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Rankings
#5 of 72 in Division 1
#3 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #5 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D1 (+600 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 14-7 H #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 177
08/29 W 20-7 H #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 164
09/05 W 24-6 A Indy Cathedral IN (2-2) D2
09/12 W 28-0 H #127 Westerville North (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 176
09/19 A #1 Archbishop Moeller (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/26 H #16 Elder (4-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 H Louisville Trinity KY (3-1) D1
10/10 H #40 La Salle (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/17 A #64 St Ignatius (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/24 H Life Christian Acad. VA (0-2) D7
Regular season projections
8-2 record
27.85 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#3 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 78% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 33.94 (19.23-42.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#7), bye 99%
Lose: 27.75 (13.31-38.08) 100% in, 99% home, 77% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 77%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 37.36 (31.63-42.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(29%) 9W: 32.34 (24.45-40.17) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(38%) 8W: 27.85 (21.38-37.05) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
(21%) 7W: 24.09 (16.41-33.66) 100% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 45%
( 8%) 6W: 21.06 (14.18-29.12) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 18%
( 2%) 5W: 17.27 (13.31-23.94) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #6 (#5-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 24%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 37.36 (31.63-42.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(26%) LWWWWW: 32.29 (24.45-38.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) LWWWWL: 31.78 (25.47-37.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) LWWLWW: 27.74 (21.38-31.22) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(12%) LLWWWW: 27.43 (21.48-33.01) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 90%
(16%) LWLWWW: 27.38 (21.75-33.33) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 8%) LLLWWW: 22.76 (17.47-27.36) 100% home, 17% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 17%
( 2%) LLLLWW: 18.02 (14.18-21.34) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 174.3, #13, D1 #5), appears locked in and likely home, 78% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 178.3, #8, D1 #4), appears locked in and likely home, 80% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 177.0, #10, D1 #3), appears locked in and likely home, 76% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 181.0, #5, D1 #3), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 4-6), 69% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 178.1, #7, D1 #4), 96% (bubble if 2-8), 81% home (maybe if 4-6), 48% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #3 at 6-4
Last season 179.9