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Rankings
#42 of 107 in Division 6
#11 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #71 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D6 (-258 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 38-0 H #635 Buckeye Trail (0-4) D6 R23, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 108
08/29 L 21-6 A #364 Waterford (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 80
09/05 L 43-20 A #359 Tuslaw (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 70
09/12 W 41-0 H #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 11 (74%), perf. rating 130
09/19 H #335 Edison (Richmond) (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 9 (28%)
09/26 A #192 Fort Frye (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/03 A #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/10 A #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/17 A #584 River (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 H #599 Shenandoah (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.68 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
39% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.79 ( 6.00-20.22) 87% in, 22% home, 2% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
Lose: 10.58 ( 2.21-15.38) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 17.14 (14.41-20.22) 100% in, 95% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 32%
(26%) 7W: 13.81 (10.73-16.89) 92% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 15%
(58%) 6W: 10.68 ( 7.35-14.52) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
(12%) 5W: 8.26 ( 6.04-11.34) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 4W: 6.15 ( 4.48- 9.03) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 17.14 (14.41-20.22) 100% in, 95% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 32%
( 2%) LWWWWW: 13.91 (12.04-15.38) 96% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
(24%) WLWWWW: 13.81 (10.73-16.74) 91% in, 18% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 15%
(55%) LLWWWW: 10.63 ( 8.41-13.36) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
( 2%) LLWLWW: 8.82 ( 6.34-11.09) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Centerburg (3-1) 33%
( 3%) LLWWWL: 8.77 ( 6.50-11.34) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Colonel Crawford (4-0) 50%
( 1%) LLLWWW: 8.62 ( 7.56-10.08) out
( 5%) LLWWLW: 7.56 ( 6.04-10.44) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 92.9, #415, D6 #42), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 88.0, #438, D6 #45), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 96.7, #386, D6 #37), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 25% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 104.5, #327, D6 #25), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 65% home (maybe if 7-3), 33% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 88.9, #457, D6 #46), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 87.9