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Rankings
#17 of 107 in Division 7
#2 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #35 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #8 in D7 (+380 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 13-6 A #528 Crestwood (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 89
08/29 W 22-7 H #428 Canton Central Catholic (0-4) D5 R17, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 112
09/05 L 28-19 A #223 Dalton (3-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 31 (4%), perf. rating 107
09/12 W 28-14 A #481 Malvern (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 104
09/19 H #466 Ellet (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 H #403 Cleveland Central Cath. (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/03 A #419 Pymatuning Valley (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/10 H #690 Collinwood (0-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #701 St Thomas Aquinas (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/24 H #663 Richmond Heights (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 43 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
14.26 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 83% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.87 ( 7.30-21.62) 100% in, 99% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 87%
Lose: 11.69 ( 6.24-18.80) 100% in, 98% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 42%
Based on eventual number of wins
(50%) 9W: 17.18 (13.59-21.62) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(32%) 8W: 14.26 (10.32-19.71) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 89%
(15%) 7W: 11.38 ( 7.75-16.28) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 31%
( 3%) 6W: 9.01 ( 6.79-12.80) 100% in, 95% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Jackson-Milton (3-1) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(50%) WWWWWW: 17.18 (13.59-21.62) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 2%) LWWWWW: 14.96 (12.79-18.80) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 96%
(12%) WLWWWW: 14.21 (11.23-17.14) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(16%) WWLWWW: 14.10 (10.32-17.29) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 87%
( 1%) LLWWWW: 11.84 ( 9.57-13.91) 100% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 40%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 11.84 ( 8.96-14.41) 100% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 32%
(10%) WLLWWW: 11.08 ( 7.75-14.67) 100% in, 99% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 27%
( 3%) LLLWWW: 8.96 ( 6.79-11.89) 100% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 12%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 102.3, #354, D7 #17), appears locked in and likely home, 83% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 105.7, #333, D7 #16), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 5-5), 79% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 99.8, #365, D7 #20), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 67% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 97.9, #374, D7 #23), 97% (bubble if 3-7), 85% home (maybe if 5-5), 54% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 99.2, #361, D7 #21), 85% (bubble if 4-6), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Last season 92.6