7), 19% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.20 ( 5.85-28.55) 98% in, 62% home, 6% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Mason (2-2) 18%
Lose: 7.10 ( 1.95-23.35) 68% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Lakota East (3-1) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 20.75 (19.45-24.70) 100% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 19%
( 9%) 6W: 16.20 (14.90-21.45) 100% in, 97% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Mason (2-2) 22%
(19%) 5W: 11.65 (11.00-16.90) 100% in, 39% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Mason (2-2) 38%
(25%) 4W: 8.40 ( 7.10-13.00) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 27%
(26%) 3W: 5.15 ( 3.90- 9.10) 56% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 29%
(18%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.95- 4.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWLW: 20.75 (19.45-23.35) 100% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 18%
( 6%) LWWWLW: 15.55 (14.90-18.80) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Lakota East (3-1) 22%
( 9%) LLWWLW: 11.65 (11.00-13.60) 100% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Mason (2-2) 61%
( 9%) LLWLLW: 8.40 ( 7.75-10.35) 98% in, proj. #10 (#9-out), Lakota East (3-1) 29%
( 6%) LLLWLW: 7.10 ( 7.10- 9.70) 99% in, proj. #10 (#9-out), Mason (2-2) 30%
( 6%) LLWLLL: 5.85 ( 5.20- 7.80) 62% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
(12%) LLLLLW: 4.50 ( 4.50- 7.10) 49% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 31%
(18%) LLLLLL: 1.95 ( 1.95- 4.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Elder (4-0) 67%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 141.3, #97, D1 #34), 70% (bubble if 3-7), 19% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 137.5, #115, D1 #37), 59% (bubble if 3-7), 12% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 132.5, #135, D1 #41), 48% (bubble if 3-7), 8% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 137.0, #123, D1 #40), 61% (bubble if 3-7), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 132.7, #139, D1 #45), 49% (bubble if 3-7), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 129.2