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Rankings
#21 of 105 in Division 4
#6 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #29 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D4 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 56-23 H #446 Wooster (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 134
08/29 L 28-20 A #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 128
09/05 W 28-7 A #428 Canton Central Catholic (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 23 (90%), perf. rating 124
09/12 W 38-7 A #359 Tuslaw (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 21 (89%), perf. rating 150
09/19 H #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 A #294 Canton South (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/03 A #147 Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/10 H #560 Worthington Christian (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/17 H #177 Manchester (Akron) (4-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/24 H #128 Triway (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.05 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#9 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 6-4), 40% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.30 ( 5.38-22.94) 84% in, 43% home, 14% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), bye 17%
Lose: 8.06 ( 3.12-19.46) 42% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 9W: 20.41 (18.69-22.94) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 82%
(23%) 8W: 16.68 (14.30-20.57) 100% in, 94% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
(28%) 7W: 13.05 (10.57-17.74) 98% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 17%
(24%) 6W: 9.67 ( 7.70-14.42) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 17%
(10%) 5W: 7.45 ( 5.03-11.14) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Perkins (1-3) 20%
( 2%) 4W: 5.23 ( 3.52- 8.36) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(12%) WWWWWW: 20.41 (18.69-22.94) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 82%
(10%) WWLWWW: 17.13 (15.32-20.06) 100% in, 98% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
( 9%) WWWWWL: 16.27 (14.46-19.61) 100% in, 90% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Cloverleaf (3-1) 15%
( 5%) WWLWLW: 13.20 (11.43-16.99) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 17%
(15%) WWLWWL: 13.00 (11.18-16.68) 98% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 17%
(17%) WWLWLL: 9.42 ( 7.70-12.75) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 7%) WLLWLL: 7.50 ( 5.78-10.58) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Perkins (1-3) 22%
( 2%) LLLWLL: 5.23 ( 3.52- 7.66) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 126.8, #174, D4 #21), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 40% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 124.2, #194, D4 #25), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 119.4, #225, D4 #29), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 121.7, #197, D4 #23), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 106.8, #301, D4 #46), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 109.4