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Rankings
#36 of 107 in Division 7
#8 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #17 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D7 (-58 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-12 A #315 Union Local (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (22%), perf. rating 65
08/28 L 36-14 A #268 Garfield (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 82
09/05 L 21-8 H #313 Liberty (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 25 (8%), perf. rating 86
09/13 L 46-12 A #302 Youngstown East (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 60
09/20 H #433 Marlington (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 8 (31%)
09/26 H #701 St Thomas Aquinas (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/04 H #663 Richmond Heights (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/11 H #428 Canton Central Catholic (0-4) D5 R17, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/18 A #403 Cleveland Central Cath. (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/24 A #381 Lutheran East (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
30% (bubble if 3-7), 6% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.18 ( 1.95-12.65) 66% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), St Paul (2-2) 16%
Lose: 2.25 ( 0.40-10.05) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Malvern (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 10.25 ( 8.85-12.65) 100% in, 91% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 16%
( 7%) 5W: 7.70 ( 5.80-11.35) 99% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 18%
(16%) 4W: 5.60 ( 3.95- 8.80) 81% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Monroeville (2-2) 17%
(30%) 3W: 3.85 ( 2.05- 6.65) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), East Palestine (4-0) 19%
(42%) 2W: 1.90 ( 1.20- 4.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 2.65) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 10.25 ( 8.85-12.65) 100% in, 91% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), W. Reserve (Berlin Ctr) (1-3) 16%
( 6%) WWWWLL: 4.95 ( 3.95- 6.95) 63% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Monroeville (2-2) 21%
( 5%) LWWLWL: 4.55 ( 3.50- 6.55) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), East Palestine (4-0) 20%
( 4%) LWWLLW: 4.45 ( 3.40- 5.90) 51% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), East Palestine (4-0) 19%
(11%) WWWLLL: 4.00 ( 2.75- 5.70) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), East Palestine (4-0) 18%
(10%) LWWWLL: 2.85 ( 2.05- 4.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Malvern (2-2) 43%
(41%) LWWLLL: 1.90 ( 1.20- 3.45) out
( 2%) LWLLLL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 80.1, #492, D7 #36), 30% (bubble if 3-7), 6% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 80.8, #493, D7 #40), 36% (bubble if 3-7), 9% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #11 at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 79.0, #512, D7 #40), 52% (bubble if 3-7), 16% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 84.3, #477, D7 #31), 58% (bubble if 4-6), 34% home (maybe if 5-5), 13% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 91.8, #435, D7 #29), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 46% home (maybe if 6-4), 24% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 98.1