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Rankings
#60 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #7 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #67 in D5 (-258 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-14 H #82 Perry (Massillon) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 22-7 A #354 Mogadore (3-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 82
09/05 L 28-7 H #174 Orrville (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 94
09/12 L 49-20 H #227 Salem (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 73
09/19 A #111 Alliance (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 37 (1%)
09/26 H #79 Louisville (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/03 A #335 Edison (Richmond) (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/11 A #492 John F Kennedy (Warren) (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/17 H #128 Triway (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/24 A #701 St Thomas Aquinas (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 47 (99%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 1.55 ( 0.00-12.35) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 4W: 8.70 ( 5.85-12.35) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
(17%) 3W: 4.85 ( 2.75- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(55%) 2W: 1.90 ( 1.15- 5.80) out, proj. out
(26%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 2.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLLWWW: 5.35 ( 4.30- 7.15) out
(15%) LLWWLW: 4.60 ( 2.75- 7.40) out
( 3%) LLWLLW: 3.35 ( 2.00- 4.60) out
(51%) LLLWLW: 1.55 ( 1.15- 3.55) out
(26%) LLLLLW: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 91.2, #428, D5 #60), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 95.6, #397, D5 #50), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 93.5, #410, D5 #55), 10% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 103.5, #335, D5 #38), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 107.2, #295, D5 #32), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 104.1