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Rankings
#22 of 107 in Division 3
#7 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #61 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #16 in D3 (+148 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 25-3 A #193 Padua Franciscan (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 159
08/29 L 30-13 H #79 Louisville (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 118
09/05 W 46-13 A #175 Streetsboro (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 178
09/12 W 26-0 A #466 Ellet (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 38 (99%), perf. rating 124
09/19 H #428 Canton Central Catholic (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/26 H #227 Salem (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 H #444 Carrollton (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/10 A #85 West Branch (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/17 H #461 Minerva (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/24 A #433 Marlington (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
21.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 32% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.05 (11.75-29.35) 99% in, 91% home, 32% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 32%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 9W: 26.10 (22.15-29.35) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 82%
(59%) 8W: 21.55 (18.15-27.00) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), East (Akron) (2-2) 13%
( 9%) 7W: 18.20 (15.05-22.05) 96% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Benedictine (4-0) 10%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWWWWW: 26.10 (22.15-29.35) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 82%
( 1%) WLWWWW: 22.45 (19.25-25.45) 100% in, 95% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 21%
(56%) WWWLWW: 21.50 (18.15-24.95) 100% in, 95% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), East (Akron) (2-2) 13%
( 1%) WWWLWL: 19.17 (15.15-21.95) 99% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), East (Akron) (2-2) 12%
( 6%) WLWLWW: 17.90 (15.05-21.30) 95% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Geneva (3-1) 11%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 139.2, #111, D3 #22), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 32% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 138.1, #108, D3 #18), 97% (bubble if 6-4), 73% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 122.4, #203, D3 #40), 60% (bubble if 7-3), 24% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 127.2, #169, D3 #36), 59% (bubble if 7-3), 37% home (maybe if 8-2), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 105.6, #313, D3 #63), 19% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 98.8