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Rankings
#28 of 107 in Division 6
#6 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #55 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D6 (+228 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 27-20 H #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 55-13 H #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 128
09/05 W 24-21 A #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 91
09/12 W 62-26 H #506 Cedarville (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 130
09/19 A #578 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 H #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/03 A #674 Triad (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/10 H #257 Mechanicsburg (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 H #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/24 A #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
16.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 85% home (maybe if 7-3), 49% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.85 ( 9.55-26.35) 99% in, 86% home, 50% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 50%
Lose: 13.75 ( 8.50-22.60) 77% in, 40% home, 11% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), bye 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 10W: 23.35 (20.35-26.35) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(33%) 9W: 19.55 (16.10-23.60) 100% in, 99% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#10), bye 85%
(37%) 8W: 16.15 (13.10-20.75) 99% in, 86% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 14%
(12%) 7W: 13.90 (10.00-18.30) 96% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 15%
( 2%) 6W: 11.95 ( 9.10-15.35) 65% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 22%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWWW: 23.35 (20.35-26.35) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(10%) WWWLWW: 19.85 (16.70-22.45) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 91%
(22%) WLWWWW: 19.35 (16.10-22.10) 100% in, 99% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#10), bye 82%
( 2%) WLWWLW: 16.90 (13.95-19.75) 100% in, 93% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 23%
(32%) WLWLWW: 16.05 (13.10-18.85) 99% in, 85% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 11%
( 2%) WLWLWL: 14.45 (12.20-16.70) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
( 9%) WLWLLW: 13.70 (10.00-16.10) 95% in, 28% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 15%
( 1%) WLWLLL: 12.00 ( 9.55-13.95) 71% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 109.6, #295, D6 #28), likely in, 85% home (maybe if 7-3), 49% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 105.8, #331, D6 #30), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 108.5, #303, D6 #23), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 7-3), 47% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 95.0, #403, D6 #39), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 89.9, #449, D6 #43), 41% (bubble if 7-3), 22% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 81.0