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Rankings
#8 of 106 in Division 5
#4 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #62 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D5 (+280 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-7 H #192 Fort Frye (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 164
08/29 W 51-21 H #414 Meadowbrook (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 136
09/05 W 40-0 A #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 151
09/12 W 56-0 H #623 Buckeye Local (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 117
09/19 A #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 43 (99%)
09/26 H Charleston George Washington WV (2-0) D2
10/02 A Wheeling Cent. Cath. WV (2-1) D7
10/10 H Linsly WV (1-2) D7
10/17 N Coal City Independence WV (3-0) D4
10/24 A #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
24.27 Harbin points (divisor 91)
#2 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 77% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.14 (10.67-32.37) 99% in, 99% home, 77% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 77%
Lose: 20.81 (12.07-29.49) 100% in, 93% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#12), bye 59%
Based on eventual number of wins
(17%) 10W: 27.75 (22.04-32.37) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(37%) 9W: 24.27 (18.79-29.76) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(32%) 8W: 21.27 (15.61-27.49) 100% in, 99% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#11), bye 68%
(12%) 7W: 18.17 (12.08-23.42) 100% in, 96% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 22%
( 2%) 6W: 15.40 (11.35-19.22) 98% in, 64% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Zane Trace (3-1) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(17%) WWWWWW: 27.75 (22.04-32.37) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 5%) WWWLWW: 26.25 (21.08-29.76) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 8%) WWLWWW: 25.64 (19.98-29.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(13%) WWWWLW: 23.74 (18.79-27.80) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(10%) WLWWWW: 23.31 (18.96-27.26) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 96%
( 7%) WWLWLW: 21.68 (16.90-25.14) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 78%
( 8%) WLWWLW: 19.45 (15.61-22.92) 100% in, 99% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 37%
( 1%) WLLLLW: 15.68 (14.08-18.26) 100% in, 79% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Zane Trace (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 136.7, #124, D5 #8), likely in and likely home, 77% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 140.6, #98, D5 #8), likely in and likely home, 78% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 136.6, #119, D5 #10), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 7-3), 57% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 130.6, #146, D5 #12), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 80% home (maybe if 7-3), 45% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 128.9, #160, D5 #16), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 7-3), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 129.8