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Rankings
#57 of 107 in Division 7
#12 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #102 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D7 (-195 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 18-15 A #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 66
08/29 W 20-14 A #640 Frontier (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 63
09/05 W 52-14 H #684 Southern (Racine) (1-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 85
09/12 L 20-18 A #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 54
09/19 H #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 14 (19%)
09/26 H #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 A #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/10 H #650 Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/24 A #693 Millersport (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
7-2 record
14.28 Harbin points (divisor 90)
#4 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-5), 87% home (maybe if 5-4), 48% bye (maybe if 7-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.17 ( 9.78-20.83) 100% in, 99% home, 90% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#12), bye 90%
Lose: 13.28 ( 4.56-18.06) 97% in, 84% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 38%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 8W: 17.50 (14.06-20.83) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(49%) 7W: 14.28 (11.17-18.44) 100% in, 99% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 62%
(24%) 6W: 11.83 ( 8.61-15.56) 99% in, 85% home, 10% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), River (3-1) 10%
( 9%) 5W: 9.67 ( 6.56-13.11) 92% in, 28% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Conotton Valley (2-2) 12%
( 2%) 4W: 7.61 ( 5.33-11.56) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWW: 17.50 (14.06-20.83) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(46%) LWWWW: 14.22 (11.17-18.06) 100% in, 99% home, 61% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 61%
(11%) LWLWW: 12.06 ( 9.44-14.83) 99% in, 92% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 12%
( 8%) LWWLW: 11.72 ( 8.61-14.78) 100% in, 80% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) 11%
( 5%) LLWWW: 11.44 ( 9.39-14.28) 100% in, 74% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
( 4%) LWLLW: 9.72 ( 7.33-13.11) 96% in, 29% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Bishop Rosecrans (2-2) 11%
( 3%) LLLWW: 9.39 ( 6.56-12.00) 89% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 14%
( 1%) LLLLW: 7.31 ( 5.33- 9.56) 33% in, proj. out (#9-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 64.0, #587, D7 #57), 98% (bubble if 4-5), 87% home (maybe if 5-4), 48% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #4 at 7-2
Week 3 (3-0, 70.0, #563, D7 #52), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 5-4), 75% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #1 at 8-1
Week 2 (2-0, 64.9, #585, D7 #55), 94% (bubble if 5-4), 82% home (maybe if 6-3), 53% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #3 at 7-2
Week 1 (1-0, 61.6, #600, D7 #58), 83% (bubble if 5-4), 64% home (maybe if 6-3), 34% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #4 at 7-2
Week 0 (0-0, 66.5, #575, D7 #54), 86% (bubble if 4-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-3), 46% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #3 at 7-2
Last season 72.2