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Rankings
#56 of 107 in Division 7
#11 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #77 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #76 in D7 (-380 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 36-12 H Perry Trad. Academy PA (0-4) D5
08/29 W 21-12 H #623 Buckeye Local (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 68
09/05 L 21-14 H #559 Monroe Central (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 58
09/12 W 42-0 A Magnolia WV (0-2) D6
09/18 H Cameron WV (2-0) D7
09/26 H #706 Federal Hocking (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/03 A #639 Shadyside (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/10 A #599 Shenandoah (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/17 H #415 Caldwell (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/24 A #640 Frontier (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
9.38 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#10 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
67% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.86 ( 4.44-17.29) 83% in, 35% home, 3% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
Lose: 7.68 ( 2.39-14.20) 51% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Trimble (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 13.71 (10.87-17.29) 100% in, 98% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 38%
(19%) 8W: 11.42 ( 8.47-14.42) 99% in, 69% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Conotton Valley (2-2) 11%
(33%) 7W: 9.38 ( 6.70-13.75) 91% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 13%
(27%) 6W: 7.72 ( 4.98-11.51) 52% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 14%
(14%) 5W: 6.16 ( 3.89- 9.53) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miller (3-1) 15%
( 4%) 4W: 4.65 ( 2.39- 6.97) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 13.71 (10.87-17.29) 100% in, 98% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 38%
(16%) WWWWLW: 11.36 ( 8.47-14.31) 99% in, 67% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 12%
( 9%) WWWLLW: 9.70 ( 6.81-13.75) 96% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
(15%) LWWWLW: 9.12 ( 6.70-12.59) 89% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 13%
( 5%) WWWLLL: 8.30 ( 6.09-11.46) 67% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
( 9%) LWWLLW: 7.46 ( 4.98-11.51) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
( 5%) LWWLLL: 6.05 ( 3.89- 8.95) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Miller (3-1) 15%
( 4%) LWLLLL: 4.65 ( 2.39- 6.97) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 64.7, #584, D7 #56), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 66.8, #579, D7 #54), 62% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 66.6, #583, D7 #54), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 69.4, #566, D7 #50), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 69.4, #559, D7 #50), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 62.8