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Rankings
#69 of 104 in Division 3
#23 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #36 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D3 (-270 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 12-7 A #207 East (Akron) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 117
08/28 W 23-20 H #327 Twinsburg (0-3) D2 R5, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 108
09/04 L 35-6 A #197 Padua Franciscan (1-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 82
09/11 H #274 Brush (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 9 (30%)
09/18 H #110 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 28 (4%)
09/26 A #668 John F Kennedy (Cle.) (0-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/02 H #77 Garfield Heights (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/08 H #220 Maple Heights (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/16 H #216 Youngstown (1-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/23 A #468 Warrensville Heights (2-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.61 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.13 ( 3.23-24.40) 12% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-2) 10%
Lose: 4.61 ( 0.60-20.94) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 17.01 (13.24-21.71) 93% in, 39% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-2) 10%
( 5%) 6W: 13.25 ( 9.88-20.08) 38% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-2) 12%
(13%) 5W: 10.15 ( 6.17-15.30) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
(25%) 4W: 7.45 ( 3.98-12.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(38%) 3W: 4.61 ( 2.36-10.63) out, proj. out
(16%) 2W: 2.32 ( 1.15- 8.14) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWWW: 17.78 (15.53-21.71) 97% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cuyahoga Val. Christian (1-2) 10%
( 4%) WLWLWLW: 10.91 ( 8.11-14.89) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (2-1) 18%
( 5%) WLWLLWW: 9.18 ( 6.17-12.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Garfield Heights (3-0) 33%
( 5%) LLWLWLW: 7.81 ( 5.11-11.89) out
(10%) WLWLLLW: 7.81 ( 4.95-11.89) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Gilmour Academy (2-1) 100%
( 6%) LLWLLWW: 6.13 ( 4.04-10.82) out
(32%) LLWLLLW: 4.46 ( 2.82- 9.05) out
(16%) LLWLLLL: 2.32 ( 1.15- 6.46) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 102.3, #354, D3 #69), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 110.3, #289, D3 #55), 16% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 109.0, #293, D3 #58), 15% (bubble if 7-3), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 103.9, #328, D3 #61), 13% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 103.3