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Rankings
#33 of 106 in Division 5
#10 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #74 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D5 (-116 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-12 H #492 John F Kennedy (Warren) (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 123
08/29 L 25-19 A Wheeling Cent. Cath. WV (2-1) D7
09/05 L 23-15 A #304 Indian Creek (4-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 99
09/12 W 28-3 A #556 Harrison Central (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 110
09/19 H #411 Warren (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 16 (84%)
09/26 H #426 Beaver Local (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 A #614 Cambridge (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 A #623 Buckeye Local (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/17 H #437 Bellaire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 H #124 Barnesville (4-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.48 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#11 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.13 ( 4.45-20.49) 67% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 17%
Lose: 9.44 ( 2.63-16.67) 20% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 16.25 (12.73-20.49) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Harvest Prep (2-2) 16%
(63%) 7W: 12.48 ( 9.32-17.48) 78% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 17%
(23%) 6W: 9.99 ( 7.34-16.12) 26% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 24%
( 7%) 5W: 7.66 ( 5.00-11.79) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 2%) 4W: 5.40 ( 3.38- 9.66) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 16.25 (12.73-20.49) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Harvest Prep (2-2) 16%
(61%) WWWWWL: 12.48 ( 9.32-17.48) 78% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 17%
( 8%) LWWWWL: 10.30 ( 8.21-13.47) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
( 6%) WWWWLL: 9.79 ( 7.54-12.85) 25% in, proj. out (#9-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 21%
( 7%) WLWWWL: 9.48 ( 7.34-13.01) 16% in, proj. out (#10-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 30%
( 2%) LWWWLL: 7.91 ( 5.92-10.62) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 33%
( 2%) LLWWWL: 7.61 ( 5.67- 9.80) out
( 2%) LLWWLL: 5.02 ( 3.38- 7.52) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 107.4, #315, D5 #33), 60% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 106.9, #315, D5 #32), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 112.4, #274, D5 #28), 67% (bubble if 7-3), 31% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 114.3, #258, D5 #27), 86% (bubble if 6-4), 59% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 106.8, #300, D5 #34), 66% (bubble if 6-4), 42% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Last season 111.2