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Rankings
#10 of 106 in Division 5
#3 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #6 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D5 (+442 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 23-21 A #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 143
08/29 W 36-14 H #186 Norwayne (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 156
09/05 W 45-0 H #552 Waynedale (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 41 (99%), perf. rating 132
09/12 L 32-29 A #147 Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 130
09/19 A #359 Tuslaw (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 28 (96%)
09/26 H #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 H #294 Canton South (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/10 H #177 Manchester (Akron) (4-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/17 A #428 Canton Central Catholic (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/24 A #174 Orrville (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
20.32 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.28 ( 9.73-28.14) 99% in, 96% home, 69% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 69%
Lose: 17.54 ( 8.82-24.41) 98% in, 74% home, 26% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
(47%) 9W: 24.15 (20.61-28.14) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(33%) 8W: 20.32 (16.98-25.16) 100% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 59%
(14%) 7W: 16.99 (13.50-22.24) 100% in, 91% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 18%
( 4%) 6W: 14.42 (11.59-18.81) 100% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 22%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(47%) WWWWWW: 24.15 (20.61-28.14) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 22.18 (19.15-25.16) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 91%
( 1%) WLWWWW: 21.20 (18.50-23.85) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 79%
(19%) WWWWWL: 20.22 (17.29-23.65) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 58%
(10%) WWWLWW: 20.01 (16.98-22.79) 100% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 49%
( 1%) WWLWWL: 18.55 (15.62-21.13) 100% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#8), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 16%
( 8%) WWWLWL: 16.43 (13.50-19.71) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 20%
( 1%) WLWLWL: 13.81 (11.59-16.28) 100% in, 24% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 135.8, #128, D5 #10), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 139.7, #101, D5 #9), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 85% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 135.2, #125, D5 #11), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 71% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 119.9, #212, D5 #20), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 115.5, #239, D5 #24), 67% (bubble if 4-6), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 121.1