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Rankings
#83 of 107 in Division 3
#18 of 26 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #81 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #104 in D3 (-927 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-16 H #349 Morgan (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 79
08/29 L 23-21 A John Marshall WV (3-0) D2
09/05 L 33-21 H #250 Athens (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (6%), perf. rating 96
09/12 L 12-0 A #395 Claymont (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 80
09/19 H #328 Whitehall-Yearling (2-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 19 (12%)
09/26 A #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 A Williamstown WV (0-2) D6
10/10 H #192 Fort Frye (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/17 A Point Pleasant WV (0-2) D4
10/24 H #411 Warren (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.26 Harbin points (divisor 93)
out of R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.97 ( 1.62-13.84) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Lose: 1.44 ( 0.00-11.44) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 7.86 ( 4.85-11.94) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(10%) 3W: 5.37 ( 2.63-10.69) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(26%) 2W: 2.88 ( 0.90- 8.43) out, proj. out
(39%) 1W: 1.26 ( 0.40- 4.75) out, proj. out
(22%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWLLW: 5.91 ( 4.30- 7.69) out
( 5%) LLLLWW: 2.77 ( 2.23- 5.46) out
( 5%) LLWLLW: 2.56 ( 1.60- 4.50) out
( 8%) LLWLWL: 2.30 ( 0.90- 4.88) out
( 9%) LLLLLW: 1.73 ( 1.20- 3.45) out
(13%) LLLLWL: 1.04 ( 0.50- 3.19) out
(13%) LLWLLL: 0.83 ( 0.40- 2.12) out
(22%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 84.7, #458, D3 #83), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 86.6, #450, D3 #82), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 82.8, #485, D3 #88), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 80.2, #513, D3 #88), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 87.4, #472, D3 #85), 27% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. out at 5-5
Last season 86.4