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Region 4 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#4 of 80 in Division 1
#2 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #5 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #75 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #25 Lakota West (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 10 (68%)
08/28 A #42 Wayne (0-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 21 (85%)
09/04 H Indy Cathedral IN (0-0) D2
09/11 A #165 Westerville North (0-0) D1 R3, pick: W by 36 (98%)
09/18 H #7 Archbishop Moeller (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/25 A #16 Elder (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/02 A Louisville Trinity KY (0-0) D1
10/09 A #36 La Salle (0-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/16 H #74 St Ignatius (0-0) D1 R1, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/23 H St James Academy VA (0-0) D7
Regular season projections
7-3 record
24.30 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#3 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 3-7), 78% home (maybe if 5-5), 46% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.94 ( 1.98-46.20) 99% in, 91% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 62%
Lose: 15.55 ( 0.00-39.17) 83% in, 49% home, 14% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 34.88 (25.79-46.20) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(12%) 9W: 31.82 (20.81-44.93) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(20%) 8W: 28.27 (16.94-39.28) 100% in, 99% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 87%
(21%) 7W: 24.30 (12.31-34.65) 100% in, 99% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 56%
(16%) 6W: 20.23 ( 9.32-30.33) 99% in, 88% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 18%
(12%) 5W: 16.26 ( 7.84-26.62) 98% in, 56% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Elder (0-0) 9%
( 8%) 4W: 12.55 ( 5.11-22.14) 88% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Elder (0-0) 13%
( 5%) 3W: 9.14 ( 3.69-17.15) 52% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Elder (0-0) 13%
( 2%) 2W: 5.84 ( 1.96-11.91) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 1W: 2.64 ( 0.65- 6.62) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 4%
Lebanon (0-0) 4%
Hamilton (0-0) 3%
Middletown (0-0) 3%
Most likely second round opponents
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 13%
Elder (0-0) 12%
Winton Woods (0-0) 10%
Lakota West (0-0) 10%
Princeton (0-0) 9%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 177.4, #10, D1 #4), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 78% home (maybe if 5-5), 46% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 177.3