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Rankings
#7 of 80 in Division 1
#5 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #3 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #10 in D1 (+317 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-7 A #8 Lakota West (4-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 163
08/28 W 35-7 A #65 Wayne (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 192
09/04 L 30-21 H Indy Cathedral IN (2-2) D2
09/11 W 31-0 A #116 Westerville North (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 30 (96%), perf. rating 183
09/18 H #14 Archbishop Moeller (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 A #4 Elder (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/02 A Louisville Trinity KY (3-1) D1
10/09 A #59 La Salle (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 H #7 St Ignatius (2-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
4-5 record
17.16 Harbin points (divisor 89)
#7 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 2-7), 69% home (maybe if 4-5), 19% bye (maybe if 6-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.98 ( 7.67-37.08) 99% in, 88% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 31%
Lose: 16.32 ( 4.37-32.37) 91% in, 46% home, 4% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Lebanon (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 31.85 (25.06-37.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(17%) 6W: 26.47 (19.84-32.37) 100% in, 99% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 73%
(27%) 5W: 21.48 (14.85-27.09) 100% in, 99% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Oak Hills (2-2) 15%
(29%) 4W: 17.16 (10.47-23.00) 99% in, 66% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Lebanon (3-1) 17%
(18%) 3W: 12.90 ( 7.67-17.50) 89% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Springboro (2-2) 16%
( 3%) 2W: 9.45 ( 4.37-11.67) 30% in, proj. out (#10-out), Springboro (2-2) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWW: 31.85 (25.06-37.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 7%) WWLWW: 26.47 (21.08-31.19) 100% home, 75% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 75%
( 7%) WLWWL: 21.36 (14.85-26.36) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Oak Hills (2-2) 16%
( 9%) WLLWW: 20.97 (16.08-25.97) 100% in, 99% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Little Miami (3-1) 15%
( 9%) LLWWL: 18.00 (12.95-23.00) 100% in, 73% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Lebanon (3-1) 17%
(11%) WLLWL: 16.20 (10.47-21.20) 99% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Oak Hills (2-2) 16%
(13%) LLLWL: 12.84 ( 7.84-17.11) 87% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Springboro (2-2) 16%
( 3%) LLLLL: 9.45 ( 4.37-11.67) 30% in, proj. out (#10-out), Springboro (2-2) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 176.0, #15, D1 #7), 96% (bubble if 2-7), 69% home (maybe if 4-5), 19% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #7 at 4-5
Week 3 (1-2, 172.5, #17, D1 #8), 81% (bubble if 3-7), 39% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 173.6, #17, D1 #9), 90% (bubble if 3-7), 56% home (maybe if 5-5), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 167.4, #24, D1 #11), 82% (bubble if 3-7), 44% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 177.4, #10, D1 #4), 93% (bubble if 3-7), 78% home (maybe if 5-5), 46% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 177.3