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Region 19 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#24 of 105 in Division 5
#5 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #35 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #215 Ridgewood (0-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 1 (48%)
08/28 H #298 West Muskingum (0-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 10 (69%)
09/04 A Wheeling Cent. Cath. WV (0-0) D7
09/11 H #361 Waterford (0-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 17 (84%)
09/18 A #441 Grandview Heights (0-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/25 A #373 Caldwell (0-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 14 (81%)
10/02 H #128 Barnesville (0-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/09 H #448 Marietta (0-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 A #486 Warren (0-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 A #528 Liberty Union (0-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.80 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#5 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
79% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.28 ( 2.06-35.11) 96% in, 87% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 65%
Lose: 12.91 ( 0.00-32.03) 64% in, 42% home, 17% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), bye 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 10W: 27.38 (18.69-35.11) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(16%) 9W: 24.40 (16.53-32.89) 100% in, 99% home, 93% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 93%
(18%) 8W: 21.00 (11.43-29.66) 99% in, 99% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 68%
(17%) 7W: 17.80 (10.57-26.53) 99% in, 88% home, 31% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 31%
(14%) 6W: 14.62 ( 6.94-22.35) 94% in, 56% home, 6% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Ridgewood (0-0) 8%
(11%) 5W: 11.44 ( 5.18-19.47) 69% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Ridgewood (0-0) 10%
( 8%) 4W: 8.72 ( 3.37-16.19) 30% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Ridgewood (0-0) 10%
( 6%) 3W: 6.20 ( 2.26-11.86) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 3%) 2W: 3.88 ( 0.95- 8.43) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 1W: 1.76 ( 0.40- 5.00) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Ridgewood (0-0) 5%
Portsmouth (0-0) 4%
Grove City Christian (0-0) 4%
Fairland (0-0) 3%
Most likely second round opponents
Ironton (0-0) 12%
Wheelersburg (0-0) 11%
Portsmouth (0-0) 9%
Columbus Academy (0-0) 9%
Africentric Early Coll. (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 92.0, #428, D5 #59), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 123.9