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Rankings
#15 of 102 in Division 3
#5 of 26 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #18 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D3 (+363 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 27-24 A #140 Canfield (3-5) D3 R9, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 137
08/28 W 39-37 H #54 Cardinal Mooney (5-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 152
09/04 W 22-15 A #161 Hoover (4-4) D2 R7, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 141
09/11 L 21-20 H McDowell PA (5-2) D1
09/18 L 20-14 A #59 Villa Angela-St Joseph (6-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 18 (13%), perf. rating 142
09/25 W 26-14 H #273 Brush (5-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 28 (96%), perf. rating 129
10/02 W 40-6 A #393 Bedford (2-6) D3 R9, pick: W by 32 (98%), perf. rating 148
10/08 W 44-19 A #477 Warrensville Heights (2-6) D4 R13, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 123
10/16 H #206 Maple Heights (5-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 H #156 Youngstown (2-5) D2 R5, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
24.45 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#3 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 69% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.14 (20.13-26.70) 100% in, 99% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 79%
Lose: 20.13 (16.62-22.32) 99% in, 70% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Hawken (6-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
(68%) 8W: 24.45 (22.36-26.70) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 97%
(27%) 7W: 21.76 (18.90-24.21) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Howland (6-2) 18%
( 5%) 6W: 18.35 (16.62-20.39) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Hawken (6-2) 23%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(68%) WW: 24.45 (22.36-26.70) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 97%
(20%) WL: 22.12 (20.13-24.21) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
( 8%) LW: 20.64 (18.90-22.32) 100% in, 98% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Howland (6-2) 18%
( 5%) LL: 18.35 (16.62-20.39) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Hawken (6-2) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 140.9, #89, D3 #12), likely in and likely home, 77% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 6 (4-2, 141.2, #88, D3 #10), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 80% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 5 (3-2, 143.3, #81, D3 #9), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 6-4), 73% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 4 (3-1, 141.5, #89, D3 #10), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 142.4, #77, D3 #10), likely in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 139.6, #93, D3 #11), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 128.5, #161, D3 #23), 54% (bubble if 6-4), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 121.8, #198, D3 #36), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 133.6