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Rankings
#54 of 100 in Division 2
#16 of 25 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #13 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D2 (-240 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 13-10 A #221 Boardman (0-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 126
08/28 L 20-12 A #161 Warren G Harding (1-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 15 (23%), perf. rating 118
09/04 A #65 South Range (2-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 28 (6%)
09/11 H #40 Ursuline (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/18 H #132 Canfield (0-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 14 (19%)
10/02 H #197 Maple Heights (1-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/09 H #42 Villa Angela-St Joseph (1-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #290 Bedford (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/24 A #93 Garfield Heights (2-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
2-7 record
1.71 Harbin points (divisor 90)
out of R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (bubble if 5-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.52 ( 1.48- 7.31) 41% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (1-1) 16%
Lose: 1.78 ( 0.67- 6.58) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Glenville (1-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 5W: 4.42 ( 3.90- 4.98) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Glenville (1-1) 18%
(12%) 4W: 3.48 ( 3.04- 4.07) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), Glenville (1-1) 20%
(24%) 3W: 2.63 ( 2.11- 3.09) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(32%) 2W: 1.71 ( 1.34- 2.24) out, proj. out
(24%) 1W: 0.85 ( 0.67- 1.18) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLWWLWW: 4.43 ( 4.10- 4.80) 70% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Glenville (1-1) 21%
( 3%) LLLWLWW: 3.67 ( 3.29- 4.07) 27% in, proj. out (#10-out), Glenville (1-1) 23%
( 6%) LLWWLWL: 3.37 ( 3.07- 3.89) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (1-1) 20%
(12%) LLLWLWL: 2.64 ( 2.33- 3.09) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Riverside (Painesville) (1-1) 100%
( 4%) LLWLLWL: 2.42 ( 2.14- 2.81) out
( 7%) LLLWLLL: 1.77 ( 1.52- 2.11) out
(19%) LLLLLWL: 1.71 ( 1.41- 2.09) out
(24%) LLLLLLL: 0.85 ( 0.67- 1.18) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 116.8, #239, D2 #54), 15% (bubble if 4-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 2-7
Week 1 (1-0, 117.6, #230, D2 #54), 28% (bubble if 4-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. out at 3-6
Week 0 (0-0, 105.7, #310, D2 #65), 11% (bubble if 4-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. out at 1-8
Last season 106.3