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Rankings
#39 of 79 in Division 1
#13 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #18 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D1 (-52 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-25 H #77 Wayne (3-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 157
08/28 L 21-0 H #73 Oak Hills (4-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 111
09/04 L 27-20 H #48 Middletown (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 140
09/11 L 34-28 A #100 Colerain (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 133
09/18 W 42-19 A #345 Sycamore (0-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (95%), perf. rating 140
09/25 L 38-7 A #6 Lakota West (6-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 33 (2%), perf. rating 138
10/02 W 35-31 H #61 Lakota East (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (28%), perf. rating 151
10/09 A #121 Mason (2-5) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 H #299 Hamilton (1-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 A #4 Princeton (7-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 36 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
13.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
41% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.00 ( 9.10-20.80) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 23%
Lose: 10.40 ( 7.15-18.20) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Elder (5-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(53%) 5W: 13.00 (10.40-18.20) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 23%
(44%) 4W: 10.40 ( 8.45-13.00) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Elder (5-2) 25%
( 3%) 3W: 9.10 ( 7.15-11.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(52%) WWL: 13.00 (10.40-15.60) 75% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 23%
( 2%) WLL: 11.70 ( 9.10-13.00) 28% in, proj. out (#11-out), Elder (5-2) 24%
(42%) LWL: 10.40 ( 8.45-12.35) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Elder (5-2) 25%
( 3%) LLL: 9.10 ( 7.15-11.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 138.8, #101, D1 #39), 41% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 6 (2-4, 138.0, #107, D1 #37), 17% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (2-3, 138.3, #100, D1 #35), 19% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (1-3, 137.4, #107, D1 #38), 19% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 135.7, #116, D1 #38), 19% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 136.9, #108, D1 #37), 34% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 148.3, #62, D1 #25), 76% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 138.8, #101, D1 #38), 50% (bubble if 4-6), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 142.6