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Rankings
#61 of 104 in Division 2
#16 of 27 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #92 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D2 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 55-8 H #539 Lutheran West (0-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 134
08/30 W 14-12 H Erie PA (0-4) D1
09/06 W 32-8 A Detroit Denby MI (1-2) D5
09/13 L 15-8 H Muskegon MI (1-2) D2
09/19 A #232 North (Eastlake) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/26 A #308 Brush (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/03 H #288 Bedford (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/09 H #545 Warrensville Heights (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/17 A #194 Maple Heights (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/23 A #512 Shaw (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.60 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#9 seed in R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.19 ( 5.96-24.70) 90% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 20%
Lose: 10.70 ( 2.57-21.60) 44% in, 4% home, proj. out (#6-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 20.77 (17.40-24.70) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Twinsburg (4-0) 18%
(20%) 8W: 17.16 (13.64-22.00) 99% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 24%
(26%) 7W: 13.60 ( 9.62-19.16) 89% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) 16%
(25%) 6W: 10.29 ( 7.33-15.24) 33% in, proj. out (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 21%
(17%) 5W: 7.24 ( 4.69-11.83) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 3%) 4W: 5.70 ( 3.58- 8.63) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 20.77 (17.40-24.70) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Twinsburg (4-0) 18%
( 6%) LWWWWW: 17.82 (15.12-21.60) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Twinsburg (4-0) 21%
(11%) WWWWLW: 16.49 (13.64-21.29) 99% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 26%
(14%) LWWWLW: 13.50 (10.74-17.42) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 16%
( 9%) LWLWLW: 10.65 ( 8.10-14.17) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 22%
(10%) LLWWLW: 9.94 ( 7.33-13.56) 23% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 23%
(15%) LLLWLW: 6.99 ( 4.69-11.27) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 43%
( 2%) LLLWLL: 5.72 ( 3.68- 8.02) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 112.4, #272, D2 #61), 60% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 114.2, #263, D2 #61), 76% (bubble if 7-3), 26% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 115.2, #255, D2 #59), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 115.7, #240, D2 #55), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 89.8, #450, D2 #88), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 88.5