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Rankings
#87 of 104 in Division 3
#23 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #91 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #83 in D3 (-504 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-0 H #196 Union Local (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 70
08/28 W 28-21 H #467 Morgan (1-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 93
09/04 L 17-6 A #500 Logan (1-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 15 (80%), perf. rating 65
09/11 A #572 Hillsboro (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 10 (72%)
09/18 H #504 Eastern (Reedsville) (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 A #288 Athens (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/02 A John Marshall WV (2-0) D2
10/09 A #489 Edison (Richmond) (1-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/16 H #183 Fort Frye (3-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/23 H #484 Marietta (0-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.70 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
9% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.70 ( 1.56-21.93) 11% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 13%
Lose: 4.28 ( 1.01-20.82) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Jackson (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 15.77 (11.93-20.82) 96% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Jackson (2-1) 15%
( 7%) 6W: 12.04 ( 8.10-18.61) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 13%
(19%) 5W: 8.51 ( 5.08-15.13) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 14%
(23%) 4W: 6.70 ( 2.96-13.41) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 15%
(23%) 3W: 4.89 ( 2.11-12.36) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(18%) 2W: 2.92 ( 1.56- 8.32) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 9%) 1W: 1.86 ( 1.01- 3.43) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWLW: 16.03 (11.93-19.86) 98% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
( 4%) WWLWWLW: 12.04 ( 8.10-16.38) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Tri-Valley (2-1) 15%
(11%) WWLLWLW: 7.60 ( 5.08-11.19) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), East (Columbus) (2-1) 18%
( 4%) WWLLWLL: 6.65 ( 4.53- 9.63) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), East (Columbus) (2-1) 40%
( 6%) WWLLLLW: 5.74 ( 3.87- 8.26) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Jonathan Alder (3-0) 50%
( 6%) WWLLLLL: 4.89 ( 2.97- 7.61) out
( 9%) WLLLLLL: 2.41 ( 1.56- 4.48) out
( 9%) LLLLLLL: 1.86 ( 1.01- 3.43) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 78.7, #507, D3 #87), 9% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 87.7, #443, D3 #77), 26% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 76.0, #520, D3 #90), 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 82.7, #486, D3 #84), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 76.4