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Rankings
#60 of 107 in Division 3
#18 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #96 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D3 (-75 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 W 42-7 H #604 Whetstone (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 41 (97%), perf. rating 110
08/29 L 42-6 A #126 Poland Seminary (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 85
09/05 W 28-3 A #521 Clearview (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 116
09/13 W 46-12 H #492 John F Kennedy (Warren) (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 129
09/19 H #512 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 28 (96%)
09/26 A #527 Howland (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 A #426 Beaver Local (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/10 A #387 Struthers (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/17 H #288 Bedford (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 H #238 Chaney (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 6 (35%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.39 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.65 ( 5.23-21.42) 26% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Alliance (3-1) 13%
Lose: 9.92 ( 3.77-17.58) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(20%) 9W: 17.18 (13.19-21.42) 78% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Alliance (3-1) 13%
(29%) 8W: 14.81 (10.67-20.21) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 13%
(26%) 7W: 12.39 ( 8.50-17.24) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(17%) 6W: 10.63 ( 6.23-15.42) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 7%) 5W: 8.41 ( 5.43-12.20) out, proj. out
( 2%) 4W: 6.90 ( 5.23- 9.37) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(20%) WWWWWW: 17.18 (13.19-21.42) 78% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Alliance (3-1) 13%
(16%) WWWWWL: 14.96 (11.02-20.21) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 13%
( 7%) WWWWLW: 14.05 (10.67-18.19) 12% in, proj. out (#9-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 14%
( 4%) WWWLWL: 13.80 (10.92-17.14) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Alliance (3-1) 28%
(15%) WWWWLL: 11.93 ( 8.50-16.03) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Chardon (3-1) 29%
( 9%) WWWLLL: 10.88 ( 8.35-14.92) out
( 4%) WWLWLL: 9.31 ( 6.23-12.60) out
( 4%) WWLLLL: 8.26 ( 5.43-10.88) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 109.0, #302, D3 #60), 25% (bubble if 8-2), 2% home, proj. out at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 107.8, #306, D3 #60), 9% (bubble if 9-1), home game unlikely, proj. out at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 98.9, #374, D3 #73), 10% (bubble if 9-1), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 102.2, #347, D3 #69), 18% (bubble if 8-2), 4% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 103.5, #328, D3 #67), 22% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 105.7