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Rankings
#29 of 107 in Division 6
#5 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #72 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D6 (-173 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 29-12 H #398 Amanda-Clearcreek (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 118
08/28 L 16-14 A #442 Newark Catholic (3-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 88
09/04 W 62-28 H #495 Greenon (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 129
09/11 A #573 Cedarville (1-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 32 (97%)
09/18 H #683 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/25 A #534 Northeastern (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/02 H #587 Triad (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/09 A #320 Mechanicsburg (2-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/16 A #410 West Liberty-Salem (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/23 H #517 Fairbanks (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
13.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.25 ( 4.90-21.35) 92% in, 64% home, 18% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 19%
Lose: 10.68 ( 2.55-18.50) 59% in, 22% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Elgin (3-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(36%) 9W: 16.85 (13.45-21.35) 100% in, 99% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 45%
(37%) 8W: 13.80 (10.25-18.70) 99% in, 64% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Colonel Crawford (1-2) 10%
(19%) 7W: 11.30 ( 7.80-16.80) 81% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Elgin (3-0) 12%
( 6%) 6W: 9.60 ( 6.35-13.75) 42% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Elgin (3-0) 15%
( 1%) 5W: 8.22 ( 5.25-12.30) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(36%) WWWWWWW: 16.85 (13.45-21.35) 100% in, 99% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 45%
( 2%) WWWWWWL: 15.05 (12.15-18.70) 99% in, 83% home, 10% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 10%
( 7%) WWWWWLW: 13.80 (10.25-17.80) 99% in, 66% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Colonel Crawford (1-2) 11%
(27%) WWWWLWW: 13.65 (10.60-17.50) 99% in, 61% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Colonel Crawford (1-2) 9%
( 2%) WWWWLWL: 12.22 ( 9.00-15.55) 91% in, 26% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Elgin (3-0) 15%
( 2%) WWLWLWW: 12.20 ( 9.40-15.55) 94% in, 29% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Elgin (3-0) 11%
(12%) WWWWLLW: 10.85 ( 7.80-14.85) 74% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Elgin (3-0) 12%
( 1%) WWLWLLL: 8.50 ( 6.75-10.95) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), Garaway (3-0) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 108.0, #305, D6 #29), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 99.9, #364, D6 #37), 66% (bubble if 7-3), 37% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 112.0, #273, D6 #22), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 8-2), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 104.0, #326, D6 #28), 66% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Last season 112.3